Hydrological Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change

Land use transformations and climatic variation jointly shape the movement, storage and quality of freshwater across catchments worldwide. Conversions among forest, agriculture, grassland and urban impervious surfaces alter infiltration rates, soil moisture dynamics and the partitioning of precipitation between surface runoff and subsurface flow. Meanwhile, shifts in temperature and precipitation regimes modulate evapotranspiration, seasonal snowpack dynamics and the frequency of extreme wet or dry periods. Together, these drivers influence water yield, groundwater recharge and streamflow variability, with implications for flood risk, water security and ecosystem services. Advances in hydrological modelling have enabled the separation of land use and climate effects, revealing region-specific sensitivities and threshold responses. In densely populated or agriculturally intensive regions, increases in impervious cover and deforestation tend to elevate peak flows and reduce baseflow, exacerbating flood hazards and summer water scarcity. In semi-arid environments, afforestation policies or shifts to rainfed cropping can moderate runoff but may intensify evapotranspiration demands. Climate warming generally amplifies evaporative losses and alters seasonal runoff patterns, often synchronising with land use impacts to produce nonlinear changes in water availability. An integrated perspective is therefore essential to inform adaptive land management, catchment restoration and water-resource planning under a changing climate.

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Hydrological Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in hydrological impacts of land use and climate change across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Land use/land cover (LULC): The classification of land surface according to human management and natural vegetation types, which influences hydrological responses.

Surface runoff: The portion of precipitation that flows over the land surface towards streams and rivers rather than infiltrating into the soil.

Evapotranspiration: The combined loss of water to the atmosphere by evaporation from soil and water surfaces and by transpiration from vegetation.

Groundwater recharge: The process by which water percolates through soil and rock to replenish aquifers.

Streamflow: The flow rate or discharge of water moving through a river channel, reflecting the integrated hydrological response of a catchment.

References

1. Assessing impacts of land use/land cover changes on the hydrology of Upper Gilgel Abbay watershed using the SWAT model. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research (2023).
2. Impacts of land use and land cover change on surface runoff, discharge and low flows: Evidence from East Africa. Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies (2018).
3. Effects of land use/land cover and climate changes on surface runoff in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (2017).