Fig. 1: Observed and modelled age distributions of mpox cases.
From: Role of community and sexual contacts as drivers of MPXV clade I
a, Clade Ia cases with suspected human-to-human exposure from the Tshuapa province of the DRC from 2011 to 2015 (n = 279 cases). Those aged 34 years and older were assumed to be smallpox immunized. b, Cases from clade Ia-endemic provinces in the DRC from January to mid-August 2024 (n = 482). Those aged 45 years and older were assumed to be immunized. c–f, Clade Ib cases from multiple settings in the DRC (North and South Kivu (c), the Kamituga health zone (d) and other health zones (e)) from January to mid-August 2024 (n = 1,377, 725 and 510, respectively) and in Burundi from mid-September to October 2024 (f; n = 945). Those aged 45 years and older were assumed to be immunized. Half-transparent lines represent the model fit without assuming transmission through sexual contact. Dots and whiskers represent the observed age distributions among cases and their 95% confidence intervals.
