Climate Change and Conflict Dynamics

Climate change increasingly interacts with social, economic and political processes to shape patterns of conflict around the world. Altered rainfall, rising temperatures and extreme weather events can undermine livelihoods, trigger population movements and intensify competition over food, water and land. These pressures may erode social cohesion and overwhelm governance structures, especially in regions with pre-existing inequalities or weak institutions. At the same time, communities employ diverse coping strategies—from migration and livelihood diversification to local peace-building initiatives—that can either mitigate or exacerbate conflict dynamics. Understanding these complex interactions demands interdisciplinary research on causal pathways, contextual factors and feedback loops between environmental stress and collective violence.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have shown that drought conditions can diminish social cohesion by reducing altruistic behaviour towards perceived out-groups. Using natural experiments among Syrian and Iraqi refugees, researchers matched survey responses to meteorological data and socioeconomic indicators to reveal a significant decline in willingness to assist strangers under prolonged drought. The work emphasises that environmental stressors not only heighten competition over resources but also shift interpersonal trust and cooperation, thereby shaping conflict trajectories in vulnerable regions.

Climate Change and Conflict Dynamics publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in climate change and conflict dynamics across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Threat multiplier: A factor that amplifies existing security risks by intensifying resource competition or societal tensions under climate stress.

Conflict onset: The initial emergence of organised or spontaneous violence within a community or between groups.

Adaptation capacity: The ability of individuals and institutions to adjust to climate hazards, moderate potential damages and cope with consequences.

Resilience: The capacity of social and ecological systems to absorb shocks, maintain function and reorganise after environmental disturbances.

References

1. Drought exposure decreases altruism with salient group identities as key moderator. Nature Climate Change (2023).
2. Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk. Global Environmental Change (2020).
3. The Nexus of Climate Change, Land Use, and Conflicts. Current Climate Change Reports (2019).