Climate Information Services for Agricultural Decision-Making

Climate information services (CIS) integrate climate science with agricultural practice to deliver timely, tailored guidance that supports farm-level decision-making. By harnessing seasonal forecasts, weather advisories and agro-climatic models, CIS translate complex data into actionable recommendations on sowing dates, variety selection, irrigation scheduling and input management. This integration of remote sensing, numerical prediction and socio-economic insights enhances resilience to climate variability and extremes. The evolution of CIS has emphasised co-production with users, combining scientific rigour with local knowledge to ensure relevance across diverse agroecosystems—from smallholder rainfed plots to high-value horticultural orchards. Digital dissemination channels such as mobile applications, SMS and interactive platforms have expanded service reach, yet challenges remain in aligning information formats with user capacity, ensuring equitable access for marginalised groups and sustaining institutional collaboration. Recent advances in forecast skill, economic valuation and participatory design underscore the need for investment in data infrastructure, capacity building and multi-stakeholder partnerships to scale the impacts of CIS on global agricultural decision-making.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have demonstrated the practical value of improved climate forecasts in specialist and broadacre farming systems. Advanced seasonal prediction models have been shown to skilfully anticipate chill accumulation in temperate orchards, enabling growers to adjust dormant-period management and safeguard yield and quality in fruit-tree crops. Economic analyses based on extensive producer surveys across multiple provinces in China reveal that regular engagement with meteorological forecasts correlates positively with increased agricultural income; moreover, access to multiple information channels was linked to tangible cost savings and revenue gains at the household level. These findings illustrate how enhanced forecast performance and diversified dissemination pathways can translate into concrete economic benefits and empower data-driven decision-making across varied production contexts.

Climate Information Services for Agricultural Decision-Making publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in climate information services for agricultural decision-making across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Climate information services (CIS): Systems that generate, tailor and disseminate climate-related forecasts and advisory products to guide agricultural decision-making.

Seasonal forecasts: Projections of climate variables such as precipitation and temperature over lead times from one to six months, used to inform planting schedules and resource allocation.

Chill accumulation: The cumulative exposure to low temperatures required by certain temperate crops during dormancy to ensure proper flowering and fruit set.

Co-production: Collaborative processes in which scientists and end users jointly design, test and refine climate information products to enhance usability and relevance.

Decision matrix: A structured framework mapping specific climate forecasts to corresponding agricultural management actions, facilitating targeted service development.

References

1. Seasonal climate forecasts show skill in predicting winter chill for specialty crops in California. Communications Earth & Environment (2024).
2. Targeting smallholder farmers for climate information services adoption in Africa: A systematic literature review. Climate Services (2024).
3. Analysis of the agricultural economic value of a weather forecasting service based on a survey of peasant households in Chinese provinces. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (2024).
4. A global meta-analysis of climate services and decision-making in agriculture. Climate Services (2021).