Climate-Driven Population Dynamics of Forest Insect Pests
Summary
Forest insect pests are highly sensitive to climatic variables, with temperature and moisture regimes governing life-cycle timing, survival rates and geographical distribution. Warmer winters can enhance overwinter survival of larvae and expand northern limits, while hotter summers may accelerate development but also expose certain life stages to lethal heat thresholds. Shifts in seasonal phenology can desynchronise pests from natural enemies or host defences, fuelling more frequent and severe outbreaks. In parallel, altered precipitation patterns influence host tree stress and susceptibility, creating feedbacks that modulate pest abundance. Modelling frameworks—ranging from correlative climate-envelope projections to mechanistic population models—are increasingly integrated with long-term monitoring to forecast outbreak risk under future scenarios. These insights inform adaptive management strategies such as targeted surveillance, host-species selection in reforestation and biologically based control measures, all of which are essential to mitigate economic losses and preserve forest ecosystem services in a warming world.
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Climate-Driven Population Dynamics of Forest Insect Pests publication trend
The graph below shows the total number of articles in climate-driven population dynamics of forest insect pests across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).
Technical terms
Outbreak dynamics: Patterns and frequency of rapid population increases leading to large-scale defoliation events.
Phenology: Timing of biological events such as egg hatch, larval development or adult emergence in relation to environmental cues.
Climate envelope: The range of climatic conditions within which a species can maintain viable populations.
Mechanistic model: A simulation framework that incorporates biological processes (developmental thresholds, mortality rates) to predict population responses to environmental change.
References
- Warmer and brighter winters than before: Ecological and public health challenges from the expansion of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa). The Science of The Total Environment (2025).
- Defoliator outbreaks track with warming across the Pacific coastal temperate rainforest of North America. Ecography (2024).
- Potential Ecological Distribution of the Beetle Agrilus mali Matsumura (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in China under Three Climate Change Scenarios, with Consequences for Commercial and Wild Apple Forests. Biology (2024).
- Forest Insects and Climate Change. Current Forestry Reports (2018).
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