Introduction

Climate change is defined as a change in the composition of the atmosphere, whether directly or indirectly caused by human activity, that exceeds the normal fluctuations of natural climate patterns (Lynas et al., 2021; Motanya & Valera, 2016). In recent years, climate change has led to numerous environmental alterations, including reduced precipitation, soil erosion, and crop decline, while simultaneously increasing the risk of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, and fires. These phenomena pose a serious threat to the human living environment, particularly agricultural production (Allen, 2018; Coumou & Rahmstorf, 2012). As noted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2018), climate change is one of the most significant challenges facing humanity. Currently, understanding the perceptions of diverse populations regarding climate change and their environmental behaviors remains a central focus of global research efforts (Masud et al., 2015; Sendek-Matysiak et al., 2023; Wicker & Becken, 2013).

The livelihoods of farmers are closely interconnected with ecological stability and food production across various scales. Their attitudes and behaviors toward climate change can significantly influence regional ecological policies and economic strategies (Niles & Hammond Wagner, 2019). Although extensive research has examined farmers’ perspectives, studies focusing on those in regions with extreme climatic and geographical conditions, such as high-altitude plateaus, are still limited but hold significant value. As indicated by previous research, farmers’ perceptions and adaptive behaviors can vary considerably due to regional differences in geography and climate change impacts, as well as disparities in education levels and cultural norms (Azadi et al., 2019; Chatrchyan et al., 2017; Lee et al., 2015; Zhai et al., 2018).

This study focuses on farmers residing in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in northwestern China, aiming to explore their specific perceptions and attitudes towards climate change, as well as their adaptive behaviors. Additionally, the study seeks to develop a theoretical model to explain and predict the climate-adaptive behaviors of farmers living in high-altitude plateau regions. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is also known as the “Roof of the World” because of its average elevation of 4,383 meters. This region is a vital base for agriculture and pastoral activities in China. As of 2020, the population of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region was approximately 12.4 million, with 52% of the residents deriving their primary livelihood from agriculture (Wei et al., 2020). In recent decades, the region has experienced increasingly severe impacts from extreme weather events and climate change, including intensified droughts, more frequent snowstorms, and grassland degradation. These challenges not only significantly increase livelihood risks for local farmers and herders (Wang et al., 2021; Yeh et al., 2014), but also post threats to water resources, food security, and ecological stability in China and neighboring countries (Holway et al., 2025; Zhang et al., 2013). Within this context, it is imperative to investigate the attitudes and actions of farmers on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in response to climate change.

To accomplish the research objectives, this study employed an exploratory-explanatory sequential approach, integrating semi-structured interviews as study 1 and questionnaire surveys as study 2 (Creswell & Clark, 2017). Study 1 involved in-depth interviews with farmers from the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, aiming to explore their specific perceptions and beliefs about climate change, assess the challenges they face in agricultural production, and identify the adaptive strategies they employ. It allows researchers uncover and identify the unique attitudes and behaviors of farmers on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau that may not be captured by previous explanatory models. Study 2 designed a questionnaire survey based on the findings from interviews and the existing literature, aiming to develop a theoretical model to explain and predict the climate-adaptive behaviors of farmers on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and other high-altitude regions with similar conditions.

Previous studies indicate that climate-adaptive strategies and behaviors are highly dependent on regional and environmental factors. Investigating people’s adaptive behaviors in various environmental conditions will enrich the literature, expand our understanding of the complexities and varieties of behavior, and provide insights into sustainable livelihoods for human beings on earth.

Literaturereview

Theoretical framework for climate perception and adaptive behaviors

Past research typically adopts two theoretical approaches—the psychological approach and the combined psychological and contextual approach—to examine the factors influencing the mitigation and adaptation behaviors in response to climate change. The early psychological approach relies on the theory of planned behavior(Ajzen, 1991), the norm activation model (Schwartz, 1977), and the value-belief-norm theory (Stern et al., 1999) to construct models to explain how individual psychological factors, such as attitudes, beliefs, and risk perception, shape environmental behaviors (Arbuckle et al., 2013; Azadi et al., 2019; Klöckner & Blöbaum, 2010). For instance, the value-belief-norm theory has been applied to understand farmers’ willingness to adopt climate-friendly practices, suggesting that those who hold stronger environmental values and who believe in the anthropogenic causes of climate change are more likely to engage in adaptive behaviors (Arbuckle et al., 2013).

While the psychological models have yielded valuable insights, they may inadvertently oversimplify the complex decision-making processes underlying climate change adaptation, particularly in diverse contexts. Furthermore, these models may not fully account for the barriers that individuals encounter when attempting to adapt to climate change. Acknowledging the limitations of the previous approach, subsequent scholars have incorporated contextual factors into the explanatory model (Li et al., 2019; Tian & Liu, 2022). This combined psychological and contextual approach is originally inspired by the attitude-behavior-context (ABC) theory proposed by Guagnano et al. (1995), which posits that environmental behavior (B) results from the interaction between individual attitudinal variables (A) and contextual factors (C). This more comprehensive approach facilitates a nuanced understanding of how diverse factors, such as demographic characteristics, knowledge levels, personal experiences, and external constraints or opportunities, influence adaptive behaviors (Lujala & Lein, 2020). The current study adopts the ABC theory as its primary theoretical framework to examine the complex factors affecting the adaptive behaviors of farmers.

Climate-adaptive behaviors in high-altitude regions

Climate-adaptive behaviors typically encompass the strategies and actions implemented by individuals and communities at various levels to mitigate the effects of current and anticipated climate change on both natural and human systems (Metz et al., 2007). Individual adaptive behaviors are the discrete and empirically observable practices that serve to implement broader household-level strategies, such as livelihood diversification or land-use modifications (Carman & Zint, 2020). Although household-level strategies provide the critical framework for decision-making, the adaptive behaviors of individual farmers are crucial in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change.

Farmers’ adaptive behaviors are shaped not only by their beliefs, attitudes, and values regarding the impacts of climate change (Moridi et al., 2025), but also by local environmental, economic, and socio-cultural factors (Cano & Castro Campos, 2024; Hua Li et al., 2023). Based on observations by Chen et al. (2018) in the desert and Gobi regions of Gansu Province in Northwest China, farmers have implemented long-term adaptation strategies centered on water conservation, crop diversification, and the use of breeding incubators to sustain their livelihoods. In the Loess Plateau, where farmers face challenges from landslides, water-saving agriculture (WSA) has been widely adopted as an effective strategy to reduce water infiltration and mitigate landslide risks triggered by irrigation (J. Wang et al., 2023).

According to Wang et al. (2021), in the Gannan region situated in the northeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, where blizzards and droughts have become increasingly frequent, over 80% of farmers have been observed to implement climate-adaptive strategies, including adjusting cultivation seasons, planting artificial pastures, and reducing livestock numbers. For example, in response to the threat to livestock production posed by extreme droughts, farmers on the plateau monitor weather forecasts to ensure the safety of their livestock and adopt appropriate adaptation measures such as reinforcing shelters, increasing barn heating, reducing herd sizes, and supplementing grassland irrigation (Zhang et al., 2024).

Climate change challenges on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

As one of the largest agricultural nations and greenhouse gas emitters in the world (Teng & Wang, 2021), China plays a crucial role in addressing climate change and ensuring global food security. The ongoing warming of China’s climate, shifts in precipitation patterns, frequent extreme weather events, and natural disasters have resulted in significant losses to the lives and property of Chinese residents, posing serious threats to country’s water resources, agricultural production, and biodiversity (Piao et al., 2010). These challenges are particularly acute on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in China due to its ecological fragility and socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Its unique high-altitude environment amplifies climate change impacts through elevation-dependent warming, a process whereby warming rates increase with altitude, resulting in greater temperature rises than the global average (You et al., 2020). The accelerated warming intensifies environmental changes, for example, altered precipitation patterns, heightened droughts, and an increase in extreme weather events (Rangwala & Miller, 2012; You et al., 2020).

Farmers in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau face multiple threats, including heightened risks of natural disasters, increased health risks from shifting disease patterns, and substantial economic losses due to climate-induced crop failures and livestock mortality (Ma & Zhao, 2022; Zhan et al., 2025). As noted, extreme drought conditions in the eastern plateau have affected approximately 162,600 hectares of cropland, contributing to unprecedented drought severity not observed in the past 3,500 years (Lu et al., 2024). Additionally, the plateau’s grasslands, critical for pastoral livelihoods, have experienced widespread degradation, with 90% affected and 30% classified as severely degraded due to climate change (Dong, 2023). The cumulative effect of these factors results in highly unstable household incomes, exacerbating the already precarious economic situation for many plateau farmers.

Accelerated climate change on the plateau also disrupts hydrological cycles, with warming-induced glacier and snowmelt altering river runoff and salinity levels, thereby affecting water availability for agriculture and downstream regions (Y. Wang et al., 2023). The issue is particularly critical given the plateau’s role as the source of major rivers, including the Yangtze, Yellow, Ganges, and Mekong, which sustain millions of people across Asia (Cui et al., 2023). Farmers reliant on rain-fed agriculture or limited irrigation systems face escalating water scarcity, which further exacerbates their vulnerability (Guo et al., 2021).

The generally low level of education and high illiteracy rate among these highland farmers pose significant barriers to their ability to access, understand, and effectively utilize climate information (Guo et al., 2021; Shiyong, 2014). The educational disadvantage may further hinder their willingness and capacity to adopt appropriate adaptive measures (Wang et al, 2020).

Research on climate change adaptation in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau remains limited, despite the area’s critical importance in regional and global climate systems. Existing studies have predominantly focused on the country’s infrastructure and policy involvement (Wang et al., 2020), leaving a significant gap in our understanding of the experiences and actions of individual farmers. Thus, there is an urgent need for comprehensive and systematic investigations into the perceptions, attitudes, and adaptive behaviors of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau farmers, who are at the forefront of climate change impacts, either directly experiencing the subtle climate changes or grappling with the consequences of extreme weather events.

Study 1: In-depth interviews

Research design

The research design unfolded in two phases. Study 1 utilized semi-structured interviews to explore farmers’ perceptions, challenges, and adaptive strategies, thereby providing context-specific insights into their experiences and responses. Study 2 employed a questionnaire survey to test a theoretical model developed from both the qualitative results and existing literature. The sequential design facilitated a comprehensive understanding of farmers’ responses to climate change within this distinctive ecological context.

Research site

This study focuses on Xining and Haidong cities in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Qinghai Province, as the primary research areas (Fig 1). As the source of the Yangtze, Yellow, and Lancang Rivers, and a major distribution area for glaciers, grasslands, and wetlands, Qinghai Province plays a significant role in shaping the ecological environment of both China and Asia (Fang et al., 2018).

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
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Map of the study area (Xining and Haidong cities).

Xining, the capital city of Qinghai Province, is situated at an average altitude of over 3000 meters and is the most populous city within the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region, with a permanent population of 2.481 million. Haidong has an altitude ranging from 1650 to 2835 meters and is the second most populous city in the region, with a permanent population of 1.73 million. The areas surrounding these two cities contain the highest concentration of arable land resources in the plateau region. They play a pivotal role in food production, which is essential for maintaining regional food security and supply (Wang et al., 2024; Zeng et al., 2012). Given their geographical advantages and the significance of agricultural production, these locales have been selected as the focus of this study.

Research subjects

This study employed purposive sampling to identify and recruit appropriate participants from rural areas and farmer rest stops in Xining and Haidong. Participants were chosen based on three specific criteria: (1) extensive experience in high-altitude farming, ensuring in-depth knowledge of local agricultural practices; (2) ownership of land cultivation rights, confirming their direct involvement in farming decisions; and (3) active participation in ongoing agricultural activities, ensuring relevance to current practices.

A total of 16 farmers were selected for interviews. As shown in Table 1, the sample comprised 10 males and 6 females, with ages ranging from 36 to 57 years. Participants had engaged in agricultural production for periods ranging from 12 to 40 years, and their households owned cultivated land ranging from 5 to 27 muFootnote 1 (approximately 0.33 to 1.8 hectares). This diversity in experience and land ownership ensured a broad representation of perspectives.

Table 1 Interview participant information.
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Interviewing process

Face-to-face interviews were conducted between February and March 2024 in rural areas and farmer rest stops across Xining City and Haidong City. Each interview lasted between 15 and 40 minutes and concentrated on three specific topics: (1) farmers’ perceptions and attitudes toward climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; (2) the observed and experienced impacts of climate change on their livelihoods and agricultural production; and (3) adaptive behaviors adopted by farmers to mitigate the effects of climate change on crops and household well-being.

Prior to the interview, informed consent was obtained from each participant, ensuring ethical compliance and voluntary participation. During the interviews, the researchers used a mobile application to record the proceedings. After completing the interviews, the researchers transcribed and organized the content from the recordings.

Findings from the interviews

Climate change beliefs among farmers

Most respondents have observed distinct trends related to climate change, including rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation, based on their personal memories and experiences. As Li A from Datong County recalled: “When I was young, it was very cold, and there was still snow on the mountains in June. Now, the snow is almost gone by April.” The farmers also corroborate the phenomenon of global warming through the diversification of their crops. Fu from Qinghai shared his planting experience, noting that temperatures in Qinghai have been significantly higher over the past few decades. “In the past, the climate was unsuitable for cultivating wheat, potatoes, and canola. However, with the recent increase in temperature, these crops can now be grown successfully. The situation has undergone a complete transformation.”

Furthermore, the farmers employ fluctuations in meteorological conditions or natural disasters to gauge the extent of climate change. For instance, Li A observed that precipitation in Qinghai has decreased significantly in recent years, accompanied by an increase in pest infestations.

The farmers interviewed can consistently observe and describe the changing weather conditions and their adaptive farming experiences. However, they struggle to identify the causes behind these changes. When asked about this, most interviewees admitted to a lack of knowledge. As Fu stated, “I frequently hear about climate change, but I don’t understand how it forms or what harm it actually causes.”

Perceptions of climate change risks among farmers

It is noteworthy that most farmers regularly express concerns regarding changing weather patterns and ecological conditions that directly threaten their agricultural livelihoods. Some farmers believe that variations in precipitation levels may adversely affect their agricultural activities. The agricultural land on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is divided into dryland and wetland. Dryland refers to an area that relies solely on natural rainfall, where crops are planted without the option of irrigation or manual watering. Wetland is land that can be irrigated or manually watered. The limited rainfall, along with the existing agricultural infrastructure and the region’s unique geographical location, make it challenging to implement artificial irrigation systems on a large scale. As a result, farmers must rely heavily on natural rainfall for crop growth. Most farmers in both dryland and wetland regions continue to express significant concerns about the scarcity of water resources.

As climate change accelerates and droughts become increasingly frequent, the farmers often experience a sense of helplessness during these protracted dry spells. When describing their specific living conditions, they frequently employ the phrase “We rely on the sky for our food (靠老天爺賞飯吃,kao lao tian ye shang fan chi)” to convey a sense of resignation regarding the climatic conditions of the plateau. Some farmers, such as Su, whose farms are located in the old mountainous regions where irritation-intensive cropping is particularly challenging, are compelled to cultivate drought-resistant crops such as wheat and potatoes.

Experienced benefits of climate change

Although climate change poses numerous risks and challenges to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, some farmers in the region are experiencing tangible benefits resulting from changes in temperature and seasonal patterns. Global warming has extended the growing season in the region, which could provide farmers with more options for increasing crop yields, thereby increasing their incomes. Climate change is more favorable for farmers with wetlands. As Zhang B stated, “The hotter the weather, the better. The heat allows us to grow more crops and achieve higher yields, which means more money.” Historically, highland barley has been the primary crop on the Plateau, where it has proven to be well-adapted to the region’s harsh climatic conditions, exhibiting both cold-resistance and drought-tolerance. However, in recent years, the rising temperatures have improved the agricultural conditions on the plateau. The traditional cultivation of highland barley has gradually been supplanted by the cultivation of economically valuable crops, such as wheat, potatoes, and canola.

Adaptive behaviors of farmers

Agricultural adaptive behaviors

The interviews identified a range of agricultural adaptation measures employed by the farmers to cope with extreme weather and climate change. These measures include adjusting planting times, optimizing crop structures, developing livestock farming, using plastic coverings, and purchasing agricultural disaster insurance.

As climate change progresses, the reliability of sufficient rainfall during each planting season cannot be guaranteed. The farmers have developed their own system of “submitting to fate” to cope with the condition of scarce rainfall. As Hao explained, “Our planting method here in Datong is scheduled based on the weather conditions around the Qingming festival. We plant seven or eight days before the festival; if it doesn’t rain and we can’t wait, we just plant. Whether the seeds survive is up to fate.”

Many farmers also optimize their crop composition by adjusting to annual temperature and rainfall patterns, selecting crop varieties that are best suited to these environmental conditions. Li C shared his experience: “If it looks like a rainy year, I plant more beans and greens; if it’s drier, I stick to planting more wheat and potatoes.” By strategically mixing different crops, farmers can diversify climate risks to ensure overall yield and income stability. Developing livestock farming is another potential adaptive behavior among highland farmers. By raising animals such as pigs, cattle, and sheep, farmers not only generate income, but also have a source of food.

The use of plastic coverings, including plastic greenhouses and mulch film, is a common microclimate control strategy. These coverings provide insulation and moisture retention, helping to extend the growing season and promote crop growth under adverse weather conditions. As Bao B mentioned, “Our plastic greenhouse allows us to grow crops three times a year, mainly leafy vegetables. “ However, due to the high cost of plastic greenhouses, approximately 10,000 to 30,000 yuan per mu, many farmers cannot afford them and instead opt for the more affordable mulch film. Mulch film, which consists of plastic sheets that cover the soil surface, also provide insulation and moisture retention, but at a much lower cost, typically no more than 50 yuan per mu, making it the preferred choice for most highland farmers facing cold and dry climates.

In addition, many farmers purchase agricultural disaster insurance to mitigate potential economic losses caused by extreme weather events and to strengthen their overall resilience. As Kui noted, “Hailstorms have become more frequent and often damage our vegetable fields. I buy agricultural insurance every year to receive compensation from the insurance company in case of hail.”

Non-agricultural adaptive behavior

The interviews also identify long-term non-agricultural adaptive behaviors among highland farmers. Due to the distinctive climatic conditions of the Plateau, farmers are limited to cultivating a single crop season annually, with agricultural activities spanning approximately two weeks. Typically, planting occurs in April, and harvesting takes place in October. During the remaining months, they transition to non-agricultural activities to sustain their livelihoods. This seasonal transition is primarily manifested as migration to urban areas for employment.

During the non-cultivation period, a significant proportion of farmers migrate to urban areas to engage in various occupations such as sanitation, renovation, and domestic services, thereby supplementing their household income. Xu undertakes a variety of jobs throughout the year. She farms in the spring, harvests and sells crops in the autumn, and performs housekeeping tasks, such as window cleaning, in the summer and winter. She stated, “Farming is too uncertain. We can only live at the mercy of the weather. “ This ‘half-labor, half-farming’ livelihood model represents a distinctive adaptive response by highland farmers to the unpredictability of agricultural income in the context of challenging environmental conditions.

Summary

Study 1 indicates that the perceptions of climate change among the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau farmers are primarily shaped by three key perspectives: personal beliefs, risk perception, and the benefits of climate change. These factors collectively shape the farmers’ subjective cognitive framework concerning climate change. In response to the local weather conditions, they have implemented a range of agricultural adaptation strategies and non-agricultural adaptive behaviors (as shown in Table 2). Building on the findings of Study 1, Study 2 employs a survey method to further investigate the factors influencing the farmers’ adaptive behaviors to climate change.

Table 2 Interview summary of study 1.
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Study 2: Survey research

Establishing a research framework

Climate change beliefs

A belief is defined as a statement about the truth value of a proposition (Fischer & Said, 2021). Beliefs serve as the cognitive foundation for our responses to various aspects of the world(Ajzen & Gilbert Cote, 2008). Numerous studies have investigated how individual beliefs shape attitudes and influence behaviors, positioning beliefs as a fundamental element in research and modeling (Stern et al., 1999). Nevertheless, public beliefs are often selective, leading to discrepancies between beliefs and facts.

In the context of climate change, despite extensive research indicating that approximately 97% of climate change issues are attributable to human activities (Myers et al., 2021), public beliefs may still contradict these finding. Researchers have identified five main types of climate change beliefs: (1) trend skeptics, who deny significant changes in the global climate; (2) attribution skeptics, who attribute climate change primarily to natural processes; (3) impact skeptics, who acknowledge anthropogenic climate change but view its impacts positively; (4) realists, who accept human-caused climate change and its negative consequences; and (5) agnostics, who remain undecided about the occurrence of climate change (Petty & Krosnick, 2014; Poortinga et al., 2011; Roberts et al., 2023). These disparate beliefs may be shaped by individual experiences, sources of information, and other factors (Kahan et al., 2011), which in turn affect individuals’ perceptions of climate change risks and their coping behaviors.

Extensive research has demonstrated that individuals’ beliefs about climate change are closely linked to their risk perceptions and behavioral choices. Those who are aware of climate change are more likely to perceive risks, which heightens their concerns about potential environmental threats and subsequently influences their behaviors (Bouman et al., 2020; Roberts et al., 2023; Spence & Pidgeon, 2010). Conversely, those who are skeptical about climate change may adopt more passive behaviors in response (Whitmarsh, 2011). For instance, studies of farmers in various countries have shown that beliefs influence their risk perceptions, as well as their mitigation and adaptation behaviors (Arbuckle et al., 2013; Azadi et al., 2019; Dang et al., 2014).

The findings from Study 1 indicate that the beliefs of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau farmers regarding climate change are primarily based on their observations and concerns about local climatic and weather changes, rather than on the broader context of global warming. They demonstrate a relatively vague understanding of climate change, which may influence their perception of associated risks and related behaviors. In light of these observations and previous research, this study proposes the following hypotheses:

H1: The climate change beliefs of plateau farmers will positively influence their risk perceptions.

H2: The climate change beliefs of plateau farmers will positively influence their adaptive behaviors.

Risk perception

The concept of risk perception can be defined as an individual’s subjective assessment of the likelihood of negative outcomes (such as injury or death) resulting from specific behaviors or activities (Sjöberg et al., 2004; Slovic, 1987). Individuals typically perceive risks through direct experiences, such as personally experiencing disasters, and indirect experiences, such as learning about disasters through the news media (Wachinger et al., 2013). Moreover, it is the subjective perception of risk, rather than the objective risk itself, that is a key factor influencing behavior (Slovic, 1987).

Climate change is a complex phenomenon, presenting a variety of risks. These include health risks, such as heat-related illnesses and vector-borne diseases, as well as social and economic risks, such as food security issues (Jeong & Kim, 2023; Kusumi et al., 2017; Taylor et al., 2014; Yang et al., 2020). The extent to which the general public perceives climate change-related risks is also influenced by various factors, such as individual values, experiences, and political orientations (Steynor et al., 2021; van der Linden, 2015).

Previous studies have shown a strong correlation between public perceptions of climate change risks and their environmental behaviors. Lujala and Lein (2020) and Xie et al. (2019) find that individuals with stronger perceptions of climate change risks are more likely to support mitigation actions and policies. Moreover, direct experience of extreme weather events heightens risk perceptions, prompting adaptive measures (Lujala et al., 2015). Similarly, concerns about water scarcity and disasters are associated with increased engagement in proactive adaptive and protective behaviors (Haden et al., 2012; Wolf et al., 2010). These findings underscore the crucial role of risk perception in the prediction and comprehension of environmental behaviors.

The findings of Study 1 indicate that the Plateau farmers have a clear understanding of the risks posed by climate change. They are aware that climate change could pose significant threats to their livelihoods, including decreased soil fertility and water shortages for crops. This finding aligns with previous research indicating that farmers with a heightened perception of climate change risks are more likely to adopt adaptive measures to mitigate negative impacts (Azadi et al., 2019). Based on this analysis, the following hypothesis is proposed:

H3: The risk perception of climate change among plateau farmers will positively influence their adaptive behaviors.

Self-efficacy as a moderator

Bandura (1991) defines self-efficacy as an individual’s belief in their capability to execute specific actions and influence events. It is a latent predictor of individual attitudes and behaviors. Individuals with higher self-efficacy are more likely to exert greater effort and achieve higher levels of performance (Hongbo Li et al., 2023).

In the field of environmental research, self-efficacy refers to individual’s belief in their capacity to take effective actions to address the negative impacts of climate change (Huang, 2016). Individuals with high self-efficacy are more likely to engage in pro-environmental actions, such as recycling and choosing sustainable alternatives (Tabernero & Hernández, 2010).

In the agricultural context, self-efficacy has emerged as a critical determinant of adaptive behaviors. Farmers with higher self-efficacy are more likely to translate their awareness of climate risks into actionable strategies. Zobeidi et al. (2021) demonstrate that among farmers in Iran’s southern Persian Gulf region, self-efficacy is the most significant predictor of both technical and non-technical adaptive behaviors in response to drought. Tran and Chen (2022) observe among Honduran coffee farmers that self-efficacy significantly and positively moderates the relationship between climate change risk perception and adaptive behaviors.

However, the relationship between self-efficacy and adaptive behaviors is not universally straightforward. van Valkengoed et al. (2023) explore public responses to climate-related disasters and observe that higher levels of perceived self-efficacy and outcome efficacy do not consistently strengthen the relationship between climate change risk perception and adaptive intentions or behaviors. In some cases, individuals with elevated self-efficacy exhibit a weaker association between perceived climate risks and their intention to adopt adaptive measures, though this effect is minimal. This finding suggests that while self-efficacy is generally a facilitator of adaptive action, its influence may vary depending on contextual factors.

According to the findings from Study 1, despite the prolonged occurrences of extreme weather conditions, plateau farmers are able to maintain their crops and livelihoods through the implementation of adaptive measures. In general, the farmers may believe that their adaptive measures effectively address the challenges posed by climate change. In light of the preceding analysis, this study presents the following hypotheses:

H4a: The self-efficacy of plateau farmers moderates the impact of climate change risk perceptions on their adaptive behaviors.

H4b: The self-efficacy of plateau farmers moderates the impact of climate change beliefs on their adaptive behaviors.

Benefits of climate change

Under certain circumstances, climate change may lead to a range of diverse outcomes. Several studies have explored the potential or realized benefits of climate change for specific regions, particularly in terms of environmental and agricultural outcomes. For instance, global warming may enable the expansion of vineyards to higher latitudes and altitudes, potentially enhancing wine quality and yield (Arias et al., 2022; Lorenzo et al., 2016). Similarly, although reduced precipitation associated with climate change may hinder plant growth in some areas of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, warming trends have been shown to promote the growth of alpine vegetation in the headwaters of the Yangtze, Yellow, and Mekong rivers (Bai et al., 2020). Furthermore, research suggests that global warming could make it feasible to cultivate winter wheat instead of spring wheat on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, significantly increasing grain yields for local farmers (Song et al., 2019).

Perceived benefits of environmentally sustainable agricultural practices play a critical role in shaping individuals’ attitudes and behaviors, particularly within farming communities (Khan & Mohsin, 2017; Zhang et al., 2019). Farmers who perceive benefits from behaviors are more likely to acknowledge climate risks and proactively adopt adaptive measures (Aliabadi et al., 2020). Figure 1

However, current research often overlooks the influence of contextual factors—such as the tangible benefits of climate change—on farmers’ cognition and attitudes. Preliminary findings from Study 1 indicate that some farmers on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau have already benefited from climate change, experiencing outcomes such as crop diversification and increased income. These farmers, enticed by short-term gains from the ability to cultivate a wider variety of crops, may develop an altered perception of climate change and its associated risks. This shift in perception could, in turn, influence their attitudes and adaptive behaviors. For this reason, the present study seeks to examine the actual benefits of climate change for farmers on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau as a contextual factor, rather than focusing solely on the psychological variable of perceived benefits. Accordingly, this study proposes the following research questions:

RQ1: Does the experience of climate change benefits among plateau farmers moderate the impact of climate change beliefs on their risk perceptions?

RQ2: Does the experience of climate change benefits among plateau farmers moderate the impact of climate change beliefs on their adaptive behaviors?

Based on the literature review and the research questions outlined above, this study proposes the following research framework (as shown in Fig. 2).

Fig. 2
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Research framework for understanding farmers’ adaptive behaviors on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Survey research design

Study subjects and sampling

The survey was conducted between March and April 2024 in Xining City and Haidong City, targeting farmers in rural areas and farmer rest stops. A convenience sampling method was employed to distribute paper questionnaires at 12 gathering places for farmers, including Xibao Village in Huangzhong County, Datong County in Xining City, Madong Village in Huzhu County, Ledu County in Haidong City, and farmers’ rest stations in Chengzhong District and Huangzhong County of Xining City. This sampling approach was selected due to its practicality in accessing a diverse group of farmers within the study’s time and resource constraints.

Of the 600 questionnaires distributed, 260 were administered face-to-face, with trained researchers guiding groups of four to five farmers through the completion process. The average completion time for these questionnaires ranged from 8 to 12 minutes, depending on participants’ literacy levels and familiarity with the survey format. The remaining 340 questionnaires were distributed by selected farmers to their neighbors and friends, who were also instructed on how to complete them. The completion time for these self-administered questionnaires could not be precisely recorded due to the decentralized distribution process. After excluding invalid responses, 476 valid questionnaires were obtained, accounting for 79.3% of the total distributed questionnaires.

Measurement

The variables include change beliefs, self-efficacy, risk perception of climate change, perceived benefits of climate change, and adaptive behaviors. The measurement of these variables integrates the existing scales with the results of Study 1 to provide a more comprehensive examination of farmers’ attitudes and behaviors towards climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (Arbuckle et al., 2013; Azadi et al., 2019; Huang, 2016; Kellstedt et al., 2008).

Before internal consistency assessment, the data’s suitability for exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was verified using the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) measure of sampling adequacy and Bartlett’s test of sphericity for each construct. As detailed in Tables 3 and 4, all constructs satisfied the requisite criteria: The KMO values for all scales were well above the recommended threshold of 0.70. Bartlett’s test of sphericity was significant (p < 0.001) for all measures, confirming the appropriateness of the data for factor analysis. Reliability was further substantiated by Cronbach’s alpha coefficients, all exceeding the stringent threshold of 0.80, indicating strong internal consistency reliability for each scale. Variables such as gender, age, education, and region were included in the analysis to examine how demographic characteristics influence farmers’ attitudes and behaviors towards climate change (see Table 5).

Table 3 Results of KMO, Bartlett’s test, and reliability analysis.
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Table 4 Climate change attitudes and behaviors scale.
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Table 5 Sample characteristics.
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Results from the survey

Sample description

The sample consists of 476 farmers aged between 18 and 60 years, including 53.6% female and 46.4% male. Their educational levels are as follows: 55.5% have primary school education or less, 30% have junior high school education, 11.6% have high school or vocational education, and 2.9% have a university degree or higher. Their cultivated lands are spread across eight cities or regions (as shown in Table 5).

Table 6 shows that supplementing family income with off-farm work is the most common adaptation measure adopted by farmers on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, with 88.6% of the farmers choosing this method. Other common adaptation measures include adjusting planting dates according to weather conditions (88%), using plastic greenhouses or mulch (87.2%), optimizing planting structures (85.7%), engaging in livestock farming (76%), and purchasing agricultural insurance (79.2%). It suggests that farmers on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are aware of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and have adopted various measures to mitigate these negative effects.

Table 6 The adaptive behavior index for plateau farmers (M = 24.919, SD = 4.615).
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4.3.2 Hypothesis testing

This study employed the PROCESS macro (Model 29) in SPSS (Version 26.0) to test the hypothesized relationships among variables. Bootstrap methods were applied to rigorously assess the effects of climate change beliefs, risk perception, and other factors on adaptive behaviors. The findings indicate that the climate change beliefs of plateau farmers have a significant positive effect on their risk perceptions (b = 0.328, 95% CI= [0.243, 413], p < 0.001, see Table 7), supporting H1. This means that the stronger the farmers’ belief in climate change, the higher their perception of climate change risks, such as reduced crop yields and increased extreme weather events.

Table 7 The Relationship Between Beliefs, Risk Perception, and Adaptive Behaviors.
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The farmers’ beliefs about climate change also have a significant positive effect on their adaptive behaviors (b = 0.750, 95% CI= [0.644, 856], p < 0.001, see Table 7), supporting H2. This suggests that the stronger the farmers’ belief in climate change, the more likely they are to engage in adaptive actions such as adjusting planting times and optimizing planting structures.

Farmers’ risk perception of farmers regarding climate change has a significant positive effect on their adaptive behaviors (b = 0.269, 95% CI= [0.150, 388], p < 0.001), supporting H3. This indicates that when farmers perceive risks and threats from climate change, they are more likely to take adaptive measures to reduce risks and protect their interests. Fig. 3

Fig. 3
Fig. 3
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Model of factors influencing adaptive behaviors of farmers.

Farmers’ self-efficacy significantly negatively moderates the effect of risk perception on adaptive behaviors (b = −0.041, 95% CI = [−0.077, −0.005], p < 0.01), and positively moderates the effect of beliefs on adaptive behaviors (b = 0.069, 95% CI = [0.019, 119], p < 0.01), supporting H4a and H4b. Specifically, when farmers have high self-efficacy, the positive impact of risk perceptions on adaptive behavior is weakened (see Fig.4), while the positive impact of beliefs on adaptive behaviors is strengthened. This suggests that whether plateau farmers engage in adaptive behaviors depends not only on their beliefs and risk perceptions of climate change but also on their assessment of their own coping abilities.

Fig. 4
Fig. 4
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Moderating role of self-Efficacy on the relationship between risk perception and adaptive behaviors.

Regarding research questions RQ1 and RQ2, data analysis shows that the benefits that plateau farmers derive from climate change significantly moderate the relationship between their climate change beliefs and their risk perceptions, as well as their adaptive behaviors. The moderating effect on the relationship between climate change beliefs and risk perception is statistically significant (b = −0.024, 95% CI = [−0.036, −0.012], p <001), indicating a negative moderation. Similarly, the effect on adaptive behaviors was negatively moderated (b = −0.062, 95% CI = [−0.091, −0.033], p < 001). This implies that as plateau farmers gain more benefits from climate change (e.g., increased crop yields), the positive impact of climate change beliefs on risk perception and adaptive behaviors is weakened (see Figs. 5 and 6).

Fig. 5
Fig. 5
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Moderating role of climate change benefits on the relationship between risk perception and adaptive behaviors.

Fig. 6
Fig. 6
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Moderating role of climate change benefits and self-efficacy on the relationship between beliefs and adaptive behaviors.

In terms of direct pathways, the perceived benefits of climate change and self-efficacy significantly modulate the impact of beliefs on adaptive behavior. When benefits are at a lower level (−1 SD) and self-efficacy is at a higher level (+1 SD), the positive effect of beliefs on adaptive behavior is the strongest (b = 1.101, 95% CI [0.885, 1.317], p < 001). Conversely, when benefits are at a higher level (+1 SD) and self-efficacy is at a lower level (-1 SD), the positive impact of beliefs on adaptive behavior is the weakest (b = 400, 95% CI [0.181, 0.620], p < 01, see Fig.6). Further simple slope analysis shows that for each unit increase in climate change benefits, the impact of beliefs on adaptive behavior decreases by 0.062 units (b = −0.062, 95% CI [−0.091, −0.033], p < 001), whereas for each unit increase in self-efficacy, the impact of beliefs on adaptive behavior increases by 0.069 units (b = 069, 95% CI [0.019, 0.119], p < 01).

In terms of indirect pathways, when both the perceived benefits of climate change and self-efficacy are at lower levels (−1 SD), the indirect impact of beliefs on adaptive behavior through risk perception is the strongest (b = 151, 95% CI [0.042, 0.223], p < 001). When both moderating variables are at higher levels (+1 SD), the indirect effect of beliefs is the weakest (b = 043, 95% CI [0.001, 0.096], p < 01). Moreover, an increase in benefits weakens the indirect effect of beliefs on adaptive behavior through risk perception (b = −0.024, 95% CI [−0.036, −0.012], p < 001). Similarly, an increase in self-efficacy also weakens the effect of risk perception on adaptive behavior (b = −0.041, 95% CI [−0.077, −0.005], p < 01).

Discussions

Interpretations of key findings

The survey findings indicate that plateau farmers’ beliefs about climate change not only directly positively influence their adaptive behaviors but also exert an indirect effect through the mediation of risk perceptions. This study further identifies the internal mechanisms through which plateau farmers’ climate change beliefs affect adaptive behaviors via risk perceptions, highlighting the mediating role of risk perceptions in the adaptation process of the plateau farmers. This mediation suggests that farmers initially interpret climate change through their beliefs, which subsequently amplify their risk awareness and ultimately motivate adaptive actions.

More importantly, the study, which emphasizes the actual benefits of climate change rather than on the perceived benefits highlighted in previous research, demonstrates that farmers’ experienced benefits from climate change play a critical moderating role in the relationships among their beliefs, risk perception, and adaptive behavior. This further elaborates on earlier studies of Plateau farmers (Arbuckle et al., 2013; Azadi et al., 2019; Cano & Castro Campos, 2024). Specifically, it negatively moderates the impact of farmers’ climate change beliefs on both risk perceptions and adaptive behaviors. When farmers gain lower benefits from climate change, the positive effect of their climate change beliefs on risk perception and adaptive behaviors is stronger; however, this positive effect weakens as experienced benefits are higher. This moderating dynamic reveals a nuanced causal mechanism: farmers with limited benefits remain highly attentive to climate risks, driving them to adopt protective measures. Conversely, those experiencing substantial benefits may become complacent, thereby reducing their sensitivity to potential threats.

This study extends the understanding of self-efficacy’s role in Plateau farmers’ adaptive behaviors by demonstrating its negative moderating influence on the relationship between risk perceptions and behaviors, as well as its positive moderating influence on the relationship between beliefs and behaviors (Tran & Chen, 2022; van Valkengoed et al., 2023). As revealed by the research findings, those farmers who are confident in their adaptive capabilities, compared to those who lack confidence, are more resilient in face of climate challenges and more likely to adopt various adaptive measures. While farmers’ confidence is important, excessive confidence in their self-efficacy may lead to risk insensitivity, resulting in their misjudgments about appropriate actions. The negative influence of self-efficacy arises because Plateau farmers, with decades of experience working in highland conditions, are very familiar with local climate risks. Farmers with high self-efficacy tend to rely heavily on their experience, believing that minimal measures are sufficient to address climate change risks. In contrast, farmers with low self-efficacy are more cautious, fearing that climate change could harm crop growth and disrupt their livelihoods. As a result, they are more likely to take precautionary steps, such as purchasing agricultural insurance or seeking off-farm work, to mitigate losses from extreme weather.

Notably, this study finds that demographic variables did not significantly affect the adaptive behaviors of plateau farmers. This may be attributed to the distinctive geographical and cultural context of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Specifically, plateau farmers have faced challenges from extreme weather conditions, and their adaptive behavior is likely to be influenced by family and community units, as well as governmental policies, rather than individual decisions (Azad et al., 2022).

Practical implications

These findings offer actionable insights for policymakers and practitioners engaged in supporting farmers on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. First, the moderating effect of experienced benefits highlights a potential pitfall: short-term gains from climate change may lull farmers into a false sense of security. To counter this, educational campaigns should emphasize both the opportunities and risks of climate change, ensuring farmers remain vigilant even during prosperous periods.

Second, the dual role of self-efficacy suggests that interventions should aim to boost farmers’ confidence in their adaptive capacity while guarding against overconfidence. Training programs could focus on practical skills—such as sustainable farming techniques—while incorporating risk assessment exercises to maintain a balanced perspective.

Third, policies should leverage the plateau’s collective culture by engaging family units and local leaders in adaptation planning. Government support, such as subsidies for climate-resilient technologies or region-specific forecasting, could further align with these communal dynamics, fostering widespread resilience.

Conclusion

This study employs a mixed-methods approach, including in-depth interviews and questionnaires, to explore and validate an adaptive behavior model for farmers on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The in-depth interviews conducted in Study 1 identified Plateau farmers’ attitudes towards climate change and their adaptive behaviors, laying the groundwork for subsequent survey research. The questionnaire survey in Study 2 validates the significant impacts of beliefs and risk perceptions on the adaptive behaviors of the farmers, as well as the moderating role of self-efficacy and the experienced benefits of climate change, thereby constructing a theoretical model that explains their adaptive behaviors.

The theoretical and methodological contributions are fourfold. First, the study supports the applicability of variables such as climate change beliefs and risk perceptions in explaining farmers’ adaptive behaviors and extends previous models to unique geographical settings. Second, the study introduces the concept of experienced benefits of climate change into the explanatory framework and provides new insights for a better understanding of the adaptive behaviors or those whose production practices and livelihoods are directly influenced by the cumulative changes in climate. Third, the findings regarding the specific moderating roles of experienced benefits and self-efficacy in the relationships among climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptive behaviors reveal part of the psychological and behavioral mechanisms underlying farmers’ adaptive actions. Fourth, this study introduces in-depth interviews into a mixed-method design aimed at exploring the unique farming experiences of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which differs from previous studies that rely heavily on survey designs based on established yet inflexible theoretical frameworks.

The study identifies the complexity yet predictability of plateau farmers’ responses to climate change. For policymakers and other stakeholders who aim to encourage farmers’ proactive risk management behaviors, a viable strategy is to implement environmental communication and education projects to enhance farmers’ awareness of the risks associated with climate change while also emphasizing the real benefits they gain amidst these challenges. It is important for both individual farmers and local governments seeking economic development to recognize that the short-term benefits gained now will not mitigate the long-term climate and ecological risks faced by humans. Additionally, policymakers should monitor the self-efficacy or confidence levels of farmers when adapting to climate-adjusted farming activities. The practical implications for this study may be applicable to other regions with similar geographical contexts and farming experiences.

This study acknowledges several limitations and suggests directions for future research. First, the interview design may have been influenced by the currently established explanatory frameworks, potentially constraining a comprehensive exploration of the unique experiences of plateau farmers. Future research could incorporate more open-ended questions to allow participants to express their concrete and diverse perceptions and experience related to climate change. Second, the survey did not utilize a frequency scale to measure the adaptive behaviors, which may not accurately reflect the diverse levels of farmers’ adaptive actions. Future studies could optimize the design of adaptive behavior scale to measure farmers’ adaptive actions more effectively. Third, the farming activities of China’s farmers are deeply influenced by traditional farming wisdom, generational experiences, fatalism, and government policies that balance economic development with environmental protection. Future research could explore these aspects to enhance the behavioral explanatory framework for China’s highland farmers.