Cancer Incidence and Mortality Trends Analysis

Cancer incidence and mortality trends analysis encompasses the systematic examination of patterns in new cancer cases and deaths over time and across populations. By integrating data from population‐based cancer registries, demographic statistics and risk‐factor surveillance, researchers deploy statistical techniques—such as joinpoint regression, age–period–cohort modelling and predictive algorithms—to quantify shifts in burden, identify emerging hotspots and project future trajectories. These analyses reveal the influence of population ageing, urbanisation, changes in lifestyle and advances in screening and treatment on cancer dynamics. Global comparisons underscore stark disparities: high‐income regions often show stabilising or declining mortality amid rising incidence, whereas low‐ and middle‐income countries may experience growing incidence coupled with persistent mortality due to limited access to early detection and care. Trend studies inform policy by pinpointing cancers with the greatest public health impact, guiding resource allocation for prevention, screening programmes and therapeutic capacity, and measuring the effectiveness of control strategies over time.

Research from Nature Portfolio

No recent Nature Portfolio content available.

Cancer Incidence and Mortality Trends Analysis publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in cancer incidence and mortality trends analysis across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Age‐standardised incidence rate (ASIR): The number of new cancer cases per 100,000 population, adjusted to a standard age distribution to allow fair comparisons across populations with different age structures.

Age‐standardised death rate (ASDR): The number of cancer deaths per 100,000 population, adjusted to a standard age distribution to facilitate comparisons over time or between regions.

Disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs): A summary measure combining years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability, reflecting total health loss from cancer.

Joinpoint regression: A statistical method that identifies points in time when a trend in incidence or mortality rates changes direction or magnitude, enabling detailed characterisation of temporal patterns.

References

1. The carcinogenicity of opium consumption: a systematic review and meta-analysis. European Journal of Epidemiology (2023).
2. National and subnational burden of female and male breast cancer and risk factors in Iran from 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Breast Cancer Research (2023).
3. Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017. JAMA Oncology (2019).