Volcanic Seismology and Eruption Forecasting

Volcanic seismology examines the seismic signals generated by magma movement, gas release and fracturing within a volcanic edifice to infer subsurface processes and assess the likelihood of an imminent eruption. Continuous monitoring of seismicity—including discrete earthquakes, volcanic tremors and long-period events—provides insight into magma ascent, overpressure in conduits and changes in the plumbing system. Patterns of seismic energy release and waveform characteristics are analysed in real time to detect subtle shifts in volcanic unrest. Advances in data processing, automated event detection and machine-learning algorithms have enhanced the rapid identification of precursor signals that precede explosive or effusive activity. Eruption forecasting integrates seismic observations with geodetic deformation, gas flux measurements and thermal imaging to generate probabilistic assessments of timing, style and magnitude. Such forecasts underpin hazard mitigation strategies, inform evacuation planning and guide aviation advisories. With volcanoes affecting densely populated regions worldwide, improvements in seismic monitoring networks, sensor technologies and analytical methods are critical to reducing risk and improving resilience across diverse volcanic settings.

Research from Nature Portfolio

Recent studies have demonstrated the power of unsupervised learning to extract hidden tremor patterns from continuous seismic records, revealing clusters of volcanic tremors that signalled unrest prior to an eruption in Iceland. These patterns delineated phases of magma ascent, lava extrusion and shifts in eruptive intensity several days before surface activity. Complementing this, a machine-learning framework applied at a hydrothermally active volcano achieved real-time recognition of short-term eruption precursors. By identifying characteristic energy bursts several hours before explosive events, the model issued forecasts with multi-hour lead times, illustrating the potential to automate alerts and improve early warning capabilities at high-risk sites.

Volcanic Seismology and Eruption Forecasting publication trend

The graph below shows the total number of articles in volcanic seismology and eruption forecasting across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).

Technical terms

Volcanic tremor: A continuous, low-frequency seismic signal generated by sustained magma or gas movement within volcanic conduits.

Very Long Period (VLP) signals: Seismic waves with periods longer than two seconds, typically associated with chamber inflation, gas slug ascent or fluid-driven processes.

Real-Time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM): A continuous index of seismic energy averaged over defined intervals, used to track eruption precursors and unrest levels.

Volcano-Tectonic (VT) earthquake: A high-frequency seismic event caused by brittle failure of rock in response to magma pressure changes or tectonic stresses.

References

1. Tremor clustering reveals pre-eruptive signals and evolution of the 2021 Geldingadalir eruption of the Fagradalsfjall Fires, Iceland. Communications Earth & Environment (2024).
2. A Review of the Source Characteristics and Physical Mechanisms of Very Long Period (VLP) Seismic Signals at Active Volcanoes. Surveys in Geophysics (2023).
3. Automatic precursor recognition and real-time forecasting of sudden explosive volcanic eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand. Nature Communications (2020).
4. Short-Term Forecasting and Detection of Explosions During the 2016–2017 Eruption of Bogoslof Volcano, Alaska. Frontiers in Earth Science (2018).
5. Using a process-based model of pre-eruptive seismic patterns to forecast evolving eruptive styles at Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research (2019).