Temperature-Dependent Development Models in Insect Populations

Temperature-dependent development models quantify the influence of ambient temperature on the life-cycle progression of insects, enabling prediction of stage-specific rates such as egg hatch, larval growth and adult reproduction. Central to these approaches is the concept of degree-day accumulation, which sums daily thermal units above a defined lower threshold temperature to forecast milestone events. Linear models establish simple correlations between temperature and developmental rate within a moderate thermal range, whereas non-linear and enzyme-kinetic formulations capture the deceleration of development at extreme high or low temperatures. Modern approaches integrate stochastic simulation, age-stage two-sex life tables and spatial mapping to assess potential shifts in voltinism, geographic distribution and population abundance under current and future climates. These models underpin decision-support tools for pest management, informing optimal timing of interventions, quarantine measures and biological control release. Recent advances emphasise refinement of oviposition models to account for pre-oviposition phases and fluctuating thermal regimes, as well as coupling of phenology models with remote sensing and geographic information systems to produce high-resolution risk maps. Collectively, these developments have global significance for agriculture, public health and biodiversity conservation by improving the precision of forecasts for invasive species outbreaks, vector-borne disease transmission and pollinator phenology in a warming world.

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Temperature-Dependent Development Models in Insect Populations publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in temperature-dependent development models in insect populations across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Degree-day: A unit of accumulated thermal exposure above a species-specific lower threshold, used to predict development timing.

Lower developmental threshold: The minimal temperature below which development effectively ceases.

Thermal constant: The total number of degree-days required to complete a particular life-stage transition.

Phenology model: A mathematical framework that links environmental variables, chiefly temperature, to the timing of biological events.

Oviposition model: A description of egg-laying rate as a function of age and temperature, often partitioned into pre-oviposition and active phases.

References

1. Transporting Tenebrio molitor Eggs: The Effect of Temperature, Humidity and Time on the Hatch Rate. Sustainability (2023).
2. Predicting the Occurrence and Risk Damage Caused by the Two-Spotted Spider Mite Tetranychus urticae (Koch) in Dry Beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) Combining Rate and Heat Summation Models for Digital Decisions Support. Agriculture (2023).
3. Temperature Impacts the Development and Survival of Common Cutworm (Spodoptera litura): Simulation and Visualization of Potential Population Growth in India under Warmer Temperatures through Life Cycle Modelling and Spatial Mapping. PLOS ONE (2015).
4. Thermal effect on the fecundity and longevity of Bactrocera dorsalis adults and their improved oviposition model. PLOS ONE (2020).