Food Security Implications of Geopolitical Conflicts

Geopolitical conflicts disrupt the global circulation of staple commodities, leading to spikes in food prices, reduced export flows and heightened supply-chain volatility. When major agricultural exporters are involved, downstream effects can include immediate shortages of cereals and oilseeds, labour and input constraints and diminished nutritional outcomes among the most vulnerable groups. Knock-on impacts extend beyond availability to include affordability and long-term sustainability, as higher energy and fertiliser costs alter production patterns and may trigger environmentally damaging land-use change. Conflicts also expose underlying structural weaknesses in trade dependencies, infrastructure resilience and social protection systems, amplifying the risk of acute food crises in import-dependent regions. Policymakers and practitioners are thus concerned with preserving food access for low-income populations, diversifying supply sources and reinforcing domestic capacities to absorb shocks, while balancing environmental and climate objectives.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have modelled the medium-term effects of the Russia–Ukraine war on global food affordability and greenhouse-gas emissions. They show that, although global production remains sufficient, elevated food and energy prices disproportionately harm low-income consumers. Simulations suggest that higher fertiliser costs could lead to reduced energy-intensive inputs and some contraction in emissions, even as agricultural area expands elsewhere, posing biodiversity risks.

Other work has explored compensatory trade scenarios for halted wheat and maize exports, quantifying price increases of up to 7% in key commodities. While production relocation can mitigate supply losses, it may substantially raise carbon emissions without fully restoring food security, underscoring trade-off dilemmas between climate goals and nutrition outcomes.

Food Security Implications of Geopolitical Conflicts publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in food security implications of geopolitical conflicts across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Food security: A state in which all people at all times have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

Food affordability: The extent to which individuals or households can purchase adequate diet using a reasonable share of their income without compromising other essential needs.

Agrifood system: An integrated network encompassing production, processing, distribution, consumption and disposal of food, including related inputs, infrastructure and governance arrangements.

Price shock: An abrupt, substantial change in commodity prices driven by sudden supply disruptions or demand fluctuations, often resulting from external events such as conflict.

Resilience: The capacity of food systems, households and communities to anticipate, absorb and recover from shocks while maintaining core functions and structures.

References

1. The Russia-Ukraine war decreases food affordability but could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. Communications Earth & Environment (2024).
2. Trade scenarios compensating for halted wheat and maize exports from Russia and Ukraine increase carbon emissions without easing food insecurity. Nature Food (2022).
3. The Russia-Ukraine war: Implications for global and regional food security and potential policy responses. Global Food Security (2023).
4. Food security vulnerability due to trade dependencies on Russia and Ukraine. Food Security (2022).
5. The Ukraine war and rising commodity prices: Implications for developing countries. Global Food Security (2023).