Epidemiology of Body Mass Index and Obesity Trends
Summary
The epidemiology of body mass index (BMI) and obesity has evolved into a mature field that integrates surveillance, statistical modelling and population health analysis to map the distribution, determinants and consequences of weight change worldwide. BMI, a simple index of weight-for-height, has become the principal marker for defining overweight and obesity categories in adult and paediatric populations. Over recent decades, repeated cross-sectional surveys and longitudinal cohorts have documented a global rise in mean BMI and in the prevalence of overweight and obesity across all age groups, albeit with marked regional, socioeconomic and generational differences. Age–period–cohort approaches reveal that younger birth cohorts experience an earlier onset of excess weight, amplifying lifetime exposure and risk of non-communicable diseases. Analyses of BMI distribution highlight that increases occur disproportionately at the upper tail, indicating widening health inequalities. This body of work underpins public health strategies and policy interventions aimed at reversing obesogenic trends, addressing both undernutrition and overnutrition within a coherent global framework.
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Epidemiology of Body Mass Index and Obesity Trends publication trend
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Technical terms
Body mass index (BMI): A numerical value of weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in metres, used to classify underweight, normal weight, overweight and obesity.
Prevalence: The proportion of a population with a specific condition at a given time.
Age–period–cohort model: A statistical technique that separates effects attributable to age, calendar period and birth cohort on outcomes such as BMI.
Percentile: A measure indicating the value below which a given percentage of observations falls in a distribution, used to describe shifts at different points of the BMI distribution.
Non-communicable diseases (NCDs): Chronic diseases not passed from person to person, including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and certain cancers, often linked to excess adiposity.
References
- Trends in the ability of socioeconomic position to predict individual body mass index: an analysis of repeated cross-sectional data, 1991–2019. BMC Medicine (2023).
- An age‐period‐cohort approach to studying long‐term trends in obesity and overweight in England (1992–2019). Obesity (2023).
- Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight. eLife (2021).
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