Climate Change Impacts on Urban Rainfall Management
Summary
Climate change is exerting profound effects on the frequency, intensity and seasonality of urban rainfall, placing significant strain on stormwater infrastructure and drainage networks. Rising atmospheric temperatures intensify the hydrological cycle and amplify extreme precipitation events, while altered weather patterns prolong wet seasons and exacerbate flood risk. Urbanisation compounds these pressures by increasing impervious surfaces and reducing natural infiltration, leading to higher runoff volumes and peak flows. Traditional drainage systems, often designed under stationary climate assumptions, are vulnerable to underperformance or failure as rainfall extremes exceed historical design thresholds. In response, the research community is advancing new modelling frameworks, adaptive design guidelines and real-time management strategies to enhance resilience. These include continuous hydrological simulations driven by high-resolution climate projections, dynamic updating of intensity–duration–frequency curves, and nature-based solutions such as green roofs and permeable pavements. By integrating uncertainty analysis, multi-criteria optimisation and stakeholder engagement, practitioners can prioritise cost-effective measures that safeguard urban communities, protect critical infrastructure and ensure environmental sustainability amid a changing climate.
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Climate Change Impacts on Urban Rainfall Management publication trend
The graph below shows the total number of articles in climate change impacts on urban rainfall management across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).
Technical terms
Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curve: A statistical relationship describing the probability of rainfall events of varying intensity and duration over a specified return period.
Design peak flow: The maximum surface runoff rate estimated for a given rainfall event, used to size drainage infrastructure.
Convection-permitting model: A high-resolution climate model that explicitly simulates convective processes, yielding detailed precipitation projections at local scales.
Continuous hydrological simulation: A modelling approach that simulates water movement through an urban catchment over extended periods, capturing seasonal and interannual variability rather than isolated storm events.
References
- Urban water infrastructure: A critical review on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies. Urban Climate (2024).
- A Web-Based Application for Exploring Potential Changes in Design Peak Flow of US Urban Areas Driven by Land Cover Change. Journal of Remote Sensing (2023).
- Modelling urban stormwater management changes using SWMM and convection-permitting climate simulations in cold areas. Journal of Hydrology (2023).
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