Hydrodynamic Modeling of Coastal Sea Levels

Hydrodynamic modelling of coastal sea levels encompasses the representation of water motion and sea‐level variability in nearshore environments, capturing processes from tidal cycles and storm surges to long‐term sea‐level rise. These models solve equations governing fluid dynamics, typically on a gridded domain, and incorporate forcing from tides, atmospheric pressure, wind stress and river discharge. Advances in numerical schemes, data assimilation and nested‐grid approaches have enhanced resolution and predictive skill, enabling detailed simulation of complex bathymetries and coastline geometries. Such models underpin risk assessments for coastal flooding, inform the design of defence structures and support operational forecasting. They also provide scenario projections under rising global sea levels and changing storm climatologies, revealing interactions among tides, waves, surges and seiches. By integrating process‐based simulations with statistical and machine‐learning techniques, current research is extending both forecast lead times and the representation of compound events, thereby strengthening the capacity of communities to anticipate and mitigate coastal hazards worldwide.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have introduced dynamical indicators and non-stationary analyses to characterise extreme sea‐level events in a complex lagoon system. One work devised metrics that combine extreme‐value theory with dynamical systems approaches to distinguish constructive interference of atmospheric surges and tides, and assessed the effectiveness of movable barriers in attenuating event persistence. A complementary study employed spectral decomposition and multivariate statistical models to dissect contributions from storm surges, tides and long-term forcings, revealing a positive trend in non-tidal extremes and emphasising the need for adaptive flood management under evolving sea‐level rise and atmospheric variability.

Hydrodynamic Modeling of Coastal Sea Levels publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in hydrodynamic modeling of coastal sea levels across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Storm surge: Temporary elevation of sea level caused by atmospheric pressure changes and wind stress during storms, superimposed on the astronomical tide.

Sea-surface height (SSH): Vertical displacement of the sea surface relative to a reference level, encompassing tides, surges and longer-term sea-level change.

Copula: Statistical function that models the dependence structure between two or more random variables, used here to link tidal and surge components.

Numerical nesting: Multi‐scale modelling technique in which a high-resolution local model is embedded within a coarser regional model to enhance detail in areas of interest.

References

1. Investigating extreme sea level components and their interactions in the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian Seas. Weather and Climate Extremes (2023).
2. HIDRA2: deep-learning ensemble sea level and storm tide forecasting in the presence of seiches – the case of the northern Adriatic. Geoscientific Model Development (2023).
3. Sea level and temperature extremes in a regulated Lagoon of Venice. Frontiers in Climate (2024).
4. Dynamical diagnostic of extreme events in Venice lagoon and their mitigation with the MoSE. Scientific Reports (2023).