Climate Variability Effects on Marine Fisheries Dynamics

Marine fisheries are intrinsically linked to fluctuations in oceanic and atmospheric systems. Variations in sea surface temperature, wind‐driven upwelling and large‐scale climate modes—such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation—modulate primary productivity, larval survival and species distributions. These physical drivers cascade through food webs, altering recruitment, growth rates and catch composition. Over decadal scales, regime shifts can trigger persistent changes in stock abundance and geographic range, while extreme events induce acute impacts on coastal communities. The interplay of intrinsic species sensitivity and fishing pressure determines the resilience of exploited populations. Improved forecasting and adaptive management rely on integrating climate indices, biological vulnerability assessments and socio-economic factors. This holistic perspective underpins ecosystem-based approaches, guiding quotas, gear restrictions and spatial closures to sustain yields under a changing climate.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have quantified temporal trends in the ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of landed species across different fleets and regions. Analyses of Portuguese fisheries landings reveal that overall sensitivity did not decline from 1989 to 2015, but specific fleet types exhibited divergent trajectories: trawlers saw rising sensitivity, multi-gear fleets mitigated high vulnerability through diversification, and purse-seine operations maintained low vulnerability at the expense of dependence on few species. By combining intrinsic species traits with catch composition, researchers established a regional measure of ecological exposure, demonstrating that diversification strategies can buffer fishing communities against climate‐driven perturbations.

Climate Variability Effects on Marine Fisheries Dynamics publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in climate variability effects on marine fisheries dynamics across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A climate phenomenon characterised by periodic warming and cooling of central and eastern Pacific waters, affecting global weather and marine ecosystems.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): A fluctuation in atmospheric pressure between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low, influencing wind patterns and sea surface conditions in the North Atlantic.

Upwelling: The process by which deep, nutrient-rich water rises to the surface, stimulating primary productivity and supporting fishery yields.

Ecological vulnerability: A measure of the susceptibility of species or communities to harm from environmental change, integrating exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity.

Catch per unit effort (CPUE): A standardised index of fish abundance reflecting the quantity of catch obtained for a given amount of fishing effort.

References

1. Collaborative Forecasting and Analysis of Fish Catch in Hokkaido From Multiple Scales by Using Neural Network and ARIMA Model. IEEE Access (2022).
2. Sardine regime shifts off Portugal: a time series analysis of catches and wind conditions. Scientia Marina (2003).
3. Can small pelagic fish landings be used as predictors of high-frequency oceanographic fluctuations in the 1–2 El Niño region?. Advances in Geosciences (2016).
4. Ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of fishing fleet landings to climate change across regions. Scientific Reports (2022).