Epidemiology and Risk Factors of Diabetes Mellitus

Diabetes mellitus has become one of the most pervasive chronic diseases worldwide, driven by demographic shifts, urbanisation and the global rise in obesity. Type 2 diabetes constitutes the vast majority of cases and emerges from a complex interplay between genetic predisposition and modifiable lifestyle factors, including excess adiposity, physical inactivity, unhealthy dietary patterns and tobacco use. Type 1 diabetes, although less common, remains a significant contributor to morbidity, especially in younger populations. Epidemiological surveillance reveals pronounced regional variation, with highest age-standardised prevalence in parts of North Africa, the Middle East and Oceania, and accelerating trends in low- and middle-income countries. Socioeconomic gradients shape both incidence and access to diagnosis and care, resulting in persistent underdiagnosis and delayed treatment. Disability-adjusted life-years attributable to diabetes have surged in parallel with case numbers, reflecting not only increased mortality but also the heavy burden of chronic complications such as cardiovascular disease, renal impairment, retinopathy and neuropathy. Forecasts indicate that, without strengthened prevention and early-detection strategies, the global population living with diabetes could exceed one billion by 2050, placing unsustainable pressures on health-care systems and economies.

Research from Nature Portfolio

A foundational global analysis has quantified trends in diabetes burden from 1990 to 2017 and projected outcomes to 2025, revealing a continuous rise in incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years across 195 countries. Age-standardised rates of mortality and morbidity vary substantially by region and socioeconomic context, yet most regions exhibit upward trajectories. Metabolic risk factors, notably high body-mass index, and behavioural factors such as poor diet, tobacco use and physical inactivity account for the largest share of attributable burden. Projections to 2025 underscore the urgency of targeting these risk factors through policy measures and community-based interventions to curb the anticipated growth in diabetes-related health loss.

Epidemiology and Risk Factors of Diabetes Mellitus publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in epidemiology and risk factors of diabetes mellitus across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Incidence: The number of new cases of diabetes occurring in a defined population over a specified period.

Prevalence: The total number of individuals living with diabetes at a particular point in time in a given population.

Disability-adjusted life-year (DALY): A metric combining years of life lost due to premature mortality and years lived with disability, used to assess overall disease burden.

Body-mass index (BMI): A ratio of weight to height squared (kg/m2) used to categorise underweight, normal weight, overweight and obesity.

Prediabetes: A state of elevated blood glucose concentrations below the threshold for a diabetes diagnosis, associated with heightened risk of progression to type 2 diabetes.

References

1. Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet (2023).
2. Global, regional, and national burden and trend of diabetes in 195 countries and territories: an analysis from 1990 to 2025. Scientific Reports (2020).
3. Undiagnosed type 2 diabetes is common – intensified screening of established risk groups is imperative in Sweden: the SDPP cohort. BMC Medicine (2024).