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Projections of healthy working life expectancy in England to the year 2035

Nature Aging volume 2, pages 13–18 (2022)Cite this article

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Abstract

UK state pension age is rising in response to life expectancy gains but population health and job opportunities may not be sufficient to achieve extended working lives1,2,3. This study aimed to estimate future trends in healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) from age 50 to 75 for men and women in England. Using the ‘intercensal’ health expectancy approach, annual period HWLE from 1996 to 2014 was estimated using cross-sectional Health Survey for England data and mortality statistics4,5,6,7. HWLE projections until the year 2035 were estimated from Lee–Carter forecasts of transition rates8. Projections of life expectancy from age 50 showed gains averaging 10.7 weeks (0.21 years) and 6.4 weeks (0.12 years) per calendar year between 2015 and 2035 for men and women respectively. HWLE has been extending in England but gains are projected to slow to an average of 1 week per year for men (0.02 years) and 2.8 weeks (0.05 years) per year for women between 2015 and 2035. Modest projected HWLE gains and the widening gap between HWLE and life expectancy from age 50 suggest that working lives are not extending in line with policy goals. Further research should identify factors that increase healthy working life.

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Fig. 1: Projections of HWLE from age 50 for men.
Fig. 2: Projections of HWLE from age 50 for women.

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Data availability

Data from the HSE is available without restriction to registered researchers from the UK Data Service (https://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-7919-3). HSE data collected in the years 1996–2018 were used in this study. Mortality rates were obtained from the 2018-based past and projected period and cohort life tables published by the UK ONS. All other data are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (grant no. ES/P000665/1 to M.L.). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Medicine, Keele University, Keele, UK

    Marty Lynch, Milica Bucknall & Ross Wilkie

  2. Medical Research Council Versus Arthritis Centre for Musculoskeletal Health and Work, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

    Marty Lynch & Ross Wilkie

  3. Population Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

    Carol Jagger

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Contributions

M.L., M.B., C.J. and R.W. designed the research. M.L. conducted the research, interpreted the findings and wrote the paper under the supervision of M.B., C.J. and R.W.

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Correspondence to Marty Lynch.

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Nature Aging thanks Paola Zaninotto, Ewan MacDonald and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Supplementary Information Supplementary Fig. 1, Tables 1–4 and Note

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43587_2021_161_MOESM3_ESM.xlsx

Supplementary Table 1 HSE sample size with unweighted and weighted proportion of respondents both healthy and working at each year of age 50–75 for the years 1996–2018.

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Lynch, M., Bucknall, M., Jagger, C. et al. Projections of healthy working life expectancy in England to the year 2035. Nat Aging 2, 13–18 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43587-021-00161-0

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