Abstract
Sodium (Na) is an essential nutrient for animals, but not for most plants. Consequently, herbivores may confront a mismatch between forage availability and metabolic requirement. Recent work suggests that larger-bodied mammals may be particularly susceptible to Na deficits, yet it is unknown whether Na availability constrains the density or distribution of large herbivores at broad scales. Here we show that plant-Na availability varies >1,000-fold across sub-Saharan Africa and helps explain continent-scale patterns of large-herbivore abundance. We combined field data with machine-learning approaches to generate high-resolution maps of plant Na, which revealed multi-scale gradients arising from sea-salt deposition, hydrology, soil chemistry and plant traits. Faecal Na concentration was positively correlated with modelled dietary Na, supporting the prediction that variation in plant Na is a major determinant of herbivore Na intake. Incorporating plant-Na availability improved model predictions of large-herbivore population density, especially for megaherbivore species, which are depressed in very-low-Na regions (<100 mg kg−1), consistent with Na limitation. Our study offers an explanation for the scarcity of megaherbivores in parts of Central and West Africa, which has major ecological ramifications given the strong influence of large herbivores on ecosystem functioning and the profound human-induced changes to Na availability in Africa and beyond.
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Data availability
All data reported in this study are available via figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25639080 (ref. 84). Source data are provided with this paper.
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All associated code generated in this study is available via figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25639080 (ref. 84).
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Acknowledgements
We acknowledge many funding bodies that have facilitated this project, including NASA awards 16-HW16_2-0025 and 18-SLSCVC18-0032 (C.E.D. and A.J.A.), a Google Earth Engine research award (C.E.D. and A.J.A.), Horizon Europe Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions grant agreement number 101062339 (A.J.A.), the Royal Society Newton International Fund and the Independent Research Fund Denmark’s (Danmarks Frie Forskningsfond (DFF)) Inge Lehmann programme under grant agreement number 1131-00006B (E.L.R.), the Carlsberg Foundation Semper Ardens project MegaPast2Future grant CF16-0005 (J.-C.S.), the Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) funded by Danish National Research Foundation (grant DNRF173) and VILLUM Investigator project ‘Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World’ funded by VILLUM FONDEN grant 16549 (J.-C.S.), AfricanBioServices project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 641918 (J.G.C.H. and M.P.V.) and the US National Science Foundation IOS-1656527, DEB-2225088 (R.M.P.). We thank the management and staff of all wildlife reserves within which research was conducted. In particular, we thank the Tswalu Foundation for their financial support and facilitation of this project. We also thank K. Parr, E. Lundgren, O. Baines and members of the International Network to study Deposition and Atmospheric composition in Africa (INDAAF) for helpful comments during the preparation of this paper, J. Lloyd and K. Rode for sharing of data and D. Leese and S. Abraham for their help in collecting faecal samples.
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A.J.A., C.E.D., T.P.-J., E.R.T. and M.B.J.H. developed and framed the research question. A.J.A., J.C., T.P.-J., A.B.W. and C.D. conducted fieldwork specifically for this project. A.B.W. and P.D.J. conducted laboratory analysis. A.J.A., G.P.H. and L.L.T. collated datasets required for this study. E.L.R., D.A., C.A.C., P.J.F., R.M.H., G.P.H., C.J., F.V.L., Y.M., A.M., N.N., N.O.-S., A.B.P., R.M.P., H.H.T.P., J.M.R., L.S., F.V.D.P., M.P.V. and J.-C.S. contributed data. A.J.A., C.M., M.C., E.S.D., T.P.-J. and C.R. performed statistical analysis. A.J.A. wrote the first draft of the paper, and all authors contributed substantially to revisions.
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Extended data
Extended Data Fig. 1 Plant sodium (Na) concentrations across sub-Saharan Africa.
(A) Relationship between median community foliar Na concentration and aerosol deposition (see Fig. S3b). Increased opacity of points represents an increased number of measurements recorded within the foliar community. Trend lines for C3 and C4 plant functional groups represent ordinary least squares fits weighted by the log10 + 1 number of measurements recorded within each community (cf. Figure 1). Error bars represent Standard Error. Median measured community foliar Na concentration for C3 plants (B) and C4 grasses (C) located across sub-Saharan Africa. The cluster of grass points in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem is illustrated at higher spatial resolution for clarity. Map elements created with Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com).
Extended Data Fig. 2 Performance of machine learning models used to predict plant sodium (Na) concentrations across sub-Saharan Africa.
Root mean squared error (RMSE) and R2 model performance metrics of the buffered leave-one-out cross validation (BLOOCV) for (a, b) median and (c, d) 95th percentile foliar Na concentration prediction models. The black circles above the first graph represents the average number of training points removed from within each buffer distance. CUBIST = cubist model; GBM = Gradient boosted model; NNET = neural network model; RF = random forest model; SPATIAL = kernel smoothing model; SSA = sea salt aerosol model; SVM = support vector machine model. e) Spatial mapping of distance to the nearest training point across sub-Saharan Africa. Contour lines represent 300 km intervals. Map elements created with Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com).
Extended Data Fig. 3 Spatial mapping of 95th percentile plant foliar sodium (Na) concentration for (a) C3 and (b) C4 plant functional groups at a 0.1° resolution across sub-Saharan Africa.
This is representative of plant Na availability to herbivores under a selective foraging scenario. To better visualise geographic patterns, concentrations have been plotted on a log10 scale. Silhouettes from PhyloPic under a Creative Commons license CC0 1.0: plant, T. Michael Keesey; grass, Mason McNair; map elements created with Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com).
Extended Data Fig. 4 Drivers of foliar sodium (Na) concentration across sub-Saharan Africa.
Partial dependence plots for predicting foliar median (unselective foraging scenario) and 95th percentile (selective foraging scenario) sodium (Na) concentration using the ensemble model. The relationship between foliar Na concentration (yhat) and each variable is highlighted by the red line. Note: the scale for aridity is non-intuitive, with lower scores reflecting more arid environments.
Extended Data Fig. 5 Herbivore sodium (Na) intake as a function of plant Na gradients.
Relationship between modelled dietary forage Na concentration and field-measured herbivore faecal Na concentration using the unselective foraging scenario. Points and vertical error bars represent the mean ± 1 SD faecal Na concentration per genus per protected area. The total number of independent points is n = 111 from 20 genera across 20 protected areas. Note that axes are on log10 scales to emphasise attention on low-values that may be indicative of Na limitation. The black line represents the fit of a linear mixed effects model with species included as a random effect. The marginal R2 (fixed effects) denotes the proportion of variance explained by dietary Na availability. Analogous results for the 95th percentile (selective) scenario are in Fig. 2a.
Extended Data Fig. 6 Drivers of large-herbivore density across sub-Saharan Africa.
Partial dependence plots for covariates in the best generalised additive mixed model (GAMM) for estimating large-herbivore density using all available observations. Plots indicate how large-herbivore density is predicted to change across the range of each covariate. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. For interaction plots, blue colours indicate density decrease, and red colours density increase. Map elements created with Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com).
Extended Data Fig. 7 Drivers of megaherbivore density across sub-Saharan Africa.
Partial dependence plots for covariates in the best generalised additive mixed model (GAMM) for estimating large-herbivore density using megaherbivore observations only. Plots indicate how megaherbivore density is predicted to change across the range of each covariate. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. For interaction plots, blue colours indicate density decrease, and red colours density increase. Map elements created with Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com).
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Abraham, A.J., Hempson, G.P., le Roux, E. et al. Sodium constraints on megaherbivore communities in Africa. Nat Ecol Evol 10, 105–116 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-025-02917-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-025-02917-y
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