Extended Data Fig. 1: Spatial distribution of transported effects of mass drug administration in the post-intervention year (2022).

Polygons indicate communes. Panel (a) shows the percent reduction in malaria, expressed as 1 - the ratio of cases in the MDA vs. control arm during the transmission season of the post-intervention year (2022), estimated using doubly robust transportability models. Covariates included in transportability models included precipitation, temperature, enhanced vegetation index, and population density. The final covariate included in transportability models varied between communes following screening for collinearity, data sparsity, association with the malaria case count, and feature selection using elastic net regression. Transportability analyses were restricted to communes where SMC was routinely offered during the trial period, had a population size <152 per km, and a predicted probability of trial selection (P(S)) of >0.75. Separate analyses were performed for each Commune-month (N = 366 per Commune). Panel (b) indicates whether the 95% confidence interval for transported estimates for each commune included the null. Panel (c) depicts uncertainty, shown as half the length of the 95% confidence interval, estimated using a non-parametric bootstrapping procedure that resampled commune-months within trial datasets and months within the non-trial commune 1,000 times with replacement.