Extended Data Fig. 2: Transported effect estimates of mass drug administration to non-trial areas during the post-intervention year (2022) and covariates used in transportability analysis.

Panel (a) depicts covariates used in the transportability analysis for each commune. Colored points indicate covariates included in the transportability models after screening for collinearity, data sparsity, association with the malaria case count, and feature selection using elastic net regression. Blue and yellow shaded points indicate the standardized mean difference for a given covariate in a given commune, calculated as the mean difference between the non-trial commune and trial site divided by the pooled standard deviation. White points indicate covariates that did not pass screening. In Panel (b), colored points indicate transported effect for each Commune, expressed as the percent reduction in malaria incidence (1 – the ratio of cases in the MDA vs. control arm) in the post-intervention year (2022). Colored vertical lines indicate 95% confidence interval for each commune, which was obtained from non-parametric bootstrap that resampled commune-months within trial datasets and months within non-trial areas for a given commune 1,000 times with replacement. Transportability analyses were performed separately for each commune using monthly data from July to December (N = 366 per commune). Transportability analyses restricted to communes with population size ≤152 per km, a predicted probability of trial participation >0.75, and where SMC was offered during the trial period.