Abstract
Intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) at the leaf level measures water expenditures by terestrial plants during photosynthesis, yet its global spatiotemporal dynamics and responses to water stress remain poorly understood. Using machine-learning models and carbon isotope observations in C3 foliage, here we elucidate global patterns, trends, and water-stress responses of leaf iWUE. We find high iWUE in cold, arid regions and lower values in warm, humid areas. From 2001 to 2020, global iWUE increases at 0.2 ± 0.02 μmol mol-1 year-1, with strong biome specific differences. Grasslands exhibit the highest mean iWUE but the slowest increase, whereas evergreen broadleaf forests show the lowest iWUE yet the fastest increase. iWUE rises with increasing water stress, but the rate of growth diminishes as water stress intensifies. Vapor pressure deficit influence iWUE more broadly than soil moisture. The ecological optimality model reproduces the spatial patterns of leaf iWUE and identifies vapor pressure deficit as the dominant driver, but overestimates mean iWUE and its trend. Our findings suggest that increasing water stress may slow the rate of global iWUE increase as the climate continues to warm.
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Introduction
Climate warming and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ca) change the coupling of carbon and water in terrestrial ecosystems1,2. Intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE), the ratio of leaf net photosynthetic rate to stomatal conductance (i.e., A/gs), is a key indicator for assessing plant responses to climate change3,4,5. Improved knowledge of plant iWUE is critical to a more mechanistic understanding of land-atmosphere interactions, plant function, and ecosystem vulnerability to water stress.
In C3 plant photosynthesis, leaf 13C discrimination (Δ13C) is linearly related to leaf iWUE6,7,8,9. Yet, despite providing key information for iWUE, plant carbon isotope measurements are often derived from single-site studies. Such a reliance on single-location observations introduces substantial uncertainties when isotopic data are used at larger scales, such as in global models2. Single-site datasets fail to adequately represent the diversity of Earth’s ecoregions and pose challenges in translating leaf or tree-ring isotope proxies into representations of entire ecosystems10. For example, using tree-ring isotope data to infer iWUE gives a long time series but does not cover non-forested areas11.
Leaf-level iWUE is influenced mainly by atmospheric CO2, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and soil moisture (SM). Studies using free-air CO2 enrichment experiment12 and gas-exchange methods13 have shown that rising Ca reduces leaf stomatal conductance (gs), thereby promoting an increase in iWUE. Recently, an analysis of global tree-ring carbon isotope data suggested that while elevated Ca has driven a substantial increase in forest iWUE over the 20th century, the rate of change in iWUE relative to Ca has decreased by half14. Additionally, both theory and experimental studies suggest that increased atmospheric and soil drought may enhance iWUE11,15,16. Consistent with theory, increased VPD and reduced SM have been found to reduce leaf gs6,17, resulting in higher Ci/Ca and higher iWUE, with these effects becoming more pronounced over time18,19,20. Despite advancements in understanding how rising Ca influences iWUE, there remains a gap in spatiotemporal insights into how global leaf-level iWUE responds to atmospheric dryness and soil dryness.
To quantify the global spatiotemporal distribution of iWUE, we compile carbon isotope observations from 5964 globally-distributed C3 plant foliage samples21, spanning the time period 2001–2020 while covering all continents except Antarctica, and construct global maps of carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) in C3 plants during 2001–2020 using a random forest explainable machine learning models ensemble (Methods). The resulting annual maps of Δ13C are then translated into maps of iWUE for C3 plants using Ma’s22 and Yu’s23 equations to calculate leaf-level iWUE, which incorporate the effect of mesophyll resistance gm and nonphotosynthetic fractionations (“Methods”). Based on maps of leaf iWUE, we further investigate the influence and control regions of atmospheric dryness versus soil dryness on global iWUE. Finally, we test how ecological optimality theory24,25 encapsulated in the P-model26 simulates global leaf-level iWUE distribution and trends, and discuss differences between optimality theory and observation-based estimates.
Results and discussion
Spatiotemporal dynamics of global leaf-level iWUE
We quantified the spatial distribution of iWUE in C3 plants using Δ13C of natural C3 plant foliage and well-established equations (Methods). Compared to previous studies based on in situ leaf or tree-ring isotope measurements—which are geographically sparse or biased toward forest ecosystems (unrepresentative of non-forest ecosystems11)—our study provides a spatially continuous, observation-constrained framework for estimating leaf-level iWUE across biomes. This approach addresses key limitations in spatial coverage and scaling, enabling cross-biome estimation of iWUE, and offering broader applicability for large-scale analyses of carbon–water coupling. From 2001–2020, we estimated a global mean iWUE of 55.4 ± 1.6 μmol mol−1 (mean ± standard deviation) (Fig. 1a, b). Spatially, iWUE values were lower in humid regions (mean: 52.5 μmol mol−1) and higher in arid and cold regions (mean: 60.4 μmol mol−1, Fig. 1a, b). This finding aligns with ecophysiological trade-off mechanisms through which plant foliage in cold and arid regions are subject to cold or water stress and operates at reduced gs. This leads to declines in both photosynthetic and transpiration rates11,27,28. The high iWUE observed in high-latitude boreal regions (cold) and across the Australian continent (dry) (Fig. 1a, b) may be due to the fact that the decline was stronger for transpiration than for photosynthesis29,30. Conversely, in warm and humid regions, higher water availability in soils increases air humidity and SM, leading to increased leaf gs31,32,33. With elevated gs, leaf Ci and transpiration rates rise, resulting in a decreased leaf iWUE30,34,35, as observed in tropical rainforests regions such as Southeast Asia, central Africa, and the Amazon (Fig. 1a, b). We also compared leaf-level iWUE values across plant functional types (PFTs) (Supplementary Fig. S1). We found that iWUE in non-forests tended to be higher than that in forests. Within forest types, deciduous needleleaf forests (DNF) had the largest iWUE, followed by evergreen needleleaf forests (ENF), deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF), and evergreen broadleaf forests (EBF) (DNF > ENF > DBF > EBF, Supplementary Fig. S1). For the non-forest types, iWUE was greater in C3 grasslands than shrublands and savannas.
Spatial distribution of mean iWUE (a). Latitudinal patterns of mean iWUE, with solid lines indicating mean values and shaded areas representing 95% confidence intervals (b). Spatial distribution of iWUE trends (c). Areas with significant iWUE trend (Mann–Kendall test, p < 0.05) (d). Proportion of significant trend changes in iWUE (e). Latitudinal patterns of iWUE trends, with solid lines indicating mean values and shaded areas representing 95% confidence intervals (f). Trends in iWUE for eight plant functional types (PFTs), with statistical significance assessed using two-sided t tests (***, p < 0.001, g). Proportion of change in iWUE trends for eight PFTs (h). Global iWUE anomalies, with statistical significance assessed using two-sided t tests (i). PFTs include ENF (evergreen needleleaf forests), EBF (evergreen broadleaf forests), DNF (deciduous needleleaf forests), DBF (deciduous broadleaf forests), MF (mixed forests), Shrublands, Savannas and Grasslands. N: negative trend; N*: significant negative trend; P: positive trend; P*: significant positive trend. Non-natural vegetation areas and deserts with less than 10% vegetation coverage were masked, as were grid units dominated by C4 vegetation.
Global leaf-level iWUE had significantly increased over the past two decades (Fig. 1c–i). More than half of the C3 vegetation-dominated regions of the world (e.g., cold and arid regions of North America, Amazon and Congo rainforests, and the Far East region of Russia) showed a significant increase in iWUE between 2001 and 2020 (78.9% of the grid cells, p < 0.05, Fig.1c–e). Only a small percentage of regions showed a significant decrease (0.9% of the grid cells, p < 0.05). We found a rate of increase of 0.20 ± 0.02 μmol mol−1 year−1 per year (p < 0.001) (Fig. 1i). This trend was similar to the calculated trend based on independent tree-ring isotope time series from 1966 to 2000 (0.20 ± 0.004 μmol mol−1 year−1)36. However, this trend was significantly lower than that estimated by the JULES model37 (0.28 ± 0.01 μmol mol−1 year−1, 1979–2016), representing a difference of about 40% compared to the modeled trend. There is a widespread consensus that the sustained increase in global WUE at various scales is primarily driven by the rise in Ca, i.e., the “CO2 fertilization effect”2,4,38,39,40. This is supported by plant physiological studies indicating that rising Ca promotes CO2 uptake and enhances photosynthesis in vegetation41, while leading to a reduction in gs, which in turn reduces transpiration39. This was illustrated by the 12% increase in Ca between 2001 and 2020 (i.e., from 370 ppm to 414 ppm), corresponding to the rise in iWUE of global C3 plants of about 8.5 ± 0.11%. However, atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, showing large spatiotemporal trends globally42, was also shown to increase WUE of temperate forests (based on stable isotope data in tree-rings)43, interacting with increasing Ca and global warming.
The increasing trend of leaf-level iWUE was observed in all C3 biomes, both in terms of the rate of increase (Fig. 1g) and the proportion of growth (Fig. 1h). We found that the rate of iWUE growth in the five forest biomes was generally higher than in non-forests types. Broadleaf forests (often classified as angiosperms) in particular had the highest rate of increase (EBF iWUE: 0.30 ± 0.04 μmol mol−1 year−1, DBF iWUE: 0.29 ± 0.04 μmol mol−1 year−1), which was 40% larger than that of conifers (ENF iWUE: 0.18 ± 0.03 μmol mol−1 year−1, DNF iWUE: 0.24 ± 0.02 μmol mol−1 year−1). In contrast, C3 grasses had a relatively slower iWUE growth, with grasslands increasing by only 0.15 ± 0.02 μmol mol−1 year-1 (Fig. 1g). Previous indoor experimental studies have shown that angiosperm stomata are more sensitive to elevated Ca compared to conifers and other PFTs. As a result, angiosperm gs tends to be more sensitive to rising Ca, leading to a more rapid increase of iWUE44. Our findings aligned with previous studies by Saurer et al.45 and Wang et al.46, which observed similar iWUE trends based on Northern Hemisphere tree-ring and flux tower observations, respectively. However, they differed from the results of Frank et al.4 and Mathias et al.47, who found that conifers exhibited a higher rate of iWUE growth than broadleaves during the 20th century based on tree-ring data. It is worth noting that discrepancies in absolute iWUE trends between these studies and ours may arise from differences in location (e.g., climate, N deposition), spatial scales (e.g., in situ observations versus global gridded data), study period, and methodologies (e.g., foliage, tree rings, flux towers).
Impacts of soil dryness versus atmospheric dryness on leaf-level iWUE
Our global leaf-level iWUE maps provide a crucial understanding of how water stress impacts plant functioning. We examined how means and trends of iWUE and their sensitivity to Ca varied with SM, VPD and aridity index gradients worldwide. Our findings revealed that iWUE generally increased as VPD rose and SM decreased (Fig. 2a), overall being, consistent with established theories on plant leaf ecophysiology from field observations or experiments17,48,49. Previous studies suggested that water stress-induced increases of iWUE are primarily driven by changes in gs, as plants prioritize water conservation over carbon uptake. Stomatal closure reduces transpiration more than it reduces photosynthesis11, thereby raising iWUE.
The response of mean values of iWUE to vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and soil moisture (SM) (a). The response of iWUE trends to VPD and SM (b). The response of diWUE/dCa (the sensitivity of iWUE to Ca) to VPD and SM (c). Mean iWUE along the aridity index (d; lower index indicates drier conditions). iWUE trends along the aridity index (e). diWUE/dCa along the aridity index (f). The solid lines indicate the mean values, and the shades indicate the 95% confidence interval calculated in each aridity bin through bootstrapping (n = 5000).
Importantly, however, the rates of increase in global leaf-level iWUE from 2001 to 2020 were generally higher in regions with higher SM and lower VPD (humid regions) compared to arid regions (Fig. 2b). Interestingly, the sensitivity of iWUE to Ca (diWUE/dCa) followed the same pattern, with diWUE/dCa being higher in humid regions and lower in arid ones (Fig. 2c). This pattern was consistent when mean and trend values of iWUE and diWUE/dCa were analyzed using the aridity index (Fig. 2d–f). In particular, both iWUE trends and diWUE/dCa as a whole increased with decreasing aridity (i.e., high aridity index; Fig. 2e, f). However, this was in stark contrast to the results of a regional study that concluded that the frequency of extreme heat waves and water stress events resulted in faster iWUE growth in arid ecosystems in the southwestern U.S. than in other parts of the globe11. In fact, a number of factors influence iWUE trends across climate zones, especially their interactions with water stress47. Several tree-ring studies showed that the positive effect of rising Ca on iWUE was attenuated by increasing water stress14,47,50,51. Therefore, plant iWUE in the humid zone benefited more from the increase in Ca than plants in the arid zone, resulting in a faster rate of increase in iWUE in this region. This was also verified by our analysis, with the sensitivity of iWUE to Ca decreasing gradually with increasing water stress (Fig. 2c, f), which also implied that the rate of increase in iWUE will decrease in more regions in the context of rapid global warming and aridification.
We also identified regions where spatiotemporal changes in iWUE were primarily controlled by either SM or VPD, using partial correlation analyses (“Methods”). Globally, the regions more affected by VPD were mainly located in the southwestern United States, the Amazon and southern South America, the Congo Basin in Africa, Siberia in Russia, and eastern Australia, while the regions affected by SM were more scattered (Fig. 3a). Overall, our results highlighted that VPD-induced atmospheric dryness played a dominant role in driving spatiotemporal changes in leaf water and carbon coupling in C3 vegetation across much of the globe (Fig. 3a). Specifically, VPD dominated iWUE changes across a significantly larger area (65%) compared to SM (35%) (Fig. 3a). Partial correlation analysis based on residual VPD and SM, with temperature linear and non-linear effects on VPD and SM removed, also confirmed this result, identifying VPD and SM as the dominant drivers in 59% and 41% of C3 vegetation areas, respectively (Supplementary Fig. S2). Previous studies have indicated that VPD had a more substantial effect on vegetation carbon and water cycling compared to SM52,53,54 because VPD regulates the balance between water supply and demand by controlling plant leaf water potential, thereby directly influencing water demand55. Similarly, the impact area of VPD on iWUE change remained greater than those of SM, both in all PFTs and in different climatic zones (Fig. 3c, d). This was in line with recent observations showing a sustained increase in VPD, which drove atmospheric moisture demand and contributed to rising iWUE by triggering stomatal closure15,16. This trend of VPD-induced iWUE increases has been observed in various ecosystems, including arid shrublands in the southwestern United States (via leaf carbon isotopes) and forests in Europe (via tree-ring carbon isotopes)11,15,56. Overall, our findings suggest that changes in iWUE for global C3 plants were more strongly driven by VPD than by SM (Fig. 3).
Spatial distribution of partial correlation coefficients of VPD and SM controlling changes in iWUE (a). Proportion of the area where iWUE is predominantly controlled by VPD or SM (b). Proportion of the area controlled by VPD or SM across eight plant functional types (PFTs, c). Proportion of the area controlled by VPD or SM along an aridity gradient (d). PFTs include ENF (evergreen needleleaf forests), EBF (evergreen broadleaf forests), DNF (deciduous needleleaf forests), DBF (deciduous broadleaf forests), MF (mixed forests), Shrublands, Savannas and Grasslands. Non-natural vegetation areas and deserts with less than 10% vegetation coverage were masked, as were grid units dominated by C4 vegetation.
Comparison with P-model
Last, we also investigated whether the P-model developed based on ecological optimality theory could reproduce the observed spatialtemporal dynamics of global leaf-level iWUE and its response to water stress (“Methods”). We found that overall, the P-model successfully captured the global spatial distribution pattern of iWUE and its variation across different PFTs when compared to observation-based results (Fig. 4a and Supplementary Fig. S3a). However, the model overestimated global iWUE values by about 23% (Fig. 4b, c and Supplementary Fig. S3b). Trend analysis revealed an unrealistically large and significant increase in iWUEmod (98% of the global C3 covered area) (Supplementary Figs. S3c, d, S4). The globally increasing rate of iWUEmod estimated by the P-model was 0.49 ± 0.02 μmol mol−1 year−1, which was much higher than the rate derived from carbon isotope observations. This mismatch was partially explained by the model’s overestimation of the sensitivity of iWUEmod to Ca changes (Supplementary Fig. S5). Despite this, the model’s response of iWUEmod to variations in VPD and SM gradients generally aligned with observed patterns, showing that water stress led to an increase in iWUEmod (Supplementary Fig. S6). Moreover, model-based analysis also indicated that VPD played a more important role than SM in influencing iWUEmod changes in most regions worldwide. However, the area dominated by VPD in the P-model was significantly larger than that observed in the isotope data. Therefore, our findings suggest that the P-model may overestimate iWUE patterns, trends, and responses to atmospheric dryness compared to what is inferred from leaf carbon isotope data.
Spatial distribution of mean iWUEmod (a). Spatial distribution of mean differences between iWUEobs and iWUEmod (b). Mean differences between iWUEcom and iWUEmod across eight plant functional types (PFTs) (c). Box plots display means (white dots), medians (horizontal lines), the 25th and 75th percentiles (box edges), and the 5th and 95th percentiles (whiskers). PFTs include ENF (evergreen needleleaf forests, n = 124731), EBF (evergreen broadleaf forests, n = 404627), DNF (deciduous needleleaf forests, n = 13949), DBF (deciduous broadleaf forests, n = 107884), MF (mixed forests, n = 258565), SHR (shrublands, n = 689230), SAV (savannas, n = 1102465) and GRA (grasslands, n = 927489). n denotes the number of image pixels for each PFT. Non-natural vegetation areas and deserts with less than 10% vegetation coverage were masked, as were grid units dominated by C4 vegetation.
The core of the P-model is to minimize the total costs of carboxylation and transpiration by predicting an optimal Ci/Ca ratio in plant leaves24,25,26. As such, the optimal Ci/Ca ratio serves as both a benchmark for photosynthesis models based on the P-model and a key variable for estimating iWUE (Supplementary Fig. S15). Although the P-model performs well in predicting global vegetation photosynthesis57,58,59, discrepancies arise when assessing carbon and water coupling at the leaf scale compared to our observational data. These differences, alongside with the P-model overestimation of iWUE sensitivity to rising Ca (Supplementary Fig. S5), may be related to the use of fixed computational parameters. Calculated parameters with complex background information in the model (e.g., β in ξ = √β(K + Γ*)/1.6(1 + gs/gm), see Eq. 10) can also lead to biased results when characterized as fixed values. β is the ratio of the unit cost of plant carboxylation to transpiration at 25 °C (dimensionless). β represents a critical computational parameter of the P-model, which is directly related to the accurate description of changes in plant stomatal conductance and net photosynthetic rate in response to environmental gradients (i.e., the accurate quantification of Ci/Ca)26.
In fact, there are large differences in β values across different biomes; for instance, angiosperms have higher β than gymnosperms, while deciduous plants have higher β than evergreen trees60. However, a single β value is currently used for all PFTs in the P-model developed based on the optimality theory26,58. The use of a single value introduces prediction bias, as demonstrated by a study on plant leaf traits along an altitudinal gradient based on optimality theory, which found that a single β was the main cause of the Ci/Ca uncertainty61. It was observed that the use of β estimated from compiled data to predict Ci/Ca resulted in a mismatch with observations. Predicted Ci/Ca values were generally lower than the median observed values at most sites61. Furthermore, our sensitivity analysis of iWUE to β showed that iWUE decreased with increasing β (Fig. 5). This suggests that the default β value used in the P-model may be too low for most PFTs or climatic zones. Meanwhile, the model results showed that atmospheric drought dominated iWUEmod changes in more than 75% of the global C3 vegetation cover, which may be caused by the fact that the P-model only considered the effect of atmospheric water demand on Ci/Ca and ignored the effect of soil water stress. Previous studies has shown that β decreases with increasing soil dryness, indicating that the cost of plant water transport increases as SM declines60. This bias highlights the need to carefully evaluate Earth system models that adopt similar assumptions and parameterizations, as they may misrepresent future carbon water feedbacks under climate change. Despite the bias in the P-model’s estimation of iWUE at large scales with physiological significance, we believe that the model’s performance can be improved by incorporating the observed isotope data. This would enable better estimation of the vegetation-atmosphere energy, water and carbon cycles.
Scenario I: β varied continuously from 0 to 500, with all other parameters held constant (a). Scenario II: β fixed at six discrete values, while other parameters varied continuously (b).
Vegetation plays a critical role in removing CO2 from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, a process inherently linked to water vapor loss. The iWUE, which measures the rate of carbon uptake per unit of water lost, serves as a key characteristic of ecosystem function and is central to the global cycles of water, energy, and carbon. However, the inconsistent application of iWUE across different scales and the lack of a comprehensive global measure of leaf-level iWUE has limited our capacity to characterize and understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of iWUE globally. In this study, we constructed carbon isoscapes for C3 plant leaves and utilized mechanistic equations to produce an assessment of the spatiotemporal dynamics in global leaf-level iWUE. We found that mean leaf iWUE is higher in cold and arid regions, and lower in warm and humid areas. Grasslands exhibited the highest iWUE, whereas evergreen broadleaf forests showed the lowest. Over the past two decades, global iWUE has increased significantly at a rate of 0.2 ± 0.02 μmol mol−1 year−1. Grasslands showed the slowest iWUE growth rate (0.15 ± 0.02 μmol mol–1 year−1), whereas evergreen broadleaf forests exhibited the fastest growth (0.3 ± 0.04 μmol mol−1 year−1). We confirmed that global leaf iWUE increased with rising water stress and further demonstrated that atmospheric dryness drove iWUE changes across a larger area than soil dryness. The rate of increase in global leaf-level iWUE was faster in humid areas than in arid areas. Although the spatial pattern of iWUE predicted by the P-model, based on optimality theory, was similar to our observations, the model estimated a higher mean and stronger trends of iWUE changes, highlighting uncertainties in its ability to predict coupled water-carbon responses to climate change. Collectively, these results present a framework for large-scale estimation of carbon-water coupling in terrestrial ecosystems and offer a benchmark for models predicting terrestrial carbon-water cycles. Our findings also underscore the potential for intensifying water stress to further reduce the rate of increase for global iWUE as the Earth system continues to warm.
Methods
Global leaf carbon isotope data
We used the published carbon isotope dataset of C3 plant foliage worldwide21 (Supplementary Figs. S7, S8a). The Δ13C was then calculated from leaf carbon isotope ratios (δ13CLeaf, ‰) and atmospheric carbon isotope ratios (δ13Ca, ‰, δ13Ca corresponds to the leaf sample sampling year) (Eq. 1):
The dataset collected and compiled 5964 datasets of global carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of C3 plant foliage (Supplementary Fig. S7). Specifically, we searched the literature by screening the search engines of Web of Science, Google Scholar, and China Knowledge Network using the following keywords: “C3 plant”, “leaf”, “carbon isotope” and “leaf δ13C”. The literature was selected based on the following criteria: (1) leaf samples were from natural plant plots, far from anthropogenic interventions; (2) photosynthesis type was C3 plants; (3) leaf sampling information was well documented, including sampling latitude, longitude and plant type; and (4) leaf samples were obtained between 2001 and 2020. In addition, we screened citations in this literature for other carbon isotope data from C3 plant leaves that may not have been identified by the search engine. A total of 116 papers were selected based on these criteria. When leaf δ13C data were presented in body tables or supplementary tables, we manually incorporated them into our database. When presented graphically, we manually digitized each individual leaf isotope using the digitization software GetData Graph Digitizer (version 2.25). The GetData Graph Digitizer has been widely applied in digitization processes21. Random tests in earlier studies showed no significant differences between the extracted values and the true values, indicating that the software had good accuracy62. In a few cases, when data could not be obtained from the literature, we contacted the original authors to obtain the data.
In this study, the predicted Δ13C isoscape map for C3 plants was generated on an annual scale with a spatial resolution of 0.05°. This choice was guided by two considerations: first, most of the leaf samples collected from the literature lack precise sampling months, often providing only broad time ranges, making the annual scale a better match for the temporal accuracy of the data. Second, a spatial resolution of 0.05° provided sufficient detail on geographical and ecosystem variations at a global scale while maintaining a manageable data size, thereby reducing the demands on processing and storage and making large-scale data analysis more feasible.
MODIS surface reflectance
We acquired the global 0.05° (approximately equal to 5600 m) surface reflectance (MOD09CMG) product of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations for the years 2001–2020 from the Terra satellite platform, encompassing seven spectral bands ranging from 459 nm to 2155 nm, with a temporal resolution of days. All bands were atmospherically corrected (data version 6.1). We excluded poor-quality image elements based on quality assurance bands (QA), minimizing residual contamination from aerosols, snow, shadows, and clouds. Since the time scale of the constructed isoscapes mapping of Δ13C of C3 plant leaves was interannual, we subjected the daily MOD09CMG data to annual average synthesis. The annual average synthesis helps to reduce the noise in the spectral bands on the one hand, and on the other hand, it can better capture the overall information of each spectral band. In addition, annual averaging can improve the processing efficiency of large-volume spectral data.
CO2 concentrations and δ13C
Due to the lack of a reliable and high-resolution global map of atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ca, ppm) and carbon isotope ratios (δ13Ca, ‰), we used monthly Ca and δ13Ca from the Mauna Loa station (19.54°N, 155.57°W, 3397 m a.s.l., United States), data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), for which annual averages were calculated. Subsequently, the annual averages were aggregated into raster data with a global 0.05° spatial resolution for the period 2001–2020 using the “raster” package in R.
SIF
We also use the widely used globally gridded solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence dataset (GOSIF, W/m2/μm/sr) and global spatially contiguous solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence dataset (CSIF, W/m2/μm/sr), since SIF is closely related to plant photosynthesis. GOSIF was developed and made publicly available by Li and Xiao63 in 2019 with a spatial resolution of 0.05°. CSIF was developed and made publicly available by Zhang et al.64 with a spatial and temporal resolutions are 0.05° and 4-day, respectively. We selected GOSIF data with interannual resolution, where annual values of grid cells were obtained by averaging eight days of data within each year. The GOSIF data spanned from 2001 to 2020. The CSIF dataset is developed using discrete OCO-2 SIF retrievals, MODIS remote sensing data combined with neural network algorithms. The CSIF data spanned from 2001 to 2022, and data between 2001 and 2020 were selected for this study. The annual CSIF values were obtained by averaging four days of data within each year. Compared to the discrete OCO-2 SIF, GOSIF and CSIF offer finer spatial resolution, continuous global coverage, and a longer temporal record. Finally, we averaged GOSIF and CSIF over the corresponding times to obtain the SIF variable for each year.
Geographic information
We obtained the geographic location of sample sites from the literature, including latitude, longitude, and elevation data. For altitude information of the foliage sample, original records were used if they were available in the literature. If original records of elevation information were not available, we instead extracted data from the GloElev_30as (ELE, m) product of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Historical Soil Map and Database. For isoscapes construction, we converted the ELE of 30 arcsec to 0.05°.
Climate data
The mean annual temperature (MAT, °C) and annual precipitation (PRE, mm) we used are bioclimatic variables, which were derived from monthly precipitation and temperature values to generate more biologically meaningful climate variables65. We used monthly minimum temperature, monthly maximum temperature, and monthly precipitation data (temporal resolution of months, spatial resolution of 2.5 minutes, ~0.042°) from 2001–2020 provided by WorldClim. Bioclimatic variables, including temperature, were generated using the “biovars” function of the R package “dismo”. The method for generating bioclimatic variables followed the same process as BIOCLIM in the ANUCLIM framework. BIOCLIM, originally designed by Nix66 in 1986, derives bioclimatic parameters from the provided climate surfaces based on the known habitat locations of a specific plant or animal species. MAT and PRE were used to calculate the iWUE equation based on carbon isotope estimates. Water vapor pressure difference (VPD, kPa), soil moisture (SM, mm) and downward solar radiation flux at the surface (radiation, W m−2) used in this study were obtained from the TerraClimate dataset developed by Abatzoglou et al.67, with a spatial resolution of 1/24° (~ 0.042°). The TerraClimate data take into account the influence of topographic effects. Annual VPD, SM and radiation were composited from monthly data by taking the mean. We resampled VPD, SM and radiation data to 0.05°.
To driving the P-model, required growing season temperatures were obtained from the ERA5 (WFDE5) dataset with spatial and temporal resolutions of 0.5° and hourly scales, respectively. Also, we selected the specific humidity of WFDE5 to calculate the growing season VPD according to the method of Buck68. The growing season for this study was defined with the average number of all days with a mean daily temperature exceeding 0 °C, where daily data were obtained by averaging over a 24 h period, and 0.5° was resampled to 0.05°. Since the WFDE5 data were only updated to 2019, we used a linear interpolation method combining data from 2001 to 2019 to obtain growing season temperatures and VPDs for 2020.
Land cover and aridity index data
To quantify differences in terrestrial carbon and water coupling among different PFTs, we used MODIS annual land cover data (MCD12C1) as a reference land cover map (2001–2020, 0.05° × 0.05°). We summarized the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program classification (IGBP) types into eight biomes (evergreen needleleaf forest (ENF), evergreen broadleaf forest (EBF), deciduous needleleaf forest (DNF), deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF), mixed forest (MF), shrublands, savannas, and grasslands. Shrublands included closed shrublands, open shrublands, while other land cover types were masked (Supplementary Fig. S8a). Meanwhile, the C4 vegetation percentage maps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° were resampled to 0.05°, and grids with > 50% C4 vegetation were labeled as C4 dominated areas and masked. Global C4 distribution data were developed by Luo et al. (2024)69 and span the period 2001-2019. For the missing year 2020, data from 2019 were used instead. Finally, the ratio of mean annual precipitation to mean annual potential evapotranspiration was used to define the aridity index (AI), thereby identifying arid (AI < 0.2), semi-arid (0.2 ≤ AI < 0.5), sub-humid (0.5 ≤ AI < 0.65), and humid (AI ≥ 0.65) regions (Supplementary Fig. S8b).
Construction of a predictive model for Δ13C isoscapes of C3 plants
Currently, only the leaf carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) of plants with the C3 photosynthetic metabolism pathway provides a physiologically meaningful and reliable estimate of leaf-scale iWUE, which is widely used in terrestrial ecosystem carbon and water coupling and cycling studies (see the relationship between Δ13C and iWUE presented in the next section). The leaf carbon isotopes characterize the trade-off between leaf photosynthesis and transpiration at the in situ level and need to be extrapolated to the regional or global scale (Supplementary Text 1 and Supplementary Text 2). To enable Δ13C isoscape mapping, we used the collected satellite spectral reflectance (seven spectral bands), atmospheric CO2 concentration (Ca), vegetation physiology (solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence, SIF), and geographic information (longitude, latitude, elevation). We used information from the location of leaf samples and the year of sampling to extract annual means in seven spectral bands, annual means of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and carbon isotopes, annual means of SIF, and elevation information. The δ13Ca of atmospheric CO2 are used to calculate the Δ13C (Eq. 1), and the atmospheric CO2 concentration was used to predict the Δ13C.
Before constructing isoscapes of leaf carbon isotopes in C3 plants, we needed to filter the selected predictor variables. Because not all predictor variables are relevant for the construction of leaf Δ13C isoscapes, variable importance needs to be assessed. Redundancy among variables were reduced by selecting the minimum number of variables able to provide accurate predictions. This could reduce model computation time and potentially improve prediction accuracy70. We used the vifstep function (multicollinearity test, Eq. 2) of the “usdm” R package71 and the recursive feature elimination (RFE, Eq. 3) of the “Caret” package72 to filter the optimal number of predictor variables. When the multicollinearity test showed that the variance inflation factor (VIF) of a predictor variable was greater than 1073,74,75, the variable was discarded because of its high correlation with other variables. RFE constructs a model based on the recursive removal of predictor variables and identifies which variables should be kept in the model to obtain a high level of prediction accuracy (Cross-validation via ten-fold). In the process of determining the predictor variables, we first performed a multicollinearity test on the predictor variables and then performed feature selection on the predictor variables that passed the multicollinearity test.
where VIF is the predictor variable that passed the multicollinearity test; RFE is the predictor variable that passed the feature selection; B1-B7 are the reflectance variables in the seven spectral bands observed by MODIS; SIF is the solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence variable; Ca is the atmospheric CO2 concentration; Lat, Long, and ELE are latitude, longitude, and elevation, respectively. These predictor variables are closely related to plant structure and function and can characterize the physiological and ecological information of plants. B3, B5, B7, GOSIF, Ca, Lat, Long and ELE were retained based on multicollinearity test (Supplementary Table 2) and RFE filtering (Supplementary Fig. S9).
Machine learning methods have been used extensively to upscale in situ observations to regional or global. Machine learning algorithms can consider nonlinear relationships between explanatory and response variables and are capable of integrating continuous and discrete variables76. Here, we used the Random Forest algorithm to construct a global Δ13C isoscapes of C3 plant leaves based on Wang et al.21 (Eq. 4).
Meanwhile, in order to achieve the Random Forest model to reach the optimal state, the hyperparameters of the model needed to be optimized iteratively. We optimized the two most critical hyperparameters of random forest, namely ntree (100 ~ 1000, divided into 10 levels with an interval of 100) and mtry (1 ~ 10, divided into 10 levels with an interval of 1), and set the random forest algorithm to go through 100 iterations (10 × 10). We determined the optimal hyperparameters based on the highest R2 and the lowest RMSE value, and the iterative optimization showed that the best ntree and mtry values were 1000 and 2, respectively.
We used three evaluation schemes, (i) training set (70%)-test set (30%), (ii) ten-fold cross-validation, (iii) 100 random resampling, and four statistical criteria, namely, correlation coefficient (R), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE), to evaluate the performance of the constructed Random Forest model for predicting the performance of the C3 plant leaves for Δ13C isoscapes. Furthermore, to remove the interference of the C4 photosynthetic pathway, we defined grid cells with pixel values greater than 50% on the C4 vegetation cover map as dominated by C4 plants and then masked these areas from the predicted Δ13C isoscapes of C3 plant leaves globally21.
Estimation of iWUE based on Δ13C of C3 plant leaves
Intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) was defined as the ratio of net photosynthetic rate (A) and stomatal conductance (gs), and the calculation process depended on the atmospheric CO2 concentration (Ca) and the leaf intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) (Eq. 5):
Ci/Ca can be estimated from leaf Δ13C (Eq. 6), and estimation methods based on leaf carbon isotope composition can directly obtain water use efficiency (intrinsic water use efficiency, iWUE), which was first developed by Farquhar et al.34. It is worth noting that the Farquhar version of the discrimination equation ignored the effects of mesophyll conductance and non-photosynthetic fractionations (Supplementary Text 2). In order to improve the accuracy of the estimation, Ma et al.22 and Yu et al.23 proposed an improved version of the formula (Eq. 7), by taking into account the parameters of mesophyll conductance and nonphotosynthetic fractionations:
where 1.6 is the diffusion ratio of water vapor to CO2 as it passes through leaf stomata; a and b are the fractionation coefficients for CO2 as it diffuses through leaf stomata (4.4 ‰) and Rubisco carboxylation process (29 ‰), respectively; f denotes the fractionations due to photorespiratory fractionation (11‰); Γ* is the carbon dioxide compensation point in the absence of mitochondrial respiration (Eq. 8)77; and gs/gm is the ratio of the stomatal conductance to the mesophyll conductance, Ma et al.22 found gs/gm to be 0.79 ± 0.07 for species of different PFTs under wet versus water stress conditions based on a meta-analysis (Supplementary Text 2); dLeaf (2.5‰) is the isotope correction of bulk leaf biomass to account for nonphotosynthetic effects23; am is the fractionation of CO2 during solubilization and diffusion in chloroplasts (1.8‰).
where T (°C) is leaf temperature, which we represented as a calculated biometeorological variable of air temperature due to the lack of measured data.
To achieve iWUE of leaves with physiological significance globally, we borrowed the idea of biogeochemical process modeling and raster pixelized each computational parameter in iWUE according to the size of the study area (global scale) and to the set spatial and temporal resolution (spatial resolution of 0.05°, and synthesized values for each year spanning from 2001 to 2020). Constant parameter raster pixels contain unique values, while variable parameter raster pixels represent continuous values. It should be emphasized that an important step in realizing this work was the construction of isoscapes of Δ13C for C3 plant leaves around the globe. The calculated parameters of the rasterization were then substituted into the equation calculations to obtain the iWUE of a large scale with physiological significance (Supplementary Text 2).
Estimation of iWUE based on the P-model
Optimality theory assumes that plants influence leaf intercellular CO2 concentration by regulating the degree of leaf stomatal opening and closing during long-term evolutionary and short-term growth stages to minimize the total cost of maintaining carboxylation and transpiration capacity24,25,26. Based on this theory, the iWUE equation parameter Ci/Ca (considering the effect of gm, substituting Cc/Ca for Ci/Ca) can be estimated by the P-model developed by optimality theory26, i.e., Eq. 9 and Eq. 10:
where the units of all parameters in Eqs. 9 and 10 based on the P-model need to be standardized to Pa, and the final Ci/Ca obtained is a dimensionless value. VPD is the growing season saturated water vapor pressure deficit; β is a dimensionless constant, estimated to be 343 (considering the effect of gs/gm) based on Wang et al.26; K is the effective Michaelis-Menten coefficient for Rubisco enzyme at a given atmospheric pressure and temperature; Γ* is the carbon dioxide compensation point; Wang et al.26 used unpublished data from I.J. Wright to obtain a median gs/gm of 1.4. The χ estimated based on the P-model (Supplementary Fig. S15) was consistent with the results of Wang et al.26. The calculated χ (Ci/Ca) was finally substituted into the iWUE calculation formula, i.e., Eq. 11 or Eq. 12:
where the Ca unit entered in iWUEmod is μmol/mol, so the iWUE unit obtained is μmol/mol.
Estimating the sensitivity of iWUE to Ca
We used multiple linear regression78 (Eq. 13) to calculate the sensitivity of iWUE to Ca, the rate of change of iWUE with respect to Ca, for each pixel, taking into account the effects of VPD, MAT, SM, and radiation:
where diWUE/dCa is the sensitivity of iWUE to Ca, β1, β2, β3 and β4 are the regression coefficients, and \(\varepsilon\) is the residual error term; Ca, VPD, MAT, SM, and radiation are annual averages.
Statistical analyses
We used the Theil-Sen Median method at the raster pixel scale to quantify the spatial patterns of temporal trends for iWUE at the global scale from 2001 to 202079. The Mann-Kendall method was then used to test the significance of the trend, which indicates a significant trend change when p < 0.05. Both methods are nonparametric trend statistics and tests that have been widely used in the analysis of spatial time series data80. We also quantified the latitudinal patterns of global annual mean iWUE. Trends in iWUE were calculated globally and over different PFTs regions using ordinary least squares.
We conducted a statistical analysis of the differences of mean iWUE for the eight biomes based on the 2020 land cover raster data. Because we analyzed data for global raster pixels, the parameter analysis data volume was large. We adopted the Kruskal-Wallis H-test and Dunn’s test, which allowed us to determine whether there was a difference in median values between two or more biomes. These two tests are non-parametric and did not require the assumption that the data conformed to normal distribution or chi-square, and the Dunn test was realized by the R package “dunn.test”. In addition, we calculated the proportion of changes in the eight biomes over the past two decades based on the 2020 land cover data.
We used partial correlation analysis to assess the effects of atmospheric dryness (VPD) and soil dryness (SM) on iWUE means. This method controlled for the influence of one variable while evaluating the partial relationship of the other with the response variable81. To identify the dominant driver of iWUE, we ranked VPD and SM based on the absolute values of their partial correlation coefficients in each grid cell82. In addition, given that the climatic effect of VPD inherently includes a temperature component, and that plants assimilation exhibit a nonlinear optimum response to temperature83,84, this may bias the attribution of iWUE in boreal regions. To address this, we further computed the correlations between iWUE and residuals of VPD and SM (obtained after removing both linear and non-linear influence of air temperature). Specifically, we first applied regression models including both linear and quadratic terms to remove temperature-driven components from VPD and SM, and then treated the residuals as temperature-independent indicators of water stress.
Reporting summary
Further information on research design is available in the Nature Portfolio Reporting Summary linked to this article.
Data availability
The data used in this study are openly available in the following databases. The MOD09CMG are downloaded from the LP DAAC (Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center) of the USGS (United States Geological Survey) (https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mod09cmgv061/). GOSIF and CSIF are obtained from https://doi.org/10.11888/Ecolo.tpdc.271751 and https://globalecology.unh.edu/data.html, respectively. Atmospheric CO2 concentration (Ca) and carbon isotope ratios (δ13 Ca) are available on the World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) (https://gaw.kishou.go.jp/). GloElev_30as are downloaded from https://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-survey/. MOD12C1 are from https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mcd12c1v006/. C4 Vegetation Percentage data are downloaded from https://zenodo.org/records/10516423. The aridity index is available from https://cgiarcsi.community/data/global-aridity-and-pet-database/. WorldClim data are from https://www.worldclim.org/. VPD, SM, and radiation are obtained from https://www.climatologylab.org. ERA5 (WFDE5) data are from https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.20d54e34. The download links for parameters are provided in Supplementary Table 1. The data underlying the results are available at: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.27261399.
Code availability
The primary code used to generate the results is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.27261399.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2024YFF1309000, Z.F.), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 42471122 and 32588202, Z.F.; No. 32371683, G.C.), the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. 2024000275, Z.F.), and the NSFC Excellent Young Scientists Fund (Overseas). We acknowledges Xiaowei Li, Edmund February, Gustavo Saiz, and Ralf Kiese for the leaf isotope data. T.F.K acknowledge support by the LEMONTREE (Land Ecosystem Models based On New Theory, Observation and Experiments) project, funded through the generosity of Eric and Wendy Schmidt by recommendation of the Schmidt Futures program. T.F.K. acknowledges additional support from a NASA Carbon Cycle Science Award 80NSSC21K1705. J.P. acknowledges support by the grant TED2021-132627 B–I00 funded by the Spanish MCIN, AEI/10.13039/501100011033 European Union Next Generation EU/PRTR, and the European project CONCERTO (HORIZON-CL5-2024-D1-01). N.B. acknowledges support by the SNF project CERES (IZCOZ0_220291).
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X.W. and Z.F. designed the study. X.W. performed the analysis. X.W. and Z.F. wrote the paper with the inputs from all co-authors. P.C., L.X.W., N.B., T.F.K., M.D.K., J.P., G.C., X.Y.G., J.F.X., X.L., Q.Y.X., P.C.S., D.M., W.K.S., H.W., S.H.W., F.Y.Z. and S.L.N. provided methodological suggestions and contributed to the interpretation of the results.
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Wang, X., Fu, Z., Ciais, P. et al. Global distribution and changes of leaf-level intrinsic water use efficiency and their responses to water stress. Nat Commun 17, 1530 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68252-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68252-9







