Climate Variability and Precipitation Patterns in the Tropical Americas
Summary
The Tropical Americas encompass a diverse range of climatic regimes extending from the northern Amazon basin through Central America to the Caribbean and the Intra–Americas Sea. Precipitation patterns in this region are governed by the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the interplay of ocean–atmosphere oscillations such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the modulation of moisture transport by low-level jets including the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) and the Chocó Jet. These dynamic drivers give rise to a bimodal rainfall cycle along the Pacific slopes of Central America, a distinct midsummer drought, unimodal and bimodal seasonal rainfall regimes in the Caribbean islands, and strong interannual to decadal variability in the Amazon basin. Extremes of drought and flood, influenced by basin-scale sea surface temperature anomalies and shifts in moisture sources, have substantial ecological, socioeconomic and infrastructural impacts. Climate projections indicate changes in the timing, intensity and spatial distribution of rainfall, with potential intensification of extreme precipitation under warming scenarios. A comprehensive understanding of these interlinked processes is essential for enhancing seasonal forecasts, informing water-resource management and guiding resilient adaptation strategies across the Tropical Americas.
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Climate Variability and Precipitation Patterns in the Tropical Americas publication trend
The graph below shows the total number of articles in climate variability and precipitation patterns in the tropical americas across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).
Technical terms
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific that modulates global circulation patterns and influences seasonal and interannual rainfall variability in the Tropical Americas.
Sea Surface Temperature (SST): The temperature of the top few metres of the ocean, which affects evaporation rates, atmospheric stability and the distribution of moisture over adjacent land areas.
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ): A near-equatorial band of low pressure formed by the convergence of trade winds from both hemispheres, acting as a principal driver of tropical convective rainfall.
Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ): A strong easterly wind corridor over the Caribbean Sea that channels moisture into Central America and the Antilles, influencing the timing and intensity of rainfall.
Midsummer Drought (MSD): A seasonal reduction in rainfall typically occurring in July along the Pacific coast of Central America, interrupting the main wet season and associated with shifts in atmospheric circulation.
References
- Record-Breaking Rainfall in the Northern Amazon in Spring 2022 Tied to the Pacific and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures. Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research (2024).
- Future Changes in the Contribution of Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean Sea Moisture Source: Impacts on Regional Precipitation Patterns. Earth Systems and Environment (2024).
- Examining the Spatiotemporal Changes in the Annual, Seasonal, and Daily Rainfall Climatology of Puerto Rico. Climate (2023).
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