Climate Change Impacts on Food Security Systems

Climate change is undermining global food security by altering agroecosystem productivity, disrupting supply chains and exacerbating vulnerabilities throughout the food system. Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns and more frequent extreme events reduce crop yields, degrade soil health and constrain water availability, while ocean warming and acidification threaten fisheries and aquaculture. These biophysical stressors interact with socioeconomic factors – including income inequality, infrastructure deficits and governance challenges – to limit food access and stability, heightening the risk of hunger and malnutrition, especially in low-income and marginalised communities. Meanwhile, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide can modify nutrient concentrations in staple crops, undermining dietary quality. Adaptive responses span targeted crop breeding and climate-resilient water management to diversified livelihoods and social safety nets, yet their deployment is uneven. Meeting future food demands sustainably will require integrated strategies that link mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions with locally appropriate adaptation, strengthen supply-chain resilience and promote equitable access to nutritious food.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have advanced attribution methods revealing the escalating influence of temperature anomalies on food insecurity globally. Panel data regression combining reanalysed climate metrics with experiential food-insecurity indices indicates that each degree of warming corresponds to significantly higher rates of moderate and severe food insecurity, with this impact intensifying over the past decade. Counterfactual analysis suggests that climate change has reversed some of the gains in food access that would otherwise have been realised, particularly affecting vulnerable regions in Africa. These findings underscore the dual necessity for stringent mitigation to curb warming and targeted resilience measures, such as yield-enhancing technologies and social safety nets, to safeguard food security.

Climate Change Impacts on Food Security Systems publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in climate change impacts on food security systems across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Food security: State in which all people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to maintain an active and healthy life.

Temperature anomaly: Departure of observed temperature from a reference average over a specified period.

Counterfactual analysis: Modelling approach used to estimate outcomes under hypothetical conditions in the absence of a given factor, such as climate change.

Climate-smart agriculture: Suite of practices that increase agricultural productivity, enhance adaptation and resilience, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions where possible.

Resilience: Capacity of food systems to anticipate, absorb and recover from climate-related shocks without enduring disruption.

References

1. Intersections of Climate Change with Food Systems, Nutrition, and Health: An Overview and Evidence Map. Advances in Nutrition (2024).
2. Does climate change only affect food availability? What else matters?. Cogent Food & Agriculture (2019).
3. The impact of climate change on food systems, diet quality, nutrition, and health outcomes: A narrative review. Frontiers in Climate (2022).
4. Attributing changes in food insecurity to a changing climate. Scientific Reports (2022).