Economic Factors Influencing Civil Conflict
Summary
Civil conflicts are deeply shaped by economic dynamics that affect both state actors and non-state groups. Competition over valuable resources—such as minerals, oil and agricultural land—creates incentives for rebellion when revenues can be looted or taxed. Commodity price fluctuations and resource windfalls alter the balance of power by funding armed groups or bolstering government coffers, thereby influencing the likelihood, intensity and duration of violence. Economic grievances arising from unemployment, inequality and poverty lower the opportunity cost of joining insurgencies, while sudden cuts to welfare or public spending can trigger unrest among vulnerable populations. Climate-driven shocks to livelihoods, notably among pastoralists and small-scale farmers, disrupt traditional risk-sharing arrangements and spur migration into contested areas. These movements often provoke clashes over grazing and cultivation rights. Conversely, inclusive revenue-sharing mechanisms, political representation for marginalized groups and targeted development interventions can mitigate conflict risk by addressing root economic drivers and improving local governance.
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Economic Factors Influencing Civil Conflict publication trend
The graph below shows the total number of articles in economic factors influencing civil conflict across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).
Technical terms
Resource windfall: Sudden increase in revenue from natural resources due to price spikes or new discoveries.
Opportunity cost: Value of foregone alternatives, here the income or safety civilians give up to join armed groups.
Conflict minerals: Natural resources whose extraction and trade fund armed insurgencies.
Pastoralists: Communities that herd livestock and migrate seasonally, often interacting with sedentary farmers.
References
- Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change, and Conflict in Africa. The Review of Economic Studies (2024).
- More legislation, more violence? The impact of Dodd-Frank in the DRC. PLOS ONE (2018).
- Welfare Cuts and Crime: Evidence from the New Poor Law. The Economic Journal (2022).
- Oil Price Shocks and Conflict Escalation: Onshore versus Offshore. Journal of Conflict Resolution (2021).
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