Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Arid Regions

Arid regions, defined by low and erratic precipitation, are especially sensitive to shifts in climate patterns. Rising temperatures increase potential evapotranspiration, reducing soil moisture and groundwater recharge. At the same time, rainfall events tend to become more intense but less frequent, provoking sharper runoff peaks and heightened flash‐flood risk. Surface water dynamics are further altered by expanding impervious areas in rapidly urbanising deserts, which accelerate overland flow and reduce infiltration. Conversely, declining baseflows in ephemeral streams undermine traditional water‐storage strategies and intensify competition for marginal groundwater resources. Recent advances in remote sensing and distributed hydrological modelling have improved quantification of these processes, enabling more accurate projections of water availability under future climate scenarios. Adaptation measures such as enhanced rainwater harvesting, managed aquifer recharge and targeted cloud‐seeding programmes are gaining traction as complementary strategies to conventional supply augmentation. Understanding the interplay of climatic drivers, land‐surface feedbacks and human interventions is crucial to safeguarding water security and ecosystem services across the world’s drylands.

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Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Arid Regions publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in hydrological responses to climate change in arid regions across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Runoff coefficient: Ratio of surface runoff volume to total rainfall input.

Evapotranspiration: Combined process of water loss through soil evaporation and plant transpiration.

Rainwater harvesting: Collection and storage of precipitation for later use in irrigation or domestic supply.

Cloud seeding: Deliberate introduction of particles into clouds to stimulate precipitation formation.

References

1. Rethinking water security in a warming climate: rainfall enhancement as an innovative augmentation technique. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2023).
2. Effects of Land Cover Change on Urban Floods and Rainwater Harvesting: A Case Study in Sharjah, UAE. Water (2018).
3. The Impact of Spatiotemporal Changes in Land Development (1984–2019) on the Increase in the Runoff Coefficient in Erbil, Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Remote Sensing (2020).