Body Mass Index Trajectories and Cardiometabolic Risk
Summary
Body Mass Index (BMI) represents a simple anthropometric measure of weight relative to height and serves as a cornerstone in epidemiological studies of obesity and related health outcomes. BMI trajectories, defined as patterns of change in BMI over time, are increasingly recognised as key determinants of cardiometabolic risk. Early-life weight gain that exceeds normative rates often precedes adverse metabolic alterations, including insulin resistance, dyslipidaemia and hypertension, whereas stable or modest BMI increases tend to confer protection. By mapping these trajectories from infancy through adulthood, researchers can identify critical windows for intervention, tailor prevention strategies, and improve risk stratification across diverse populations.
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Body Mass Index Trajectories and Cardiometabolic Risk publication trend
The graph below shows the total number of articles in body mass index trajectories and cardiometabolic risk across all publications each year (not limited to Nature Index journals).
Technical terms
Body Mass Index (BMI): A ratio of weight to height squared (kg/m2) used to classify weight status in populations.
Latent Class Growth Modelling: A statistical method that identifies distinct subgroups sharing similar longitudinal patterns within a cohort.
Cardiometabolic Risk: A composite measure of factors including glucose intolerance, dyslipidaemia and blood pressure that predispose to cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes.
BMI Trajectory: The pattern of change in BMI over time, typically described by shape (e.g. stable, increasing) and timing of acceleration.
Insulin Resistance: A metabolic condition in which cells exhibit reduced response to insulin, leading to impaired glucose uptake.
References
- Associations of early childhood body mass index trajectories with body composition and cardiometabolic markers at age 10 years: the Ethiopian infant anthropometry and body composition (iABC) birth cohort study. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition (2024).
- Long-term body mass index trajectories and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease using healthcare data from UK Biobank participants. Atherosclerosis (2025).
- Developmental trajectories of body mass index from childhood into late adolescence and subsequent late adolescence–young adulthood cardiometabolic risk markers. Cardiovascular Diabetology (2019).
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