Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Systems and Dynamics
Summary
Climate change is altering the global water cycle through shifts in temperature, precipitation patterns and extreme weather events. Rising air temperatures accelerate evaporation and change snow accumulation and melt regimes, with profound effects on seasonal river flows and groundwater recharge. Precipitation is becoming more variable, with some regions experiencing more intense storms and flooding, while others face prolonged droughts and reduced base flow. These changes influence water availability for ecosystems, agriculture, energy generation and urban supply. In mountainous and high-latitude regions, warming has led to earlier snowmelt and diminished snowpack, shifting peak flows into spring and reducing summer water resources. In arid and semi-arid zones, higher evaporative demand and altered rainfall timing exacerbate water stress and increase the frequency of low-flow periods. Coastal aquifers are under pressure from both reduced recharge and sea-level rise, accelerating saltwater intrusion. Human activities such as land-use change and water withdrawals further interact with climate-driven dynamics, amplifying uncertainties for water management. Integrated assessments reveal that compound effects—such as simultaneous flood and drought risks—are intensifying and require adaptive strategies that account for the full range of hydrological variability and uncertainty.
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Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Systems and Dynamics publication trend
The graph below shows the total number of articles in climate change impacts on hydrological systems and dynamics across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).
Technical terms
Runoff: The portion of rainfall or snowmelt that flows over land into rivers and streams.
Base flow: The sustained component of river discharge derived from groundwater seepage.
Evapotranspiration: Combined process of water evaporation from soil and transpiration from vegetation.
Land use and land cover (LULC): Classification of human activities and vegetation types on the landscape that influence hydrological responses.
Hydrological model: A computational representation of the water cycle used to simulate precipitation, runoff, infiltration and evapotranspiration.
References
- Impact of land use and land cover change in river flow and hydro-energy generation: The case of Bagmati basin in central Nepal. Energy Nexus (2024).
- Stakeholder-guided, model-based scenarios for a climate- and water-smart electricity transition in Ghana and Burkina Faso. Energy Strategy Reviews (2023).
- Assessing the impacts of 1.5 ∘C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). Geoscientific Model Development (2017).
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