Evolutionary Game Theory in Low-Carbon Technology Innovation
Summary
Evolutionary game theory offers a dynamic framework to analyse how multiple stakeholders—governments, firms, consumers and other actors—interact and adjust their strategies over time in the pursuit of low-carbon technology innovation. Unlike classical game theory, which assumes fully rational agents and static equilibria, evolutionary approaches incorporate bounded rationality and adaptation through replicator dynamics. Participants’ strategic choices evolve in response to relative payoffs, modelled via payoff matrices and stability concepts such as evolutionarily stable strategies. This methodology has been applied to assess the impact of policy instruments (carbon taxes, subsidies, regulatory penalties), market incentives and public participation on the diffusion of green technologies. By simulating alternative policy mixes and behavioural responses, evolutionary game models can identify conditions under which cooperative equilibria emerge, enabling radical innovation, accelerating adoption curves and ensuring system‐wide sustainability. Such insights inform the design of coordinated policy portfolios, reveal tipping points for technology uptake and highlight the interplay between economic incentives, technological capability and social norms in transitioning towards a low-carbon economy.
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Technical terms
Evolutionary game theory: A branch of game theory that models strategy change in populations of boundedly rational agents through adaptation and selection.
Replicator dynamics: A system of differential equations describing how the proportion of strategies evolves based on their relative payoffs.
Evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS): A strategy that, when adopted by a population, cannot be invaded by any alternative strategy under dynamics.
Payoff matrix: A representation of rewards or costs for each player under every combination of strategies.
Carbon tax: A levy imposed on greenhouse gas emissions to create economic incentives for emission reduction.
References
- Evolutionary Game and Simulation Analysis of Low-Carbon Technology Innovation With Multi-Agent Participation. IEEE Access (2022).
- Incentives for Green and Low-Carbon Technological Innovation of Enterprises Under Environmental Regulation: From the Perspective of Evolutionary Game. Frontiers in Energy Research (2022).
- Green Innovation Mode under Carbon Tax and Innovation Subsidy: An Evolutionary Game Analysis for Portfolio Policies. Sustainability (2020).
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