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The burden of near vision loss from 1990 to 2021, and projections until 2032–findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Eye volume 40, pages 215–222 (2026)Cite this article

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Abstract

Background

Near vision loss (NVL) represents a major global health challenge. However, its epidemiological research is less extensive compared to that of distance vision impairment. To fill this gap, this study examined worldwide patterns in NVL prevalence and disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and forecasted trends up to 2032.

Methods

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, which covers 204 countries and territories, we assessed four key epidemiological measures: prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardised prevalence rates (ASPRs), and age-standardised DALY rates (ASDRs). Future trends through 2032 were predicted employing Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modelling.

Results

Between 1990 and 2021, global ASPRs for NVL rose by 37% (95% UI: 28–46%), and ASDRs increased by 38% (29–47%). In 2021, over 1.1 billion people worldwide were affected by NVL, leading to 11.6 million DALYs. The low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) regions showed the highest ASPRs (16,252.9 per 100,000) and ASDRs (162.8 per 100,000), with females consistently experiencing higher rates than males. Projections suggest that ASPRs will continue to rise through 2032.

Conclusions

With the growing burden of NVL, it remains a significant global health issue. Consequently, focused allocation of resources toward NVL prevention and management is essential. Particular attention should be given to older adults and women, who are more susceptible to this condition.

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Fig. 1: Global prevalence of near vision loss across 204 countries and regions.
Fig. 2: Temporal trends of age-standardised prevalence and DALY rates of near vision loss by sex from 1990 to 2021.
Fig. 3: Trends and distribution of NVL ASDRs by SDI, 1990–2021.
Fig. 4: Projected trends in the ASPRs of NVL by sex from 1990 to 2032, globally.

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Data availability

The data used in this study can be derived from the GBD 2021 (Available at: https://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-2021).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Labor Health and Environmental Hygiene, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China

    Ting-Ting Gao, Xin-Yue Mu, Xin Wang & Ren-Tong Chen

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  1. Ting-Ting Gao
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  2. Xin-Yue Mu
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Contributions

TTG developed the concept for the manuscript, enrolment of participants, data gathering and drafting the manuscript, and conducted data analysis. XYM and XW critically verified the data obtained from the GBD database. RTC drafted and revised the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Ren-Tong Chen.

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Gao, TT., Mu, XY., Wang, X. et al. The burden of near vision loss from 1990 to 2021, and projections until 2032–findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Eye 40, 215–222 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41433-025-04134-0

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