Hydro-Climatic Variability and Impact Assessment in East African Basins
Summary
East African river basins, including the Nile tributaries and inland catchments of Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, exhibit high inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability in rainfall and temperature. This variability is driven by complex interactions of the Indian Ocean Dipole, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and regional topography. Seasonal regimes such as the ‘Belg’ (long rains) and ‘Kiremt’ (main rains) change in timing and intensity under contemporary climate change, leading to alternating episodes of drought and flood. Hydrological extremes threaten water supply, hydropower generation and rainfed agriculture, while altering sediment transport, groundwater recharge and ecosystem services. Advances in hydrodynamic modelling, combined analysis of meteorological and satellite data, and the use of multiple drought indices have improved our ability to characterise hazard frequency, duration and spatial extent. Integrating impact assessments with scenario analyses and participatory approaches is central to developing robust adaptation measures for smallholder livelihoods, transboundary water sharing and infrastructure resilience.
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Hydro-Climatic Variability and Impact Assessment in East African Basins publication trend
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Technical terms
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI): A normalised index measuring meteorological drought based on precipitation anomalies over specified timescales.
Vegetation Condition Index (VCI): A satellite-derived metric comparing current vegetation greenness to historical extremes to assess agricultural stress.
Streamflow Drought Index (SDI): An indicator quantifying hydrological drought through deviations of streamflow from long-term averages.
Standard Anomaly Index (SAI): A normalised index representing the deviation of a climatic variable (e.g., rainfall) from its long-term mean.
Coefficient of Variation (CV): The ratio of the standard deviation to the mean of a dataset, expressed as a percentage to describe relative variability.
References
- Characterization of flood and drought hazards on the Gereb-Geba water supply dam in the semi-arid northern Ethiopian highlands. Geomatics Natural Hazards and Risk (2023).
- Analysis of Climate Variability and Trends in Southern Ethiopia. Climate (2021).
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