Atmospheric Rossby Wave Dynamics and Climate Extremes

Rossby waves are fundamental components of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation, arising from the conservation of vorticity on a rotating planet. They appear as large-scale undulations in the jet stream that modulate the distribution of temperature and precipitation across continental regions. Variations in Rossby-wave amplitude, phase and propagation speed can lead to the persistence of particular weather regimes, giving rise to heatwaves, cold spells, floods and droughts. Under a warming climate, changes in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient—driven by phenomena such as Arctic amplification and shifts in tropical convection—have been implicated in enhancing jet-stream waviness and promoting the development of quasi-stationary wave patterns. These alterations can foster quasi-resonant amplification within a midlatitude waveguide, prolonging extreme events and synchronising anomalies across vast distances through hemispheric teleconnections. Simultaneously, land–atmosphere feedbacks, including memory effects from snow cover and soil moisture, modulate Rossby-wave sources and influence the emergence of compound extremes. A concerted view of these processes highlights the intricate interplay between high-latitude, tropical and terrestrial forcings in shaping the evolving character of Rossby-wave dynamics. Improved understanding of these interactions is essential for refining seasonal forecasts and assessing future risks to communities and ecosystems.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent work has shown that suppressed tropical Pacific convection can induce a Rossby-wave train within the summer jet waveguide, driving enhanced jet-stream waviness and an increased likelihood of persistent temperature anomalies. Investigations of Arctic amplification have demonstrated that accelerated high-latitude warming weakens the midlatitude thermal gradient, fostering amplified quasi-stationary waves and more stubborn heat and drought events. Large-ensemble model analyses have further revealed that internal atmosphere–land interactions, sensitive to spring snow cover and soil moisture anomalies, amplify quasi-stationary Rossby waves and intensify summer temperature trends over Eurasia.

Atmospheric Rossby Wave Dynamics and Climate Extremes publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in atmospheric rossby wave dynamics and climate extremes across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Rossby wave: large-scale planetary waves in the midlatitude atmosphere that arise from the conservation of potential vorticity and govern the meandering of the jet stream.

Jet stream waviness: the degree of north–south meandering in high-altitude westerly winds, which influences the persistence and extremity of surface weather.

Waveguide: a region of strong zonal wind, often within the jet stream, that traps and directs Rossby waves around the hemisphere.

Quasi-resonant amplification: a process by which specific Rossby-wave wavelengths become trapped in a midlatitude waveguide and grow in amplitude, leading to prolonged weather extremes.

Stationary wave: a Rossby-wave pattern with minimal phase propagation, associated with persistent circulation regimes and extreme events.

References

1. Persistent Extratropical Regimes and Climate Extremes. Current Climate Change Reports (2015).
2. Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events. Scientific Reports (2017).
3. The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation. Nature Communications (2018).
4. Enhanced jet stream waviness induced by suppressed tropical Pacific convection during boreal summer. Nature Communications (2022).
5. Intensification of hot Eurasian summers by climate change and land–atmosphere interactions. Scientific Reports (2019).
6. Warming-induced hydrothermal anomaly over the Earth’s three Poles amplifies concurrent extremes in 2022. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2024).
7. Impact of summer Tibetan Plateau snow cover on the variability of concurrent compound heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere. Environmental Research Letters (2023).
8. Extreme weather events in early summer 2018 connected by a recurrent hemispheric wave-7 pattern. Environmental Research Letters (2019).