Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Dynamics in Stratospheric Climate Systems

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a dominant mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere, characterised by alternating easterly and westerly wind regimes descending slowly from about 10 hPa to 100 hPa with a mean period of roughly 28 months. This oscillation influences global circulation by modulating wave propagation, altering the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex and interacting with tropospheric phenomena. Through a combination of wave–mean flow interactions, tropical upwelling and subtropical transport, the QBO exerts a far-reaching control on seasonal to interannual climate variability. Its phases affect the distribution of ozone and other trace gases, modify the timing and intensity of monsoon rainfall, shape teleconnections to mid-latitude weather patterns and modulate the activity of intraseasonal convective systems such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Recent advances have deepened understanding of the vertical structure of QBO amplitude changes, the role of non-orographic gravity waves, and the pathways by which stratospheric wind anomalies influence surface climate across Eurasia, North America and East Asia. The global significance of the QBO lies in its capacity to improve seasonal forecasts, inform climate model development and anticipate regional extremes of temperature and precipitation.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have shown that the QBO modulates East Asian summer drought and flood patterns by acting as a key predictor in statistical models that capture up to 75 % of precipitation variance three months in advance. A westerly phase in the tropical stratosphere is associated with enhanced northern flood activity, while an easterly phase favours southern drought, offering a novel precursor for seasonal disaster prevention. Parallel research has elucidated a winter teleconnection mechanism whereby the westerly QBO phase at about 70 hPa enhances planetary wave propagation into the extratropics, raising polar sea level pressure and promoting colder and snowier conditions over Eurasia and North America. The easterly phase reverses these anomalies. This pathway operates independently of classical stratospheric pathways and refines our ability to predict sub-seasonal climate variability across mid-latitudes.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Dynamics in Stratospheric Climate Systems publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in quasi-biennial oscillation dynamics in stratospheric climate systems across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO): A regular reversal of equatorial zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere with an average period of about 28 months.

Teleconnection: A climate linkage whereby atmospheric anomalies in one region influence weather patterns in distant areas via large-scale circulation pathways.

Planetary wave: Large-scale atmospheric waves (also known as Rossby waves) driven by the Earth’s rotation and latitudinal temperature contrasts, which propagate energy and momentum across hemispheres.

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO): A dominant intraseasonal tropical phenomenon characterised by an eastward-moving pulse of cloud and rainfall anomalies, affecting global atmospheric circulation.

References

1. A stratospheric precursor of East Asian summer droughts and floods. Nature Communications (2024).
2. Teleconnection of the Quasi-biennial oscillation with boreal winter surface climate in Eurasia and North America. Communications Earth & Environment (2024).
3. QBO modulation of MJO teleconnections in the North Pacific: impact of preceding MJO phases. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2024).
4. Tropical Stratospheric Forcings Weaken the Response of the East Asian Winter Temperature to ENSO. Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research (2023).
5. Distinct changes in the vertical structure of QBO amplitude due to tropical upwelling and wave forcing. Environmental Research Letters (2025).