Jet Stream Variability in Climate Systems

The jet streams are high‐altitude, narrow bands of westerly winds that circumnavigate the globe near the tropopause and exert a controlling influence on weather and climate patterns. Variability in their speed, latitude and waviness arises from interactions between large‐scale pressure gradients, surface temperature contrasts and upper‐tropospheric circulation anomalies. Changes in the meridional position of the jet modulate storm tracks, precipitation distribution and the occurrence of temperature extremes, while zonal shifts and meanders can induce blocking events that prolong heatwaves or cold spells. Long‐term observations and reconstructions reveal that jets respond sensitively to anthropogenic warming, Arctic amplification and multidecadal sea‐surface temperature fluctuations, leading to altered patterns of atmospheric wave propagation and feedbacks with oceanic and land processes. Improved understanding of these mechanisms is essential for enhancing seasonal to decadal climate prediction, assessing risks to agriculture and infrastructure, and formulating adaptation strategies under a changing climate.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have extended jet‐stream reconstructions back to the early eighteenth century by combining tree‐ring chronologies from Europe and the Mediterranean. These reconstructions reveal an unprecedented increase in interannual variance of the North Atlantic jet since the 1960s, consistent with more sinuous patterns and enhanced quasi‐resonant amplification linking Arctic warming to mid‐latitude extremes. Complementary work has elucidated how the Atlantic multidecadal variability drives decadal shifts in Siberian warm‐season precipitation via a Rossby wave train. Sea‐surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic excite large‐scale wave activity that alters jet latitude and strength, thereby modulating moisture transport into continental interiors and shaping regional hydroclimate trends.

Research from all publishers

A study of persistent North Atlantic jet anomalies demonstrates that long‐lasting departures in jet speed or latitude markedly increase the frequency of surface temperature and precipitation extremes across Europe. By applying large deviation theory to models and reanalysis data, researchers have quantified how anomalously zonal or fast jets produce widespread heatwaves and intense rainfall events. In the Southern Hemisphere, application of a latitudinal displacement metric shows that both polar and subtropical jets have become systematically wavier in austral winter. The subtropical jet has also undergone a significant poleward migration and speed increase, with implications for the stability of the lower‐stratospheric polar vortex. Investigations of intraseasonal oscillations further reveal a robust 20–30 day periodicity in Southern Hemisphere storm tracks, particularly over the South Pacific, offering potential for improved subseasonal forecasting of extreme weather.

Jet Stream Variability in Climate Systems publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in jet stream variability in climate systems across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Jet stream: A narrow, fast‐flowing air current near the tropopause that guides weather systems.

Rossby wave: Large‐scale meanders in the mid‐latitude westerlies driven by the planet’s rotation and temperature gradients.

Atlantic multidecadal variability: Low‐frequency oscillation in North Atlantic sea‐surface temperatures on 50–80 year timescales.

Intraseasonal variability: Atmospheric fluctuations occurring over periods of weeks to a few months within a single season.

Meridional displacement: North–south shifts in the latitude of the jet stream core.

References

1. Recent enhanced high-summer North Atlantic Jet variability emerges from three-century context. Nature Communications (2018).
2. Remote influence of Atlantic multidecadal variability on Siberian warm season precipitation. Scientific Reports (2015).
3. Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe. Environmental Research Letters (2023).
4. Waviness of the Southern Hemisphere wintertime polar and subtropical jets. Weather and Climate Dynamics (2023).
5. Regional Features of the 20–30 Day Periodic Behavior in the Southern Hemisphere Summer Circulation. Geophysical Research Letters (2023).