Biogeochemical Modeling of Marine Ecosystems

Marine biogeochemical modelling combines physical, chemical and biological processes to simulate the flow of nutrients, carbon and energy through ocean ecosystems. Such models represent the interactions among phytoplankton, zooplankton, bacteria and dissolved and particulate matter, capturing primary production, trophic transfers and the export of organic carbon to depth. By coupling ecosystem components with ocean circulation and physicochemical drivers, these tools quantify how environmental forcing - such as temperature, light availability and nutrient supply - shapes community structure and biogeochemical cycles on regional to global scales. Advances in process representation, from functional-type approaches to trait-based and size-structured formulations, have improved model realism, while integration with satellite observations and in situ time-series has enhanced calibration and validation. Biogeochemical models underpin projections of carbon sequestration and ocean productivity under climate change, inform ecosystem-based management and support assessments of feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere. Despite rapid progress, challenges remain in parameterising grazing dynamics, resolving microbial pathways and integrating novel survey technologies. Overall, biogeochemical modelling of marine ecosystems provides a vital synthetic framework to interpret observations, predict future change and guide policy on marine resources and carbon cycles.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have highlighted the pivotal role of zooplankton in driving carbon cycling and ecosystem efficiency. A multi-model intercomparison of current climate projections revealed that uncertainty in zooplankton grazing rates dominates predictions of secondary production and carbon export, even when net primary production is constrained. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate that small adjustments to grazing parameters can alter global export estimates by several petagrams of carbon per year. In parallel, advances in trait-based modelling have elucidated how shifts towards gelatinous filter feeders alter trophic transfer efficiency, with bloom events amplifying energy flux to larger predators without major changes in primary production. Finally, integrative observations and models of zooplankton phenology and range shifts under warming scenarios emphasise the need for enhanced sampling designs; combining traditional nets with novel imaging and molecular tools improves representation of community dynamics and informs projections of the biological carbon pump under future climate regimes.

Biogeochemical Modeling of Marine Ecosystems publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in biogeochemical modeling of marine ecosystems across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Biogeochemical model: A numerical representation of coupled physical, chemical and biological processes in marine ecosystems.

Biological carbon pump: The transfer of organic carbon from surface waters to the deep ocean via sinking particles and faecal pellets.

Functional type: A grouping of organisms in models according to ecological traits rather than taxonomic identity.

Export production: The fraction of surface-produced organic matter that sinks below the euphotic zone.

Earth system model: An integrated simulation framework combining atmosphere, ocean, land and biogeochemistry to project Earth’s climate and cycles.

References

1. Zooplankton grazing is the largest source of uncertainty for marine carbon cycling in CMIP6 models. Communications Earth & Environment (2023).
2. Gelatinous filter feeders increase ecosystem efficiency. Communications Biology (2024).
3. Monitoring and modelling marine zooplankton in a changing climate. Nature Communications (2023).
4. Ocean Biology Studied from Space. Surveys in Geophysics (2023).
5. ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the lower trophic levels. Geoscientific Model Development (2016).
6. Ocean Biogeochemistry in GFDL's Earth System Model 4.1 and Its Response to Increasing Atmospheric CO2. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (2020).