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Land surface models often use a spatially uniform air temperature threshold when partitioning rain and snow. Here Jennings et al. show that the threshold varies significantly across the Northern Hemisphere and that threshold selection is a large source of uncertainty in snowfall simulations.

In the American west, operational forecasts for spring–summer streamflow rely heavily on snow-water storage. Simulations with a suite of land-modelling systems suggest that snow-water storage generally contributes most to forecasting skill, but that the contribution of soil moisture is often significant, too.

Climate warming causes less mountain precipitation to fall as snow. Hydrologic simulations predict that in a high-end emissions scenario, this decreases the predictability of seasonal water resources across the western United States, with low-elevation coastal areas impacted most strongly.

The Snow Storage Index – which combines the magnitude of precipitation with the delay in water input from the timing of a melting snowpack – has decreased in western North America since 1950 due to earlier snowmelt, spring rains and reduced winter precipitation

Analysis combining multiple global tree databases reveals that whether a location is invaded by non-native tree species depends on anthropogenic factors, but the severity of the invasion depends on the native species diversity.

Climate change can alter when and how animals grow, breed, and migrate, but it is unclear whether this allows populations to persist. This global study shows that shifts in seasonal timing are key to helping vertebrate species maintain population growth under global warming.

Insulin signaling plays a crucial role in coordinating skeletal development with whole‑body energy metabolism. Here, the authors use phosphoproteomics to show insulin-signaling rewiring in aged, insulin-resistant bone and identify defective phosphorylation of AFF4 as a key mechanism for regulating gene-specific transcriptional activation.

Trees come in all shapes and size, but what drives this incredible variation in tree form remains poorly understood. Using a global dataset, the authors show that a combination of climate, competition, disturbance and evolutionary history shape the crown architecture of the world’s trees and thereby constrain the 3D structure of woody ecosystems.

cellSTAAR advances noncoding rare variant association analysis by integrating single-cell genomics data.

Permanently ice-free areas, home to almost all of Antarctica’s biodiversity, are projected, in the worst case, to expand by over 17,000 km² as a result of climate change by the end of this century, with potentially deleterious consequences for the continent’s biodiversity.

Analysis of ground-sourced and satellite-derived models reveals a global forest carbon potential of 226 Gt outside agricultural and urban lands, with a difference of only 12% across these modelling approaches.

Contrary to current model predictions, this study shows that rapid permafrost thaw in well drained uplands leads to exceedingly high methane emissions ( ~ 10-60 times higher than expected) from deeply-thawed yedoma soils, particularly in winter.

Winter warming in the Arctic will increase the CO₂ flux from soils. A pan-Arctic analysis shows a current loss of 1,662 TgC per year over the winter, exceeding estimated carbon uptake in the growing season; projections suggest a 17% increase under RCP 4.5 and a 41% increase under RCP 8.5 by 2100.

Water consumption in line with natural water supply ensures sustainable and equitable access to freshwater resources worldwide. This study assesses whether renewable surface water is enough to meet people’s basic needs and, where it is not, estimates how much groundwater would be required.

Human challenge studies with SARS-CoV-2 have shown changes in the innate and adaptive immune response. Here the authors are examining potential correlates of infection in virus challenged recipients by assessing baseline immune parameters and how this predicts virus control.

An expert-elicitation process identifies current methodological barriers for monitoring terrestrial biodiversity, and how technological and procedural development of robotic and autonomous systems may contribute to overcoming these challenges.

Three techniques for estimating mass losses from the Greenland Ice Sheet produce comparable results for the period 1992–2018 that approach the trajectory of the highest rates of sea-level rise projected by the IPCC.

The nonlinear behavior of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) remains largely unknown. Here, an ensemble reconstruction of EASM rainfall since the Last Glacial Maximum is presented and five tipping points in this monsoon system are identified.

Wastewater surveillance for disease outbreaks currently requires lab testing which causes delays. Here, authors develop ultra-sensitive quantum sensors enabling 2-hour near-source pathogen detection from raw wastewater with high sensitivity and specificity, creating a portable “lab-in-a-suitcase” system.

Species’ traits and environmental conditions determine the abundance of tree species across the globe. Here, the authors find that dominant tree species are taller and have softer wood compared to rare species and that these trait differences are more strongly associated with temperature than water availability.

Alternative stable states in forests have implications for the biosphere. Here, the authors combine forest biodiversity observations and simulations revealing that leaf types across temperate regions of the NH follow a bimodal distribution suggesting signatures of alternative forest states.

In this Viewpoint, actor, author, and broadcaster Stephen Fry describes his prostate cancer journey alongside the same story from his surgeon, Ben Challacombe, enabling us to consider “both sides of the scalpel”.

A linear relationship between the sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to warming and the sensitivity of the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ to tropical temperature anomalies provides a tight constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change.

A study shows that regional atmospheric change driven by land-cover change contributes little to glacier mass loss on Tanzania’s Mount Kilimanjaro. More generally, this finding suggests that local land-cover change may have limited impact on mountain glaciers in the tropics and elsewhere, compared with that of global climate change.

Vegetation dynamics can be tracked using remotely sensed vegetation indices, but these metrics can result in conflicting conclusions. This Technical Review details the history, application and potential pitfalls associated with vegetation indices and makes recommendations for their best use.

Under global warming, arid subtropical regions are expected to get drier and expand polewards. This study uses model simulations to examine changes in hydrological parameters for the southwestern United States. The predictions for 2021–2040 show declines in surface-water availability, resulting in reduced soil moisture and runoff.

Wood density is an important plant trait. Data from 1.1 million forest inventory plots and 10,703 tree species show a latitudinal gradient in wood density, with temperature and soil moisture explaining variation at the global scale and disturbance also having a role at the local level.

Wind power is a near-zero-emissions source of energy. Although at present wind turbines are placed on the Earth’s surface, high-altitude winds offer greater possibilities for power generation. This study uses a climate model to estimate power generation for both surface and high-altitude winds, and finds that the latter provide much more power, but at a possible climate cost. However, there are unlikely to be substantial climate effects in meeting the present global demand.

Petrels are wide-ranging, highly threatened seabirds that often ingest plastic. This study used tracking data for 7,137 petrels of 77 species to map global exposure risk and compare regions, species, and populations. The results show higher exposure risk for threatened species and stress the need for international cooperation to tackle marine litter.

Emperor penguins colony occupancy is variable and chiefly estimated with remote sensing images at end of the breeding season. Here, the authors provide a phenological model that can extrapolate occupancy from sparse data and can predict phenological events, breeding pairs and fledging chicks.

From 1901 to 2015, missing and disappeared glaciers produced a rise in sea level that may enable the historical budget for global-mean sea-level rise to be closed without recourse to an undiscovered physical process.

Climate change–induced shifts in seasonal events are often studied at population levels, which can neglect the scale at which selection operates. Here, the authors show marked small-scale spatial variation for egg-laying timing of great tits and further link these changes to the health of nearby oaks.

The microbes responsible for releasing the potent greenhouse gas methane from thawing permafrost remain largely unknown. Mondav and Woodcroft et al. investigate methane flux across a thaw gradient in Sweden and recover a near-complete genome of the dominant methanogen Candidatus ‘Methanoflorens stordalenmirensis’.

MultiSTAAR provides a general and flexible statistical framework for functionally informed multi-trait rare variant analysis of biobank-scale sequencing studies by jointly analyzing multiple traits and incorporating annotation information.

A review of observation-based evidence suggests that four interconnected Earth system tipping elements have moved towards their critical thresholds, highlighting the need for better monitoring and increased mitigation efforts.