Fig. 5: Three week (days 15–21) horizon performance of the ward forecasts for the forecasts produced between March and September 2022.
From: A modular approach to forecasting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy
a–h The forecast performance over time across the eight states and territories of Australia. Light blue shading indicates alternating forecast weeks. The true ward occupancy count is displayed at the top of each panel, with vertical dashed lines indicating dates of visually distinct peaks and troughs (dotted and dashed lines, respectively) in the time series. The CRPS and bias of the forecast are displayed below, reflecting the performance of forecasted counts for that date within the 15–21 day forecast horizon. Upwards bias is displayed in magenta and downwards bias in blue. The CRPS is calculated over log-transformed counts. Optimal forecasting performance is achieved where these values are nearest to zero.
