Epidemiology of Obesity and Non-Communicable Diseases

Obesity has emerged as a leading global health challenge, characterised by an excessive accumulation of adipose tissue and measured most commonly through the body mass index (BMI). Over the past three decades, prevalence has risen in virtually all regions, with marked disparities between high-income and low- and middle-income countries. Urbanisation, shifts in dietary patterns towards energy-dense foods, sedentary lifestyles and socioeconomic transitions underpin this trend. Central obesity, reflecting visceral fat deposition, is increasingly recognised as a potent predictor of cardiometabolic risk. The epidemiological transition links rising obesity rates to a growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, certain cancers and chronic respiratory conditions. Surveillance data reveal heterogeneous trajectories by age, sex and geography, with forecasts indicating further increases absent effective interventions. Quantifying the health loss through metrics such as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) underscores the pressing need for population-wide prevention, early detection and multifaceted strategies that address dietary quality, physical activity, social determinants and health system readiness.

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Epidemiology of Obesity and Non-Communicable Diseases publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in epidemiology of obesity and non-communicable diseases across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Epidemiology: The study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states in populations.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs): Chronic conditions not passed from person to person, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancers.

Body mass index (BMI): A weight-for-height measure calculated as weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in metres, used to classify underweight, overweight and obesity.

Central obesity: Excess fat accumulation around the abdomen, often assessed by waist circumference, linked to higher metabolic risk.

Disability-adjusted life year (DALY): A composite measure of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability, reflecting overall disease burden.

Socioeconomic status (SES): An individual’s or group’s social and economic position, often measured by income, education and occupation, influencing health outcomes.

References

1. Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet (2025).
2. Updating the association between socioeconomic status and obesity in low‐income and lower‐middle‐income sub‐Saharan African countries: A literature review. Obesity Reviews (2023).
3. The global burden of disease attributable to high body mass index in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study. PLOS Medicine (2020).