Geotechnical Risk Assessment in Tunnel Construction

Geotechnical risk assessment in tunnel construction encompasses the systematic identification, analysis and management of hazards arising from subsurface conditions, geological structures and construction activities. It begins with detailed site investigation and characterisation of soil and rock mass, followed by classification of potential failure modes such as collapse, water ingress, gas outburst and slope instability. Quantitative and qualitative methods are then applied to estimate likelihoods and consequences, informing design choices, support measures and monitoring strategies. During construction, real-time data from instrumentation and visual inspections feed back into risk models, allowing dynamic reappraisal and timely mitigation. Advances in computational methods and multi-source data integration have enhanced predictive accuracy, reducing delays, cost overruns and safety incidents. Globally, rigorous geotechnical risk assessment underpins sustainable tunnel projects for transportation, water supply, energy and urban infrastructure, balancing economic efficiency with the protection of lives and the environment.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have introduced a multi-source information fusion framework that integrates probabilistic, deterministic and expert-based approaches for collapse risk analysis in tunnelling. By combining Bayesian networks, cloud models, support vector machines and Dempster–Shafer evidence theory, and simulating uncertainties via Monte Carlo techniques, this method synthesises statistical data, sensor outputs and expert judgements into a unified evaluation. Applied to a highway tunnel project, the approach achieved over 98 % accuracy and demonstrated robustness against biased inputs, outperforming single-source models. Crucially, it identifies the most critical risk factors at an early stage and quantifies confidence levels, enabling proactive reinforcement and risk-control measures tailored to evolving geological and operational conditions.

Geotechnical Risk Assessment in Tunnel Construction publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in geotechnical risk assessment in tunnel construction across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Geotechnical risk assessment: systematic process of identifying, analysing and managing earth-related hazards in construction projects.

Bayesian network: graphical model representing probabilistic relationships among risk factors, enabling conditional inference and real-time updating.

Fuzzy set theory: mathematical framework that handles imprecision by assigning degrees of membership to elements in risk categories.

Dempster–Shafer evidence theory: method for combining evidence from multiple sources to calculate belief functions and manage uncertainty.

Cloud model: technique that translates qualitative concepts into quantitative probability distributions, reflecting both randomness and fuzziness.

Monte Carlo simulation: computational algorithm using repeated random sampling to estimate the distribution of possible outcomes.

Support vector machine: supervised learning model that classifies data by finding optimal boundaries in high-dimensional feature spaces.

Causal network: directed graph that maps causal relationships among risk drivers and events, supporting transparent analysis and matrix construction.

References

1. Proposing a new methodology based on fuzzy logic for tunnelling risk assessment. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management (2014).
2. A Dynamic Risk Assessment Method for Deep‐Buried Tunnels Based on a Bayesian Network. Geofluids (2020).
3. A Causal Network-Based Risk Matrix Model Applicable to Shield TBM Tunneling Projects. Sustainability (2021).
4. A multi-source information fusion approach in tunnel collapse risk analysis based on improved Dempster–Shafer evidence theory. Scientific Reports (2022).