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Sea-ice expansion around Antarctica, and related surface cooling, is shown to be linked to natural long-term variability of Southern Ocean convection. Model simulations reproduce the observed trends, if they start from an active phase of convection.

Decadal precipitation changes are dominated by random natural variability, posing a challenge for projecting anthropogenic impacts. Here the authors use large suites of model simulations to show that human-induced future decadal shifts in regional precipitation can be distinguished from natural variability.

Glaciers in the Karakoram mountains have been stable in mass, whereas in nearby regions, mass loss has prevailed. Climate model simulations reveal a unique seasonal cycle in Karakoram snowfall that contributes to this pattern.

Temperature variability in the North Atlantic Ocean is the result of many competing physical processes, but the relative roles of these processes is a source of contention. Here, scientists present two perspectives on the debate.

The authors show that stationary wave interference over the North Pacific Ocean is an important driver of North American wintertime cold and heavy precipitation extremes in the present climate, but the link weakens under increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

Past studies suggest the North American monsoon will weaken in the future. Correcting for model sea-surface temperature biases, however, reveals a reduction in monsoon-related precipitation due to increased atmospheric stability.

Precipitation in austral autumn and winter has declined over parts of southern and southwestern Australia. Simulations with a high-resolution climate model reproduce many aspects of the observed rainfall decline as a response to anthropogenic changes in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases and ozone, and project significant further drying for southwest Australia over the twenty-first century.

The North Atlantic Oscillation has varied markedly on multidecadal timescales. Analyses of climate simulations show that these variations have contributed to Arctic sea ice loss, Northern Hemisphere warming and tropical storm activity.

Warming of the subsurface Southern Ocean played only a minor role in shrinking Antarctic Sea ice extent in 2016, but was critical for the persistence of negative anomalies between 2016 and 2021, according to coupled climate model simulations partially constrained by observations.

Climate mitigation efforts will decrease ocean heat uptake in all ocean basins, except the North Atlantic, where weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation leads to sustained heat uptake, according to results from climate simulations to analyze changes in global ocean heat due to a projected greenhouse gas reduction.

Multidecadal Antarctic sea ice anomalies are preceded by wind anomalies associated with the Southern Annular Mode which may induce upwelling and melting, according to a combined approach using prolonged sea ice reconstructions and coupled model simulations

El Nino-Southern Oscillation impacts on winds over the U.S. are the primary underlying physical driver contributing to skillful prediction of interannual wind energy changes, suggests an assessment of seasonal retrospective forecasts between 1991 and 2022.

The upward sea level trend along the US East Coast in response to climate warming can be predicted up to a decade in advance at a basin scale, with additional predictability from variations in the ocean overturning circulation, according to an analysis of observations and climate model predictions.

This Review considers recent advances in our understanding of regional climate change, critically discusses outstanding issues, and recommends targets for future research.