Abstract
Targeted improvement pathways for crop production are needed to meet growing food demand, but quantitative benchmarks are still lacking in China. Here we establish nitrogen (N) management benchmarks for wheat production at regional-to-country scales using a modified approach outlined by the EU Nitrogen Expert Panel, defined as meeting both the requirements for targeted crop N output and the threshold for N surplus. A large-scale survey of farmers shows that only 20% of China’s wheat harvested area met N management benchmarks. Optimized N management, soil fertility and climatic factors account for 70% of the effect on N management benchmarks; the combination of these contributors is projected to increase China’s wheat harvested area that meets N management benchmarks to 75% by 2030. With this, wheat production would increase by 12%, sufficient to achieve wheat self-sufficiency without imports. We demonstrate how N management benchmarks can be achieved under future climate change scenarios.
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Data availability
All data supporting the findings of this study are available in the article and its Supplementary Information. The historical wheat yield and GDP per capita are available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (https://data.stats.gov.cn/), and the share of agriculture in GDP is available from the World Bank (https://databank.worldbank.org/). Maps were obtained from the Resource and Environment Data platform (https://www.resdc.cn/DOI/DOI.aspx?DOIID=122). Source data are provided with this paper.
Code availability
The code to replicate the key findings of the paper is available via GitHub at https://github.com/tian123-min/NF24081647.
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Acknowledgements
We acknowledge all those who provided farmer survey data and on-farm testing trial data as a part of the national campaign. This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Project of China (grant no. 2023YFD1900400, Z.W. and G.H.), the Shaanxi Province Key R&D Program of China (grant no. 2024NC2-GJHX-28, G.H.), the China Agricultural Research System (grant no. CARS–3–1–31, Z.W.) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 31902120, G.H.).
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G.H., Z.W. and Z.C. designed the study. G.H. and X.M. collected and analysed the data. Z.W. and M.S. preformed the farmer surveys. Z.W., Z.C., W.Q., J.L., Q.Z. and Y.Y. preformed the field experiments. X.M. and G.H. wrote the paper. G.H., Z.W. and Z.C. reviewed the paper.
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Nature Food thanks Arvind Kumar and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
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Extended data
Extended Data Fig. 1 Flowchart for determining wheat production zone based on N management benchmarks at national and regional scales.
The boundaries for determining crop N output is 150 kg N ha−1 season−1, and N surplus is between 5.96e0.0061×N input and 80 kg N ha−1 season−1 in China. In the spring wheat area of North China, the winter wheat area of North China, the winter wheat area of North China Plain, the winter wheat area of South China, the boundaries for determining crop N output is 115, 115, 175, and 130 kg N ha−1 season−1, and N surplus is between 6.39e0.0059×N input and 85 kg N ha−1 season−1, 6.39e0.0059×N input and 80 kg N ha−1 season−1, 8.60e0.0049×N input and 80 kg N ha−1 season−1, and 4.66e0.0065×N input and 85 kg N ha−1 season−1, respectively.
Extended Data Fig. 2 Schematic diagram of the regional N management benchmarks for wheat production in China’s four main regions.
N management benchmarks for wheat in the spring wheat area of North China (SNC, a), winter wheat area of North China (WNC, b), winter wheat area of North China Plain (WNCP, c), and winter wheat area of South China (WSC, d). The targeted crop N output and the upper limits of the N surplus were 115 kg N ha−1 season−1 and 85 kg N ha−1 season−1 in SNC; 115 kg N ha−1 season−1 and 80 kg N ha−1 season−1 in WNC; 175 kg N ha−1 season−1 and 80 kg N ha−1 season−1 in WNCP; 130 kg N ha−1 season−1 and 85 kg N ha−1 season−1 in WSC, respectively. The lower limit of N surplus is a non-fixed constant numerically equal to the unavoidable Nr losses, that is, 6.39e0.0059×N input, 6.39e0.0059×N input, 8.60e0.0049×N input, and 4.66e0.0065×N input in SNC, WNC, WNCP, and WSC, and the corresponding N surplus is 14, 14, 23, and 12 kg N ha−1 season−1, respectively.
Extended Data Fig. 3 Causal effects of explanatory variables on grain yield and N surplus.
The solid lines represent mean partial dependence of predicted grain yield (a–c) and predicted N surplus (d–f) on N fertilizer application rate, SOC, and MAT, and the shaded bands represent 95% confidence intervals. P value was obtained from a one-sided permutation test. SOC: soil organic carbon concentration; MAT: mean annual temperature.
Extended Data Fig. 4 Performance of Fertilizer Recommendation based on soil Nutrient Monitoring (FRNM) technique and integrated soil-crop system management (ISSM) technique.
Comparison of wheat grain yield and N surplus between farmer’s practice and FRNM technique (a–b; n = 246), and between farmer’s practice and ISSM technique (c–d; n = 65). “n” indicates the number of site-year field trials on applying FRNM and ISSM techniques. Solid and dashed lines indicate the median and mean, respectively. The box boundaries indicate the 75% and 25% quartiles, and the whisker caps indicate the 95th and 5th percentiles. P values were obtained from two-sided paired t-test, and no adjustments were made for multiple comparisons.
Extended Data Fig. 5 Predicted changes for wheat production and N surplus under three scenarios.
Changes in wheat production and N surplus between scenario 1 and BAU (a, b), between scenario 2 and BAU (c, d), and between scenario 3 and BAU (e, f) in China’s four main wheat production regions (spring wheat area in North China, winter wheat area in North China, winter wheat area in North China Plain, and winter wheat area in South China). Maps from Resource and Environmental Science Data (https://www.resdc.cn/DOI/DOI.aspx?DOIID=122).
Extended Data Fig. 6 The linear model describing the relationship between wheat grain yield and plant N uptake in China’s four main wheat production regions.
The spring wheat area of North China (a; SNC; n = 140), winter wheat area of North China (b; WNC; n = 547), winter wheat area of North China Plain (c; WNCP; n = 1165), and winter wheat area of South China (d; WSC; n = 929). P values were obtained from a one-sided F-test for the fitting lines, and no adjustments were made for multiple comparisons.
Extended Data Fig. 7 The empirical model describing the relationship between total N input and Nr losses.
The exponential model described the relationship between total N input and N2O emission for the nation (a; n = 689), North China (b; n = 63), North China Plain (c; n = 337), and South China (d; n = 289). The exponential model described the relationship between total N input and NH3 volatilization for the nation (e; n = 454), North China (f; n = 57), North China Plain (g; n = 285), and South China (h; n = 112). The exponential model described the relationship between total N input and \({{\rm{NO}}}_{3}^{-}\) leaching for the nation (i; n = 287), North China (j; n = 48) for North China Plain (k; n = 127), and South China (l; n = 112). Shaded bands represent 95% confidence intervals, and P values were obtained from a one-sided F-test for the fitting lines. No adjustments were made for multiple comparisons.
Extended Data Fig. 8 Geographic location of surveyed data covered 502 counties in China.
Map from Resource and Environmental Science Data (https://www.resdc.cn/DOI/DOI.aspx?DOIID=122).
Supplementary information
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Data from the CM&WP dataset, the farmer survey dataset and the field experiment dataset.
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Mi, X., He, G., Qiu, W. et al. Data-driven nitrogen management benchmarks support China’s wheat self-sufficiency by 2030. Nat Food 6, 692–702 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01197-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01197-w
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