Burden of Disease and Mortality Trends

The burden of disease and mortality trends represents a systematic assessment of health loss across populations over time, integrating both fatal and non-fatal outcomes. Core metrics include years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and the composite disability-adjusted life-year (DALY), which together capture premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of illness. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) complements these by estimating years expected to be lived in good health. Over recent decades, a global epidemiological transition has unfolded: communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional diseases have declined in many regions, while non-communicable diseases—such as cardiovascular disease, cancer and diabetes—have become predominant. Population growth and ageing amplify total health loss even as age-standardised rates often fall. The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily reversed declines in age-standardised DALY rates, underscoring the fragility of past gains. Considerable geographic and socioeconomic disparities persist, with low-income regions shouldering a disproportionate share of preventable morbidity and mortality. Methodological advances in data synthesis, demographic modelling and uncertainty quantification enable more timely and granular estimates. These insights inform evidence-based policy, priority setting and resource allocation, guiding global and national health strategies to reduce inequities and optimise population health.

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Burden of Disease and Mortality Trends publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in burden of disease and mortality trends across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Disability-adjusted life-year (DALY): A composite measure summing years of life lost and years lived with disability to quantify overall health loss.

Years of life lost (YLL): The number of years lost due to premature death, calculated against a standard life expectancy.

Years lived with disability (YLD): The years of healthy life lost due to living with a health condition, weighted by severity.

Healthy life expectancy (HALE): The average number of years a person can expect to live in good health, accounting for morbidity.

Epidemiological transition: The shift in disease patterns from infectious to chronic non-communicable diseases accompanying development and demographic change.

References

1. Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet (2024).
2. Global burden associated with 85 pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet Infectious Diseases (2024).
3. Projections of future life expectancy in China up to 2035: a modelling study. The Lancet Public Health (2023).