Genetic Adaptation of Forest Trees to Climate Change

Forest trees exhibit substantial genetic variation that underpins their capacity to adapt to rapidly changing climates. Local adaptation, shaped by historical patterns of temperature and precipitation, favours genotypes optimised for specific environments, while phenotypic plasticity allows individual trees to adjust growth and phenology in response to short‐term climatic fluctuations. However, the pace of contemporary warming often exceeds the natural rate of migration and in situ adaptation, creating mismatches between tree populations and emerging climates. To address these challenges, researchers are investigating assisted migration and assisted gene flow as proactive interventions, transferring pre-adapted seeds or pollen to planting sites projected to experience new temperature and moisture regimes. At the same time, studies of trade-offs among growth, stress tolerance, defence and reproductive traits are clarifying constraints on multivariate adaptation. Integrating quantitative genetics, common-garden trials and ecological modelling has revealed both the promise and the limitations of genetic strategies to sustain forest resilience, carbon sequestration and biodiversity under future environmental scenarios.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have modelled the use of assisted migration to sustain the carbon-sequestration capacity of European forests by matching seed provenances to projected future climates. Simulations suggest that sourcing seed from climates analogous to those expected later this century could maintain or even enhance above-ground carbon sinks, whereas reliance on local genotypes alone may lead to significant declines. In parallel, large-scale provenance trials of temperate conifers have quantified growth responses to warming, demonstrating that populations originating from cooler parts of a species’ range often show positive growth gains under increased temperatures, while those from warmer origins may experience growth declines. These findings highlight the dual role of provenance selection and landscape-scale gene flow in facilitating rapid adaptation to ongoing temperature shifts.

Genetic Adaptation of Forest Trees to Climate Change publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in genetic adaptation of forest trees to climate change across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Local adaptation: Genetic differentiation among populations that confers higher fitness in their native environments.

Assisted migration: Deliberate transfer of seeds or seedlings to sites predicted to become climatically suitable in the future.

Provenance: Geographical origin of seed or breeding material, reflecting local adaptation to climate and soil conditions.

Phenotypic plasticity: Ability of a genotype to express different phenotypes in response to environmental variation.

Gene flow: Movement of genes among populations via pollen or seed, influencing genetic diversity and adaptive potential.

References

1. Assisted tree migration can preserve the European forest carbon sink under climate change. Nature Climate Change (2024).
2. Trade-offs and Trait Integration in Tree Phenotypes: Consequences for the Sustainable Use of Genetic Resources. Current Forestry Reports (2024).
3. Assisted Migration Field Tests in Canada and Mexico: Lessons, Limitations, and Challenges. Forests (2020).
4. Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evolutionary Applications (2008).
5. Long‐distance gene flow and adaptation of forest trees to rapid climate change. Ecology Letters (2012).
6. Time to get moving: assisted gene flow of forest trees. Evolutionary Applications (2015).
7. Assessing the anticipated growth response of northern conifer populations to a warming climate. Scientific Reports (2017).