Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Article
  • Published:

Technological improvements in EV batteries offset climate-induced durability challenges

Nature Climate Change (2026)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are key to transportation decarbonization, yet their battery performance and longevity are vulnerable to temperature extremes, which will be affected by climate change. Battery technology advancements moderate this vulnerability, a dynamic rarely captured in technology assessments under future climates. Here we show that technological advancements have largely mitigated battery lifetime reductions driven by climate change. We combine bottom-up EV simulation and battery degradation models with high-resolution downscaled climate data, capturing warming and variability, for 300 global cities. Under 2 °C warming, old (2010–2018) batteries would experience lifetime declines of 8% (average) and 30% (maximum), whereas new batteries (2019–2023) would experience lifetime declines of 3% (average) and 10% (maximum). New batteries also mitigate regional inequities in battery lifetime reductions driven by climate change. Increasing cell temperature primarily drives lifetime declines. Our findings emphasize climate adaptation co-benefits from technological advancement and increasing thermal resiliency of emerging battery technologies.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on SpringerLink
  • Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Impact of climate change and technological progress on battery lifetimes.
Fig. 2: Old and new battery lifetimes.
Fig. 3: Battery lifetime changes due to climate change.
Fig. 4: Battery lifetime changes by region.
Fig. 5: Decomposition of factors affecting battery lifetime.

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The input climate data for eight CMIP6 GCMs are derived from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/). The ERA5 dataset is derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=download). The GDP information is derived from World Bank World Development Indicators. Figures 2 and 3 use global background maps from Natural Earth (https://naturalearthdata.com/). The data generated in this work are available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17173892 (ref. 52).

Code availability

Code for creating the figures in the main text and data generated are available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17173892 (ref. 52) and https://github.com/ASSET-Lab/EVBatteryClimateChange.

References

  1. Jaramillo, P. et al. in Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Shukla, P. et al.) Ch. 10 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2022).

  2. Global EV Outlook 2025: Outlook for Energy Demand (IEA, 2025).

  3. Global EV Outlook 2024: Trends in Electric Cars (IEA, 2024).

  4. Schleussner, C.-F. et al. Overconfidence in climate overshoot. Nature 634, 366–373 (2024).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Lee, J.-Y. et al. in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) Ch. 4 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).

  6. Pryor, S. C., Barthelmie, R. J., Bukovsky, M. S., Leung, L. R. & Sakaguchi, K. Climate change impacts on wind power generation. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 1, 627–643 (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Sherman, P., Song, S., Chen, X. & McElroy, M. Projected changes in wind power potential over China and India in high resolution climate models. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 034057 (2021).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Shi, M., Lu, X. & Craig, M. T. Climate change will impact the value and optimal adoption of residential rooftop solar. Nat. Clim. Chang. 14, 482–489 (2024).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Feron, S., Cordero, R. R., Damiani, A. & Jackson, R. B. Climate change extremes and photovoltaic power output. Nat. Sustain. 4, 270–276 (2021).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Li, D. et al. High mountain Asia hydropower systems threatened by climate-driven landscape instability. Nat. Geosci. 15, 520–530 (2022).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Zhang, Q. et al. Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia’s water tower. Nature 615, 87–93 (2023).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Ahmad, A. Increase in frequency of nuclear power outages due to changing climate. Nat. Energy 6, 755–762 (2021).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Yang, F., Xie, Y., Deng, Y. & Yuan, C. Predictive modeling of battery degradation and greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. state-level electric vehicle operation. Nat. Commun. 9, 2429 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Xu, C. et al. Electric vehicle batteries alone could satisfy short-term grid storage demand by as early as 2030. Nat. Commun. 14, 119 (2023).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Pender, J. P. et al. Electrode degradation in lithium-ion batteries. ACS Nano 14, 1243–1295 (2020).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  16. Schimpe, M. et al. Comprehensive modeling of temperature-dependent degradation mechanisms in lithium iron phosphate batteries. J. Electrochem. Soc. 165, A181 (2018).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  17. T. Adebanjo, I. et al. A comprehensive review of lithium-ion battery components degradation and operational considerations: a safety perspective. Energy Adv. 4, 820–877 (2025).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Woody, M., Keoleian, G. A. & Vaishnav, P. Decarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030. Nat. Commun. 14, 7077 (2023).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Horesh, N., Trinko, D. A. & Quinn, J. C. Comparing costs and climate impacts of various electric vehicle charging systems across the United States. Nat. Commun. 15, 4680 (2024).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. Weng, A., Dufek, E. & Stefanopoulou, A. Battery passports for promoting electric vehicle resale and repurposing. Joule 7, 837–842 (2023).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Harlow, J. E. et al. A wide range of testing results on an excellent lithium-ion cell chemistry to be used as benchmarks for new battery technologies. J. Electrochem. Soc. 166, A3031 (2019).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. Wassiliadis, N. et al. Quantifying the state of the art of electric powertrains in battery electric vehicles: range, efficiency, and lifetime from component to system level of the Volkswagen ID.3. eTransportation 12, 100167 (2022).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Svens, P. et al. Evaluating performance and cycle life improvements in the latest generations of prismatic lithium-ion batteries. IEEE Trans. Transp. Electrif. 8, 3696–3706 (2022).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Frith, J. T., Lacey, M. J. & Ulissi, U. A non-academic perspective on the future of lithium-based batteries. Nat. Commun. 14, 420 (2023).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. Izaguirre, C., Losada, I. J., Camus, P., Vigh, J. L. & Stenek, V. Climate change risk to global port operations. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 14–20 (2021).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Byers, E. A., Coxon, G., Freer, J. & Hall, J. W. Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain. Nat. Commun. 11, 2239 (2020).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  27. van Ruijven, B. J., De Cian, E. & Sue Wing, I. Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change. Nat. Commun. 10, 2762 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Melvin, A. M. et al. Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, E122–E131 (2017).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. Liu, K., Wang, Q., Wang, M. & Koks, E. E. Global transportation infrastructure exposure to the change of precipitation in a warmer world. Nat. Commun. 14, 2541 (2023).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  30. Wu, H., Kong, Q., Huber, M., Sun, M. & Craig, M. T. Climate change will increase high-temperature risks, degradation, and costs of rooftop photovoltaics globally. Joule 10, 102218 (2025).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Jung, C. & Schindler, D. Development of onshore wind turbine fleet counteracts climate change-induced reduction in global capacity factor. Nat. Energy 7, 608–619 (2022).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model. Dev. 9, 1937–1958 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Rogers, E. M., Singhal, A. & Quinlan, M. M. in An Integrated Approach to Communication Theory and Research (eds Stacks, D. W. & Salwen, M. B.) Ch. 27 (Routledge, 2014).

  34. Standard 169-2013: Climatic Data for Building Design Standards (ANSI/ASHRAE, 2013).

  35. Ahmed, S. et al. Understanding the formation of antiphase boundaries in layered oxide cathode materials and their evolution upon electrochemical cycling. Matter 4, 3953–3966 (2021).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  36. Lee, Y.-G. et al. High-energy long-cycling all-solid-state lithium metal batteries enabled by silver-carbon composite anodes. Nat. Energy 5, 299–308 (2020).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  37. McBrayer, J. D. et al. Calendar aging of silicon-containing batteries. Nat. Energy 6, 866–872 (2021).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  38. Zhang, C. et al. An electron-blocking interface for garnet-based quasi-solid-state lithium-metal batteries to improve lifespan. Nat. Commun. 15, 5325 (2024).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  39. Gossling, S., Neger, C., Steiger, R. & Bell, R. Weather, climate change, and transport: a review. Nat. Hazards 118, 1341–1360 (2023).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Gaete-Morales, C., Kramer, H., Schill, W.-P. & Zerrahn, A. An open tool for creating battery-electric vehicle time series from empirical data, emobpy. Sci. Data 8, 152 (2021).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Brown, P. T. et al. Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in california. Nature 621, 760–766 (2023).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  42. Gueret, A., Schill, W.-P. & Gaete-Morales, C. Impacts of electric carsharing on a power sector with variable renewables. Cell Reports Sustain 1, 100241 (2024).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Mohan, A., Sripad, S., Vaishnav, P. & Viswanathan, V. Trade-offs between automation and light vehicle electrification. Nat. Energy 5, 543–549 (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Rotondo, G., Prina, M. G., Manzolini, G. & Sparber, W. Evaluating hourly charging profiles for different electric vehicles and charging strategies. J. Energy Storage 95, 112388 (2024).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Teichert, O., Müller, F. & Lienkamp, M. Techno-economic design of battery thermal management systems in different climates. J. Energy Storage 48, 103832 (2022).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Blast: battery lifetime analysis and simulation tool suite (NREL, 2024).

  47. Gasper, P. et al. Degradation and modeling of large-format commercial lithium-ion cells as a function of chemistry, design, and aging conditions. J. Energy Storage 73, 109042 (2023).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Ou, S. Estimate long-term impact on battery degradation by considering electric vehicle real-world end-use factors. J. Power Sources 573, 233133 (2023).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  49. Mitchell, D. et al. Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design. Geosci. Model. Dev. 10, 571–583 (2017).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  50. Vecellio, D. J., Kong, Q., Kenney, W. L. & Huber, M. Greatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 120, e2305427120 (2023).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  51. Manoli, G. et al. Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population. Nature 573, 55–60 (2019).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  52. Wu, H. EVBatteryClimateChange. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17173892 (2026).

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank Advanced Research Computing at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, for high-performance computing and storage resources. We thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant nos. 72595830/72595831 and 72571007 (to M.S.). We thank the US National Science Foundation under grant no. 2142421 for funding (to M.T.C.).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School for Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China

    Haochi Wu

  2. Department of Control Science and Systems Engineering, School of Advanced Manufacturing and Robotics, Peking University, Beijing, China

    Haochi Wu & Mingyang Sun

  3. School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

    Haochi Wu, Jiahui Chen, Parth Vaishnav & Michael T. Craig

  4. Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

    Michael T. Craig

Authors
  1. Haochi Wu
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jiahui Chen
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Parth Vaishnav
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Mingyang Sun
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Michael T. Craig
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

H.W., P.V. and M.T.C. designed the research. H.W. and J.C. performed the research. M.S. contributed to conceptualization. H.W. and M.T.C. wrote the original draft. M.S. conducted formal analysis. M.T.C. and M.S. acquired the financial support for the project. J.C., P.V., M.S. and M.T.C. reviewed and edited the final manuscript. All authors contributed to the discussions on the framework and the editing of this article.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Mingyang Sun or Michael T. Craig.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Peer review

Peer review information

Nature Climate Change thanks Viet Nguyen-Tien and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information (download PDF )

Supplementary Figs. 1–22 and Notes 1–8.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wu, H., Chen, J., Vaishnav, P. et al. Technological improvements in EV batteries offset climate-induced durability challenges. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02579-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Version of record:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02579-z

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing