Copula-Based Drought Characterization and Risk Assessment
Summary
Copula-based drought characterisation integrates the probabilistic relationships among multiple drought attributes—most commonly severity and duration—into a unified modelling framework. By separating marginal distributions of individual indices and coupling them via copula functions, researchers can capture the intricate dependence structures that underlie compound drought events. This approach enables the estimation of joint return periods, conditional probabilities and multivariate risk measures, thereby supporting more informed water resources planning, reservoir operation and agricultural management. Copula methods accommodate diverse marginal models, ranging from gamma to generalized extreme value distributions, and a variety of copula families, including Archimedean (Frank, Clayton, Gumbel) and elliptical (Gaussian, Student’s t). Their flexibility underpins scenario analysis, spatial mapping of risk and assessment of climate‐driven changes in drought behaviour across regions.
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Copula-Based Drought Characterization and Risk Assessment publication trend
The graph below shows the total number of articles in copula-based drought characterization and risk assessment across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).
Technical terms
Copula: A statistical function that joins marginal distributions into a multivariate distribution, describing dependence among variables.
Marginal distribution: The probability distribution of an individual variable considered in isolation from others.
Run theory: A method for identifying drought events by analysing consecutive sequences of index values below a threshold.
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI): A normalised index representing precipitation deficits over a specified timescale.
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI): A drought index that accounts for both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.
Drought severity: A measure of the cumulative deficit or intensity of a drought event over its duration.
Drought duration: The continuous time length for which a drought index remains below a defined threshold.
Return period: The average interval at which a drought of a given joint severity and duration is expected to recur.
References
- Meteorological drought analysis using copula theory and drought indicators under climate change scenarios (RCP). Meteorological Applications (2019).
- Copula-Based Stochastic Simulation for Regional Drought Risk Assessment in South Korea. Water (2018).
- Run Theory and Copula-Based Drought Risk Analysis for Songnen Grassland in Northeastern China. Sustainability (2019).
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