Ecological Modeling of Demersal Fish Species in Marine Ecosystems

Ecological modeling of demersal fish species integrates mathematical and computational frameworks to represent the dynamics of bottom‐dwelling communities, their interactions with the physical environment and human activities. These models span individual‐based growth and movement simulations, population dynamics modules for stock assessment, multispecies food‐web representations and spatially explicit habitat suitability analyses. By linking environmental drivers such as temperature, depth and substrate with biological traits—growth rates, reproductive timing and trophic interactions—models can predict distribution shifts, recruitment success and community responses to fishing pressure or habitat alteration. Such tools are indispensable for sustainable fisheries management, marine spatial planning and the design of conservation measures, offering projections under climate change scenarios and supporting ecosystem‐based approaches to maintain biodiversity and fishery yields.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent methodological advances have demonstrated the value of integrated Bayesian spatial models that combine computational efficiency with robust uncertainty quantification. An approach using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation with Stochastic Partial Differential Equations has been shown to capture both well‐known and marginal hotspots of species occurrence, while accommodating complex spatial autocorrelation and environmental covariates. This framework markedly reduces computation time relative to traditional simulation‐based methods and is readily adaptable to demersal fish distributions, improving habitat suitability predictions under varying environmental scenarios.

A holistic framework for age validation in a demersal species has refined the estimation of growth parameters critical for population models. By comparing otolith back‐calculation, marginal increment analyses and length‐frequency distribution methods, researchers have resolved the placement of false growth increments and corroborated age estimates across life stages. This integrative validation enhances confidence in age‐structured models, refining growth curves, mortality rates and recruitment forecasts for red mullet and related demersal taxa.

Ecological Modeling of Demersal Fish Species in Marine Ecosystems publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in ecological modeling of demersal fish species in marine ecosystems across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Ecological modelling: The construction of mathematical or computational representations of biological processes and interactions within ecosystems.

Demersal fish: Species that live and feed on or near the sea floor, often subject to bottom-trawl fisheries.

Spatially explicit model: A modelling approach that incorporates geographic location and spatial heterogeneity of environmental or biological variables.

Bayesian species distribution model: A statistical framework that uses Bayesian inference to relate species occurrence or abundance to environmental covariates, quantifying uncertainty.

Ecological niche modelling: A method to predict the distribution of suitable habitat for a species based on its ecological requirements and environmental variables.

Otolith: A calcareous structure in the inner ear of fish used for balance and hearing; its growth increments provide records of age and growth history.

References

1. Using a Bayesian modelling approach (INLA-SPDE) to predict the occurrence of the Spinetail Devil Ray (Mobular mobular). Scientific Reports (2020).
2. A holistic approach to the age validation of Mullus barbatus L., 1758 in the Southern Adriatic Sea (Central Mediterranean). Scientific Reports (2018).
3. Monthly spatial dynamics of the Bay of Biscay hake-sole-Norway lobster fishery: an ISIS-Fish database. Scientific Data (2022).
4. The Seasonal Distribution of a Highly Commercial Fish Is Related to Ontogenetic Changes in Its Feeding Strategy. Frontiers in Marine Science (2020).
5. Modelling of European hake nurseries in the Mediterranean Sea: An ecological niche approach. Progress In Oceanography (2015).