Epidemiology and Risk Factors of Type 2 Diabetes

Type 2 diabetes is a rapidly escalating global health challenge, accounting for the vast majority of diabetes cases worldwide. Prevalence has more than doubled over the past three decades, driven by demographic ageing, urbanisation and the global obesity epidemic. Low- and middle-income regions now bear the heaviest burden, with prevalence frequently exceeding 10 % of adult populations. Key non-modifiable risk factors include age, ethnicity and family history, while modifiable determinants encompass overweight and obesity, physical inactivity, unhealthy diets, dyslipidaemia, hypertension and exposure to environmental pollutants. Socioeconomic disparities exacerbate risk through limited access to healthy foods, recreational spaces and quality healthcare. The disease carries major morbidity and mortality through microvascular and macrovascular complications, contributes substantially to disability-adjusted life years lost and imposes high direct and indirect economic costs. Prevention and control strategies hinge on population-level lifestyle interventions, early screening, optimisation of glycaemic control and policy measures to curb obesity and air pollution.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent national survey data have revealed that one in seven adults has type 2 diabetes and one in four has prediabetes. Despite high rates of diagnosis and statin use approaching international targets, fewer than one third of those with diabetes achieve recommended glycaemic control, and less than half receive regular blood pressure management. Gaps in the care cascade—particularly in treatment coverage and sustained follow-up—underscore the need for integrated chronic-care frameworks.

Prospective registry analysis from tertiary-care clinics has documented that although oral glucose-lowering agents and insulin are widely available, only around 13 % of patients attain adequate hyperglycaemic control. Control of lipid and blood pressure parameters remains suboptimal, and nearly one quarter of patients already exhibit retinopathy, nephropathy or ischaemic heart disease at clinic presentation. These findings highlight persistent shortfalls in early detection, risk factor management and complication prevention.

Epidemiology and Risk Factors of Type 2 Diabetes publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in epidemiology and risk factors of type 2 diabetes across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Prevalence: The proportion of a population living with a condition at a given time.

Incidence: The rate of new cases of a condition in a population over a specified period.

Glycaemic control: The maintenance of blood glucose levels within target ranges to minimise complications.

Prediabetes: A state of elevated blood glucose not meeting diabetes thresholds but associated with high progression risk.

Disability-adjusted life year (DALY): A measure combining years of life lost due to premature mortality and years lived with disability.

References

1. Evaluation of the diabetes care cascade and compliance with WHO global coverage targets in Iran based on STEPS survey 2021. Scientific Reports (2023).
2. Burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its risk factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990–2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. BMC Public Health (2024).
3. An updated systematic review and Meta-analysis of the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Iran, 1996–2023. Frontiers in Public Health (2024).