Compound Climate Extremes and Their Impacts

Compound climate extremes arise from the co-occurrence or sequence of climatic drivers—such as heatwaves coinciding with droughts, or simultaneous extremes of temperature and precipitation—and often generate impacts that exceed those of individual events. These complex hazards can cascade through water, energy and food systems, straining infrastructure and undermining ecosystem resilience. Their non-linear interactions and geographic clustering exacerbate impacts on vulnerable communities, while global warming is projected to increase their frequency, severity and spatial extent. Advances in combining large-ensemble climate simulations with observational analyses, alongside the integration of socio-economic risk frameworks, are yielding more comprehensive assessments of compound extremes. Such work underpins the development of early-warning systems, targeted adaptation measures and resilience building at local to global scales.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have demonstrated the power of large-ensemble climate models to characterise compound extremes. One analysis employed multiple single-model initial-condition large ensembles to quantify the frequency, uncertainty and attribution of four archetypal compound events, emphasising that very large sample sizes are essential for robust projections. Another investigation identified regional precipitation trends as the primary modulator of future occurrences of co-occurring hot and dry extremes, since warming alone will ensure that droughts coincide with at least moderate heat. A global assessment of multivariate hazard pairs mapped hotspots of compound risks—such as concurrent floods, droughts and fires—in regions including western Europe and North America, providing an observational baseline for evaluating model fidelity and informing regional risk management.

Research from all publishers

A recent perspective on heatwave-drought compound events elucidated the coupled water-heat-carbon processes driving these hazards and outlined their projected intensification in socio-ecosystems. A global assessment using multiple climate models projected significant increases in the frequency, duration and severity of compound drought and heatwaves across diverse regions, highlighting distinct regional responses to warming. A pan-European study of heatwaves, droughts and wildfires demonstrated how antecedent drought conditions amplify subsequent heat and fire risks, underscoring the need for integrated hazard monitoring and coordinated land-atmosphere management.

Compound Climate Extremes and Their Impacts publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in compound climate extremes and their impacts across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Compound event: The simultaneous or sequential co-occurrence of two or more climate drivers or hazards that yield an impact greater than the sum of individual extremes.

Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE): A suite of many simulations from a single climate model, each with varied initial conditions, used to sample internal variability and rare event statistics.

Hazard: A potentially damaging climate phenomenon—such as heatwaves, droughts, floods or storms—considered independently of exposure or vulnerability.

Event attribution: A statistical and physical approach to assess the extent to which anthropogenic climate change has altered the likelihood or intensity of a specific extreme event.

Cascading hazard: A sequence in which the occurrence of one hazard triggers or amplifies subsequent hazards or impacts, leading to compound risk pathways.

References

1. Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations. Nature Communications (2023).
2. Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events. Nature Climate Change (2022).
3. Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events. Nature Communications (2020).
4. Understanding heatwave-drought compound hazards and impacts on socio-ecosystems. The Innovation Geoscience (2023).
5. Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (2023).
6. Heatwaves, droughts, and fires: Exploring compound and cascading dry hazards at the pan-European scale. Environment International (2019).
7. A framework for complex climate change risk assessment. One Earth (2021).