Epidemiology and Health Economics of Type 2 Diabetes

Type 2 diabetes has emerged as one of the most pressing global health challenges, driven by rising obesity, population ageing and urbanisation. Epidemiological surveillance reveals marked geographic variation in incidence and prevalence, with trends shaped by screening practices, socioeconomic factors and shifts in lifestyle. Incidence rates have plateaued or declined in several high-income regions, yet prevalence continues to grow owing to improved survival and an ageing population. The economic burden is substantial: direct costs include hospitalisations, outpatient care, medications and monitoring, while indirect costs arise from lost productivity, disability and informal caregiving. Health-economic models project escalating demand for long-term care and workforce resources, underscoring the need for cost-effective prevention, early diagnosis programmes and innovations such as remote monitoring and personalised self-management technologies. Integrating epidemiological data with economic analyses is essential to inform resource allocation, shape public-health policy and optimise care pathways for diverse populations.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent work has refined national incidence estimates by accounting for patients who interrupt antihyperglycaemic therapy or glycaemic monitoring for extended periods. An adjusted epidemiological model applied to Austrian health-claims data from 2013 to 2017 showed that crude incidence rates appeared to rise, but that rates actually declined across all age and sex groups once treatment discontinuation (‘erratic’ patients) was considered. About one in three patients fell into this erratic group, which also exhibited higher mortality. These findings highlight the critical interplay between adherence, surveillance definitions and accurate estimation of disease trends, with implications for targeted screening and retention in care.

Epidemiology and Health Economics of Type 2 Diabetes publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in epidemiology and health economics of type 2 diabetes across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Incidence: Number of new cases of a disease occurring in a specified population over a defined period.

Prevalence: Proportion of individuals in a population who have a disease at a given point in time.

Age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR): Incidence rate adjusted to a standard age distribution to enable comparison between populations.

Direct costs: Expenditures related to medical care, including hospitalisations, medications and clinical monitoring.

Indirect costs: Economic losses attributable to reduced productivity, disability, absenteeism and informal caregiving.

Health claims data: Administrative records of healthcare services, prescriptions and billing used for epidemiological and economic analyses.

Erratic group: Subset of patients who discontinue treatment or monitoring for extended periods, affecting incidence and mortality estimates.

References

1. Incidence trend of type 2 diabetes from 2012 to 2021 in Germany: an analysis of health claims data of 11 million statutorily insured people. Diabetologia (2024).
2. Trends in diabetes incidence in Austria 2013–2017. Scientific Reports (2023).
3. Costs and its drivers for diabetes mellitus type 2 patients in France and Germany: a systematic review of economic studies. BMC Health Services Research (2020).
4. Projected number of people in need for long-term care in Germany until 2050. Frontiers in Public Health (2024).