Political Trust Dynamics During Crises

Political trust underpins citizens’ confidence in elected institutions and decision-makers, shaping compliance in emergencies. During crises, trust often undergoes dynamic shifts characterised by an initial mobilisation of public support followed by varying trajectories of stability or decline. Scholars attribute early trust surges to the rally-round-the-flag effect, where perceived external threats enhance solidarity and deference to authority. However, the persistence of trust depends on government performance, communication strategies and pre-existing partisan divides. Crises such as pandemics, wars and significant security threats reveal that trust dynamics are contingent upon salience of policy measures, emotional responses, information environments and institutional credibility. Understanding these dynamics is vital for ensuring effective crisis management and sustaining democratic legitimacy worldwide.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Analyses of the UK’s experience during the COVID-19 pandemic document a marked increase in general and leadership trust at the outbreak of lockdown in March 2020, followed by a steady erosion to pre-pandemic levels by October. This work highlights how specific national events, policy decisions and communication efforts coincide with fluctuations in political trust, emphasising the importance of strategies aimed at sustaining public confidence over the course of an extended crisis.

Political Trust Dynamics During Crises publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in political trust dynamics during crises across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Political trust: The citizen’s willingness to accept decisions and actions by political institutions based on perceptions of competence, fairness and integrity.

Rally-round-the-flag effect: A short-term increase in public support for government and institutions in the face of an external threat or crisis.

Polarisation: The process by which public opinion or party positions diverge into distinct ideological or attitudinal camps, reducing consensus.

Salience: The prominence or perceived importance of an issue or policy in public and political discourse, influencing attention and support.

References

1. Changes in political trust in Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: integrated public opinion evidence and implications. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (2021).
2. Rallying around the EU flag: Russia's invasion of Ukraine and attitudes toward European integration. JCMS Journal of Common Market Studies (2022).
3. Emotions, governmental trust and support for the restriction of civil liberties during the covid‐19 pandemic. European Journal of Political Research (2022).