Fig. 4: Summary performance of the ward and ICU forecasts across the study period (March to September 2022) measured using CRPS across log-transformed counts.
From: A modular approach to forecasting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy
ACT is the Australian Capital Territory, NSW is New South Wales, NT is the Northern Territory, QLD is Queensland, SA is South Australia, TAS is Tasmania, VIC is Victoria, and WA is Western Australia. a, c Forecast performance for ward (top) and ICU (bottom) by forecast horizon. Median performance (in white) and intervals for 50%, 75%, 90%, and 95% density (in purple or green) are displayed. Note the differing x-axis scale across the ward and ICU forecast plots. b, d Summary forecast performance for ward (top) and ICU (bottom) across all forecasting dates. Frequency for each state is displayed as a histogram (in black), and density underneath (in purple or green), with median overlaid (white and black points). States have been ordered according to median forecast performance. Note the differing x-axis scale across the ward and ICU forecast plots. Due to the limited x-axis scales, 14 points are omitted from the histogram for ward for the Northern Territory and 1 point for ICU for Tasmania.
