Climate Variability and Predictability in North America

Climate variability in North America encompasses fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and extreme events from seasonal to decadal scales. These fluctuations arise from a complex interplay of ocean–atmosphere phenomena such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, as well as atmospheric wave patterns and local topography. Teleconnections can channel energy across basins, modulating marine heatwaves in the North Pacific and winter extremes on the continent. Mountain ranges, notably the Intermountain West, can amplify large-scale signals, yielding pronounced elevation-dependent precipitation responses. Advances in seasonal forecasting, including ensemble approaches and machine-learning techniques, have enhanced predictability of hydroclimate extremes, informing water resource management and agricultural planning. Recent work has also underscored the role of extratropical atmospheric pathways in sustaining ‘warm blob’ events and shaping cold‐season conditions over eastern and western regions. Understanding these drivers supports improved early warning systems and adaptation strategies across diverse North American sectors.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have illuminated the mechanisms sustaining prolonged Northeast Pacific marine heatwaves and their wider climate impacts. One analysis reveals that extratropical teleconnections originating from rainfall anomalies over the Mediterranean and North Atlantic can project planetary wave trains that reinforce the atmospheric ridge responsible for Pacific warm blobs, offering new avenues for predicting surface temperature anomalies over North America. Another investigation in the western United States demonstrates that the complex terrain of the Intermountain West significantly amplifies the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on winter precipitation, with high elevations experiencing up to nearly sixfold greater ENSO‐induced variability than lowlands. These findings enhance our understanding of both remote and local factors that shape continental hydroclimate predictability.

Climate Variability and Predictability in North America publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in climate variability and predictability in north america across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Teleconnection: Linkage between climate anomalies in different regions via atmospheric or oceanic pathways.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific affecting global weather patterns.

Marine heatwave: Extended period of unusually high sea surface temperatures.

Orographic amplification: Enhancement of atmospheric signals such as precipitation or wave patterns by mountainous terrain.

Multi‐model ensemble: Aggregation of forecasts from several climate models to improve prediction reliability.

References

1. Northeast Pacific warm blobs sustained via extratropical atmospheric teleconnections. Nature Communications (2024).
2. Orographic amplification of El Niño teleconnections on winter precipitation across the Intermountain West of North America. Nature Water (2023).
3. Winter cold extremes over the eastern North America: Pacific origins of interannual-to-decadal variability. Environmental Research Letters (2023).
4. Why Do DJF 2023/24 Upper‐Level 200‐hPa Geopotential Height Forecasts Look Different From the Expected El Niño Response?. Geophysical Research Letters (2024).